Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by JimH52, Oct 23, 2012.
Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
Pretty Simple Really...
What in particular do you think drives their accuracy and thus credibility ?
Get your lazy, confused and knuckle-headed self to the poll on Nov 2 like Michelle told ya
I look at the ubiquity of polls as being on the level of psychics. Make enough predictions about the future fate of celebrities and you will get lucky once in a while. Then hype the hits and don't mention the misses.
There is only one poll I care about; the voting booth.
It has Obama wining.
It is hard to say right now. I have only been following it for a couple weeks. A guy in my office told me about it and the uncanny accuracy in the past. If you read his methodolgy, it may give you and idea of the factors that he uses. Here is his methodology:
Methodology - NYTimes.com
Just curious. If I told you Rasmussen Reports and 538 have partnered and use the same methodology, would that matter since Rasmussen has Romney in the lead?
Presedential Polls 2012: Gallup and Rasmussen Reports Show Romney in the Lead : TravelersToday
Election 2012 - Rasmussen Reports
As we can see the numbers continue to trend toward the president.
Obama: EC votes: 290.8, Romney: 247.2.
And the presidents chances of winning are back above 70 percent, at 70.3.
Most importantly, Obama continues to maintain a lead in Ohio, where the polling average gives the president a 48.2 percent to 45.3 percent advantage over Romney.
Im a huge Obama supporter however, I thought PA was leaning aggressively Romney as of late. This poll has it close to locked up for Obama.
RCP composite starts to trend away from Obiedoodle and the fluffers and buttbois need to find a new pollster!
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