RadiomanATL
Senior Member
The Photo That Could Doom the Democrats - Page 1 - The Daily Beast
To understand why the Rangel scandals are so dangerous for Democrats, you need to understand something about midterm landslides: Theyre usually composed of three parts. First, the other partys activists are highly motivated. Second, your own activists are highly unmotivated. Third, independents want to burn Washington to the ground.
Theres nothing Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi can do about the first problem. The stimulus, the bank bailouts, the auto-takeover and the health-care push have convinced large numbers of aging white people that Obama is Mao Zedong, and theyre not going to change their mind anytime soon. The best response to the second problem is to pass health-care reform and give Keith Olbermann something to get excited about. But perhaps most crucial of all is responding to problem No. 3.
Independents are the most fickle, the most cynical, and the least ideological people in the American electorate. When theyre unhappy with the state of the country, they tend to stampede the party in powerless because they disagree on the issues than because they decide that the folks running government must be malevolent and corrupt. In Washington, congressmen violate ethics rules all the time. But when independents get in one of their sour moods, these infractions become matches on dry tinder. In 1994, the scandals concerning Rostenkowski and the House bank helped sweep the Gingrichites into power. In 2006, according to exit polls, the scandals surrounding mega-lobbyist Jack Abramoff and Rep. Mark Foley did more to lose the GOP control of Congress than did the Iraq war. Pelosi became speaker, in fact, by running against the GOPs culture of corruption and promising the most ethical Congress in history.
Now Republicans are hurling those phrases in her face. Democrats, who in April 2006 held a 17-point advantage as the party less influenced by lobbyists and special interests, have seen that margin dwindle to eight points, according to the Pew Research Center. The National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has begun running ads against Democrats who accepted donations from Rangel, and two of the partys most vulnerable congressmen, Alabamas Bobby Bright and New Hampshires Paul Hodes, have called for Rangel to step down as chairman. Call them the canaries in the coal mine.