The Generals Who Will Really Rule North Korea

[High_Gravity]

The Generals Who Will Really Rule North Korea

The policy under Kim Jong Il, North Korea's late Dear Leader, could not have had a name that was more straightforward: "military first politics." For most of Kim's 17-year reign as dictator, North Korea's military — the Korean People's Army, or KPA — got pretty much whatever it wanted. Even during the crippling famine, which killed tens of thousands in the late '90s, food was diverted to the military. Better a soldier with a full stomach, even if almost everyone else were starving, Kim seemed to think. "His position toward the military was one of weakness," says Christopher Hill, formerly the chief U.S. negotiator to the six-party nuclear talks.

Little wonder, then, that nearly everyone who tries to figure out what is happening in the world's most isolated regime believes that, in the wake of Kim's sudden death on Dec. 17, it is the military brass who will be firmly in control of the country, even as the young Kim Jong Un formally becomes what the Koreans call the suryong (supreme leader). "The military," says Hill, "will clearly be a critical factor in determining whether the [Kim] family dynasty survives."

Some analysts have argued that the North Korean brass were already deeply resentful that Kim Jong Un, in his late 20s, was last year given four stars and a position as vice chairman of the Central Military Committee "without having served a day in the military," as Victor Cha, who ran Asia policy on George W. Bush's National Security Council, recently put it. "Such a system," Cha says, "simply cannot hold."

This may overstate the regime's fragility, precisely because it underrates just how deeply rooted the Kim family dynasty is in North Korea and how deeply the KPA's interests are aligned with its continuation. The key man to watch, analysts say, is Vice Marshal Ri Yong Ho, chief of the General Staff in Pyongyang and, like Kim Jong Un, a chairman of the Central Military Committee, the key military policymaking body in the country.

Ri, 69, is a third-generation elite who over the years established a close relationship with Kim Jong Il, and over the past two yeas was photographed at various public events seated alongside the late Dear Leader. He is also said to be close to Kim's sister as well as his brother-in-law Chang Sung Taek, the man who some believe is now Kim Jong Un's "regent," the power behind the throne who will be calling the shots. Ri is also a graduate of the Kim Il Sung Military Academy, as is Kim Jong Un. Diplomats and intelligence analysts believe there is no scenario under which the young Kim could have been elevated to the position of successor over the past two years without the brass's approval. "He's there because the military officials believe they can control him, at least for several years, and there's no other institution that can hold the place together," says an East Asia–based intelligence official. On Thursday, in fact, Reuters — quoting an unnamed official with "close ties" to Beijing and Pyongyang — reported that a "collective leadership'' arrangement has already been agreed to by Kim Jong Un and top military officials. (TIME has been unable to confirm this.) "The military has pledged its allegiance to Kim Jong Un," Reuters quoted its source as saying.

Read more: N. Korea: Military Generals Real Rulers, not Kim Jong Un - TIME

 

[martybegan]

The big question is what if the Generals realize they cannot hold onto the population without Kim Jong Il. At that point they may decide a localized war is a better risk than a peace where they gradually lose control over thier own population.

 

[High_Gravity]

The big question is what if the Generals realize they cannot hold onto the population without Kim Jong Il. At that point they may decide a localized war is a better risk than a peace where they gradually lose control over thier own population.

I don't think much is going to change, North Korea is going to press on with business as usual.

 

[JimH52]

Korean reunification - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Eventual political integration of the Koreas under a democratic government from the South is generally viewed as inevitable by U.S. and South Korea. However, the nature of unification, i.e. through North Korean collapse or gradual integration of the North and South, is still a topic of intense political debate and even conflict among interested parties, who include both Koreas, the People's Republic of China, Japan, Russia, and the United States. Some political analysts[who?] even say the process of reunification has already begun,[5] albeit at a very gradual pace, through the current process of reconciliation and economic cooperation between the two Koreas.

 

[waltky]

New footage clue to NKorean leadership...

North Korea leadership: Kim Jong-un's uncle in TV clue
25 December 2011 : Kim Jong-un's uncle has been pictured standing at the North Korea leader's side in military uniform, suggesting a key position in the hierarchy.

Chang Song-taek had been expected to play a major part in smoothing the transfer of power to Kim Jong-un from his father, Kim Jong-il. It is believed to be the first picture of Mr Chang in uniform. He has been more closely associated with the party. North Korea is trying to carry on the world's only Communist family dynasty. Kim Jong-il, who inherited power from his father in 1994, died last weekend. His son Kim Jong-un is a political novice, thought to be in his late 20s.

'Military first'

Analysts say senior figures such as Mr Chang will be crucial to making the transition of power successful. State media has already begun bolstering the role of Kim Jong-un, calling him the "great successor". Media now also refer to the younger Kim as the supreme commander of the armed forces. State television footage showed Mr Chang standing at Kim Jong-un's side as he paid respects before Kim Jong-il's body lying in state at Kumsusan Memorial Palace in Pyongyang. Mr Chang, who is married to Kim Jong-il's sister, was once purged for "re-education". But in recent years he has been installed in several key roles in the hierarchy.

However, he is normally pictured in business suits and was thought to be a civilian party official rather than a military figure. North Korea's military is one of the world's biggest, and has more than one million personnel. Under Kim Jong-il the government followed a "military-first" policy that prioritised the military's role in the country's power structure. Meanwhile, North Koreans are continuing lavish displays of mourning to Kim Jong-il. And North Korean state media has renewed attacks on South Korea for apparently blocking its citizens from travelling north to join in the mourning.

BBC News - North Korea leadership: Kim Jong-un's uncle in TV clue

See also:

Kim Jong Un's Uncle Wears General's Insignia, Strong Sign He'll Play Key Role
December 24, 2011 | North Korea on Sunday aired footage showing the uncle and key patron of anointed heir Kim Jong Un wearing a military uniform with a general's insignia -- a strong sign he'll play a greater role in efforts to secure the young man's rise to power after the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, a week ago.

The footage on state television shows Jang Song Thaek paying respects at Kim Jong Il's body as it lies in state at Kumsusan Memorial Palace. It indicates Jang has been appointed to a new military job. Seoul's Unification Ministry says it's the first time Jang has been shown wearing a military uniform on state TV. South Korean intelligence has predicted Kim Jong Un's aunt Kim Kyong Hui, a key Workers' Party official, and her husband Jang, who is a vice chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission, will play larger roles supporting the heir.

The North is ramping up its campaign to install Kim Jong Un as the nation's next leader as the mourning for his father continued a week after his death. North Korea is hailing heir Kim Jong Un as "supreme leader" of the 1.2-million strong military. Kim Jong Un made a third visit Saturday to the palace where his father's body is lying in state -- this time as "supreme leader of the revolutionary armed forces" and accompanied by North Korea's top military brass, according to the official Korean Central News Agency.

The new title and public show of support from the military leadership sent a strong signal that the nation will maintain Kim Jong Il's "military first" policy for the time being. Earlier Saturday, the newspaper Rodong Sinmun, mouthpiece of the ruling Workers' Party, urged Kim Jong Un to accept the top military post: "Comrade Kim Jong Un, please assume the supreme commandership, as wished by the people."

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/1...Internal+-+World+Latest+-+Text)#ixzz1hYc20TjZ

 

[waltky]

New footage clue to NKorean leadership...

North Korea leadership: Kim Jong-un's uncle in TV clue
25 December 2011 : Kim Jong-un's uncle has been pictured standing at the North Korea leader's side in military uniform, suggesting a key position in the hierarchy.

Chang Song-taek had been expected to play a major part in smoothing the transfer of power to Kim Jong-un from his father, Kim Jong-il. It is believed to be the first picture of Mr Chang in uniform. He has been more closely associated with the party. North Korea is trying to carry on the world's only Communist family dynasty. Kim Jong-il, who inherited power from his father in 1994, died last weekend. His son Kim Jong-un is a political novice, thought to be in his late 20s.

'Military first'

Analysts say senior figures such as Mr Chang will be crucial to making the transition of power successful. State media has already begun bolstering the role of Kim Jong-un, calling him the "great successor". Media now also refer to the younger Kim as the supreme commander of the armed forces. State television footage showed Mr Chang standing at Kim Jong-un's side as he paid respects before Kim Jong-il's body lying in state at Kumsusan Memorial Palace in Pyongyang. Mr Chang, who is married to Kim Jong-il's sister, was once purged for "re-education". But in recent years he has been installed in several key roles in the hierarchy.

However, he is normally pictured in business suits and was thought to be a civilian party official rather than a military figure. North Korea's military is one of the world's biggest, and has more than one million personnel. Under Kim Jong-il the government followed a "military-first" policy that prioritised the military's role in the country's power structure. Meanwhile, North Koreans are continuing lavish displays of mourning to Kim Jong-il. And North Korean state media has renewed attacks on South Korea for apparently blocking its citizens from travelling north to join in the mourning.

BBC News - North Korea leadership: Kim Jong-un's uncle in TV clue

See also:

Kim Jong Un's Uncle Wears General's Insignia, Strong Sign He'll Play Key Role
December 24, 2011 | North Korea on Sunday aired footage showing the uncle and key patron of anointed heir Kim Jong Un wearing a military uniform with a general's insignia -- a strong sign he'll play a greater role in efforts to secure the young man's rise to power after the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, a week ago.

The footage on state television shows Jang Song Thaek paying respects at Kim Jong Il's body as it lies in state at Kumsusan Memorial Palace. It indicates Jang has been appointed to a new military job. Seoul's Unification Ministry says it's the first time Jang has been shown wearing a military uniform on state TV. South Korean intelligence has predicted Kim Jong Un's aunt Kim Kyong Hui, a key Workers' Party official, and her husband Jang, who is a vice chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission, will play larger roles supporting the heir.

The North is ramping up its campaign to install Kim Jong Un as the nation's next leader as the mourning for his father continued a week after his death. North Korea is hailing heir Kim Jong Un as "supreme leader" of the 1.2-million strong military. Kim Jong Un made a third visit Saturday to the palace where his father's body is lying in state -- this time as "supreme leader of the revolutionary armed forces" and accompanied by North Korea's top military brass, according to the official Korean Central News Agency.

The new title and public show of support from the military leadership sent a strong signal that the nation will maintain Kim Jong Il's "military first" policy for the time being. Earlier Saturday, the newspaper Rodong Sinmun, mouthpiece of the ruling Workers' Party, urged Kim Jong Un to accept the top military post: "Comrade Kim Jong Un, please assume the supreme commandership, as wished by the people."

Read more: Kim Jong Un's Uncle Wears General's Insignia, Strong Sign He'll Play Key Role | Fox News

 

[High_Gravity]

Kim Jong Un Declared 'Supreme Leader' Of North Korea

PYONGYANG, North Korea — North Korea's power brokers publicly declared Kim Jong Un the country's supreme leader for the first time at a massive public memorial Thursday for his father, cementing the family's hold on power for another generation.

A somber Kim, dubbed the Great Successor, attended the memorial as he stood with his head bowed at the Grand People's Study House, overlooking Kim Il Sung Square, named for his grandfather who founded modern North Korea.

A sea of humanity, including smartly dressed troops and civilians, gathered below him for the memorial that doubled as a show of support for his burgeoning role as leader.

The unequivocal public backing for Kim Jong Un provides a strong signal that government and military officials have unified around him in the wake of his father and long time ruler Kim Jong Il's death Dec. 17.

"Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un is our party, military and country's supreme leader who inherits great comrade Kim Jong Il's ideology, leadership, character, virtues, grit and courage," Kim Yong Nam, considered North Korea's ceremonial head of state, said in a speech.

Kim Jong Un, wearing a dark overcoat, was flanked by top party and military officials, including Kim Jong Il's younger sister, Kim Kyong Hui, and her husband Jang Song Thaek, who are expected to serve as mentors of their young nephew.

"The father's plan is being implemented," Ralph Cossa, president of Pacific Forum CSIS, a Hawaii-based think tank, said of the transfer of power. "All of these guys have a vested interest in the system and a vested interest in demonstrating stability. The last thing they want to do is create havoc."

Still, given Kim Jong Un's inexperience and age – he is in his late 20s – there are questions outside North Korea about whether he is equipped to lead a nation engaged in long-stalled negotiations over its nuclear program and grappling with decades of economic hardship and chronic food shortages.

But support among North Korea's power brokers was clear at the memorial service, which was attended by hundreds of thousands of people filling Kim Il Sung Square and other plazas in central Pyongyang.

Thursday's memorial "was an event to publicly reconfirm and solidify" Kim Jong Un's status, said Jeung Young-tae, an analyst with the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul, South Korea.

Life in the North Korean capital came to a standstill as mourners dressed in thick, dark colored jackets blanketed the plaza from the Grand People's Study House to the Taedong River for the second day of funeral ceremonies for the late leader. A giant red placard hanging on the front of a building facing Kim Il Sung Square urged the country to rally around Kim Jong Un.

Kim Jong Il, who led his 24 million people with absolute power for 17 years, died of a heart attack Dec. 17 at age 69, according to state media. He inherited power from his father Kim Il Sung, who died of a heart attack in 1994, in what was the communist world's first hereditary succession.

Attention turned to Kim Jong Un after he was revealed last year as his father's choice among three known sons to carry the Kim dynasty into a third generation.

Kim Jong Un Declared 'Supreme Leader' Of North Korea