The Official Dow 7000 thread

[Care4all]

i saw a guy on cnn who believes 600's could be a bottom, but he also believes the market right now is oversold and believes the short sellers are manipulating the market.

• The market is oversold
• The shorts are manipulating the market
• We could go to 600, which is only another 20% away. We have fallen 15% over the past 10 trading days so what's another 20%? We could get there by mid-March.

QUESTION:

If i have an old 401k account, that now has less in it than what i put in it originally 10 years ago when i opened it....and i close out this account and move what is left in it over to an IRA....

can I take a Capital Loss on what i actually lost, of what i originally put in? i don't think i can, but i am not certain???

 

[editec]

i saw a guy on cnn who believes 600's could be a bottom, but he also believes the market right now is oversold and believes the short sellers are manipulating the market.

• The market is oversold
• The shorts are manipulating the market
• We could go to 600, which is only another 20% away. We have fallen 15% over the past 10 trading days so what's another 20%? We could get there by mid-March.

QUESTION:

If i have an old 401k account, that now has less in it than what i put in it originally 10 years ago when i opened it....and i close out this account and move what is left in it over to an IRA....

can I take a Capital Loss on what i actually lost, of what i originally put in? i don't think i can, but i am not certain???

I'm no accountant but I cannot imainge that you cannot write off your loses.

If you cannot then there's something that truly DOES need to be fixed.

 

[Paulie]

Care I believe there's a certain amount of loss you can write off, and beyond that you lose. But I'm not positive what the amount is, or if I'm even correct about that. Toro will certainly have the answer.

As for the DOW, I'm still holding my Double short (DXD) position that I took at DOW 8600, and I'm stopping out at 6500. I believe 6500 will be the bottom if we reach that low. That will be a nice profit for me and it'll make up for some of the longs I've been day trading that I lost on, plus some extra.

After that, I'm out of the trading gig until the market gains some real momentum. Looks like that probably won't be until late this year or early next year.

At least we're not getting killed by inflation right now

 

[editec]

Care I believe there's a certain amount of loss you can write off, and beyond that you lose. But I'm not positive what the amount is, or if I'm even correct about that. Toro will certainly have the answer.

As for the DOW, I'm still holding my Double short (DXD) position that I took at DOW 8600, and I'm stopping out at 6500. I believe 6500 will be the bottom if we reach that low. That will be a nice profit for me and it'll make up for some of the longs I've been day trading that I lost on, plus some extra.

After that, I'm out of the trading gig until the market gains some real momentum. Looks like that probably won't be until late this year or early next year.

At least we're not getting killed by inflation right now

Just curious, Paulie.

I have no dog in this fight but what makes you arrive at the number 6500 as the bottom?

SWAG? Crystal ball?

 

[wimpy77]

well right now bernake is talking at thus far the markets haven't taken to perverable crap they usually take when someone from the fed opens their mouths

 

[Paulie]

Care I believe there's a certain amount of loss you can write off, and beyond that you lose. But I'm not positive what the amount is, or if I'm even correct about that. Toro will certainly have the answer.

As for the DOW, I'm still holding my Double short (DXD) position that I took at DOW 8600, and I'm stopping out at 6500. I believe 6500 will be the bottom if we reach that low. That will be a nice profit for me and it'll make up for some of the longs I've been day trading that I lost on, plus some extra.

After that, I'm out of the trading gig until the market gains some real momentum. Looks like that probably won't be until late this year or early next year.

At least we're not getting killed by inflation right now

Just curious, Paulie.

I have no dog in this fight but what makes you arrive at the number 6500 as the bottom?

SWAG? Crystal ball?

Just a hunch. 7000 will be a resistance level for sure, but if it breaks, I think the next resistance will be 6500. I'm betting that by then, we'll know more about what's going on with the economy and if something positive comes out about the financial system, capital will start coming back into the markets.

If it breaks 6500, I'm clueless. The bottom could literally be anywhere.

 

[wimpy77]

Care I believe there's a certain amount of loss you can write off, and beyond that you lose. But I'm not positive what the amount is, or if I'm even correct about that. Toro will certainly have the answer.

As for the DOW, I'm still holding my Double short (DXD) position that I took at DOW 8600, and I'm stopping out at 6500. I believe 6500 will be the bottom if we reach that low. That will be a nice profit for me and it'll make up for some of the longs I've been day trading that I lost on, plus some extra.

After that, I'm out of the trading gig until the market gains some real momentum. Looks like that probably won't be until late this year or early next year.

At least we're not getting killed by inflation right now

Just curious, Paulie.

I have no dog in this fight but what makes you arrive at the number 6500 as the bottom?

SWAG? Crystal ball?

Just a hunch. 7000 will be a resistance level for sure, but if it breaks, I think the next resistance will be 6500. I'm betting that by then, we'll know more about what's going on with the economy and if something positive comes out about the financial system, capital will start coming back into the markets.

If it breaks 6500, I'm clueless. The bottom could literally be anywhere.

well bernake said if they took all the necessary measures the economy could recover in the second half. i think they will pass another stimulus bill before the end of the year and they are gonna keep pumping capital into the banks.

 

[DavidS]

Well, that's it... whenever I say the market is going down, it goes up. Whenever I say it's going up, it goes down. Trying to understad the market is almost as difficult as trying to understand women...

 

[Care4all]

Well, that's it... whenever I say the market is going down, it goes up. Whenever I say it's going up, it goes down. Trying to understad the market is almost as difficult as trying to understand women...

whatever works, please keep saying it's going down....

THANK YOU in advance,

Care

 

[wimpy77]

bernake basically helped things today. he said the fed and the treasury will keep pumping money into the system to get this turned around. of course republicans didn't like that because well, they are republicans.

 

[wimpy77]

well the futures are down but as we know that doesn't mean anything. i didn't hear obama say anything that would spark a down opening. its up to geithner tomorrow and let's hope does a better job.

 

[Toro]

It's not surprising the market is down. Obama's speech was not particularly Wall Street-friendly.

I will be buying stock on the down open.

 

[wimpy77]

he basically called them out huh? but he told the truth. but he basically said the same thing bernanke did. they would keep pumping capital into the banks until they are fixed.

 

[toomuchtime_]

he basically called them out huh? but he told the truth. but he basically said the same thing bernanke did. they would keep pumping capital into the banks until they are fixed.

Actually, Obama went further than Bernanke. Bernanke only said they would stabilize the banks and he said there would be no economic recovery until the banks were stabilized, but he gave no indication they would ask for any more money than they had left from TARP. Obama made it clear that Congress was going to have to come up with a lot more money for the banks, but if you watched Pelosi during this part of the speech, it is not at all clear his party will back him on this. In fact, imo, the whole point of the speech was to try to preempt the anger that is sure to come from the public and the Congress when he finally does ask for hundreds of billions more to try to fix the banks.

 

[wimpy77]

at this point i think what needs to be done needs to be done. bernanke is right until the banks are fixed no amount of stimulus will work. how much more do you think they will end up asking for? another $700 billion.

 

[toomuchtime_]

at this point i think what needs to be done needs to be done. bernanke is right until the banks are fixed no amount of stimulus will work. how much more do you think they will end up asking for? another $700 billion.

That's a tough question. The estimates I've seen are that the banks need about $2 trillion more to function properly, but I doubt they will ask for that much at one time. I think they'll ask for a few to several hundred billion and explain they are trying to restore investor confidence in the banks so that the banks will be able to raise more money from private investors. When not enough private investors step forward, they'll go back to Congress to ask for a few hundred billion more and this will go on until they get to $2 trillion or so or Congress just says, no.

On the other hand, if some one could figure out a way to revive the market for the debt backed securities, the banks could raise their own capital without government help. When TARP was first being debated, some of the Republicans wanted to set up an insurance program that would have insured the value of these securities. The banks would pay an appropriate premium and the government would guarantee the value of the the bond. The idea was that by lowering the risk in this way, the market for these securities could be revived and the government wouldn't have to put up all that much money. In the worst case, since most of the underlying debts were good, the government's liability wouldn't have been too great. I thought this should have been tried regardless of what else we did, but Paulson dismissed it on the grounds it would take too long.

 

[DavidS]

Well, that's it... whenever I say the market is going down, it goes up. Whenever I say it's going up, it goes down. Trying to understad the market is almost as difficult as trying to understand women...

whatever works, please keep saying it's going down....

THANK YOU in advance,

Care

The market is going to tank today. Down at least 300. Maybe 400. Definitely won't go up at all.

 

[Toro]

Well, that's it... whenever I say the market is going down, it goes up. Whenever I say it's going up, it goes down. Trying to understad the market is almost as difficult as trying to understand women...

whatever works, please keep saying it's going down....

THANK YOU in advance,

Care

The market is going to tank today. Down at least 300. Maybe 400. Definitely won't go up at all.

David

Some advice. You will do a lot better investing if you remove words like "definitely won't" from your vocabulary.

As someone who has done this for two decades and has read hundreds of investment books, markets can and will do anything they want, no matter what you or I think about what should or should not happen. Trust me, that is a lesson I have learned the expensive way.

 

[DavidS]

So far I'm on my way of being right.... down 153 after we got existing home sales data... i.e. the housing market, the nexxus of this problem, is still having problems. We fix the housing market, we fix the economy.

We are only another 200 points away from 6999.

 

[editec]

Well, DavidS.

Looking at it another way, you had a 33.3...% chance of being right.

The Market could have gone up, or down, or stayed the same, yes?