The National Interest, a cerebral center-right think tank, says that Trump is right that America cannot lose a trade war. In an article titled "Trump Is Right: U.S. Can't Lose a Trade War," Salvatore Babones, a research fellow at The National Interest, argues that Trump is doing the right thing in trying to protect American jobs and industries with protectionist policies such as high tariffs. Here's an excerpt:
See also Babones' article The World Cries Wolf on U.S. Tariffs, in which he argues that Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum imports "are a logical and long-overdue response to decades of trade cheating by friends and foes alike."
Despite being widely ridiculed in the press, the homespun wisdom encapsulated in President Donald Trump's April 4 tweet that “When you’re already $500 Billion DOWN, you can’t lose!” is essentially correct. The only thing incorrect was the figure. The U.S. trade deficit was $568 billion in 2017, and that figure incorporates America's trade surplus in services. America's trade deficit in goods alone was a whopping $811 billion.
The headlines on April 4 blamed Trump for a 350-point intraday fall in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They neglected to credit Trump's for the fact that by the close of trading the Dow was up 610 points on the day. In fact, over the three months of Trump's “trade war” to date, the Dow has been essentially flat (up 170 points).
Nor is market volatility particularly high. It's now back at 2015–2016 levels, after a particularly calm 2017. That's right: Trump's first year in office war marked by historically low stock market volatility. All in all, the Dow has risen more than 30 percent since Election Day, 2018. Ah, the perils of using the market as a guide to politics.
Trump is right to push on trade. A simple return to anything resembling a balanced international trading system would result in massive gains for the United States. What presidential advisors Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross call the deficit drag depresses the American economy by about 3 percent overall. That is to say, if international trade were balanced, the American economy would be 3 percent larger than it is now. (Trump Is Right: The U.S. Can’t Lose a Trade War)
The headlines on April 4 blamed Trump for a 350-point intraday fall in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They neglected to credit Trump's for the fact that by the close of trading the Dow was up 610 points on the day. In fact, over the three months of Trump's “trade war” to date, the Dow has been essentially flat (up 170 points).
Nor is market volatility particularly high. It's now back at 2015–2016 levels, after a particularly calm 2017. That's right: Trump's first year in office war marked by historically low stock market volatility. All in all, the Dow has risen more than 30 percent since Election Day, 2018. Ah, the perils of using the market as a guide to politics.
Trump is right to push on trade. A simple return to anything resembling a balanced international trading system would result in massive gains for the United States. What presidential advisors Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross call the deficit drag depresses the American economy by about 3 percent overall. That is to say, if international trade were balanced, the American economy would be 3 percent larger than it is now. (Trump Is Right: The U.S. Can’t Lose a Trade War)
See also Babones' article The World Cries Wolf on U.S. Tariffs, in which he argues that Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum imports "are a logical and long-overdue response to decades of trade cheating by friends and foes alike."
