Techno-Tyrants try to Whack Dr. Roy Spencer

[ding]

Interesting. Dr. Spencer has tried his best to deny AGW. And failed miserably. His own graph shows how rapid and significant the warming is. And that is changing our climate.

View attachment 594542

It's a sad day when you think it's funny that scientific challenges are subordinated.

 

[abu afak]

For anyone that doesn't know who Dr. Spencer is -- for about 40 years, he and Dr. Christy have been in charge of the UAH Satellite Data processing for Global Mean Earth temperature. It's ALWAYS been a joint venture with NOAA and NASA. They are one of two centers that process the data into temperatures by regions on the earth. (the other is RSS) Even tho the 2 sites use diff algorithms, there's exceptional agreement in the results. And these results are used WORLDWIDE by the GW science community.
..................

Like so many Warming deniers he's also a Kweationist/ID clown.
Apparently fell off the deep end at some point. (app yr 2000?)
What a FREAK.

Wiki:
[.....]
"Spencer is a signatory to "An Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming",[30][31] which states that "We believe Earth and its ecosystems—created by God's intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence—are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory.
Earth's climate system is no exception. Recent global warming is one of many natural cycles of warming and cooling in geologic history."[32] He believes that most climate change is natural in origin, the result of long-term changes in the Earth's albedo and that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have caused some warming, but that its warming influence is small compared to natural, internal, chaotic fluctuations in global average cloud cover.[33] This view contradicts the scientific consensus that "most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities".[34] Climatologist Patrick Michaels, also a self-professed skeptic of global warming, has defended Spencer, arguing that his religious beliefs have nothing to do with his climate change research.[35]
[.....]

Intelligent design​

In TCS Daily, Spencer embraced the Pseudoscience of intelligent design[42]

In the book The Evolution Crisis, Spencer wrote, "I finally became convinced that the theory of Creation actually had a much better Scientific basis than the theory of Evolution, for the creation model was actually better able to explain the physical and biological complexity in the world. [...] Science has startled us with its many discoveries and advances, but it has hit a brick wall in its attempt to rid itself of the need for a creator and designer."[43]
[.....]

Roy Spencer (meteorologist) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

`

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[flacaltenn]

Like the US Constitution guarantees -- "there shall be no religious tests to hold office" in science. That test only applies to science in minds WEAKER than it takes TO BE a scientist.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Interesting. Dr. Spencer has tried his best to deny AGW. And failed miserably. His own graph shows how rapid and significant the warming is. And that is changing our climate.

View attachment 594542

Here is the link Rockhead always forget to post because he doesn't want people to see what Dr. Spencer actually says about the chart.

LINK

Here is what Rockhead doesn't want you to read;

"The annual average anomaly for 2021 was +0.134 deg. C above the 30-year mean (1991-2020), which places it as the 8th warmest year in the 43 year satellite record, behind 2016, 2020, 1998, 2019, 2017,2010, and 2015.

The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land)."

===

You understand that he is saying there is a COOLING trend since 2015?

===

Rockhead lies about what Dr. Spencer thinks about AGW since in the link below he makes clear he believes that CO2 warms the planet up at least 33C and states he accepts some warm forcing of a doubling of CO2.

Global Warming Theory in a Nutshell​

(Updated June 3, 2019)

Selected Excerpt:

"It is believed (based upon theoretical calculations) that our global emissions of carbon dioxide have enhanced the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect by about 1%, thus reducing the rate at which IR energy is lost to outer space. Global warming theory (through conservation of energy) says that the lower atmosphere must then respond to this energy imbalance (less IR radiation being lost than solar energy being absorbed) by causing an increase in temperature. This warming then increases the IR escaping to space until the emitted IR radiation once again reaches a balance with absorbed sunlight, and the temperature stops rising. This is the basic explanation of global warming theory.

Manabe and Strickler (1964) calculated the global-average strength of the “greenhouse effect” on surface temperatures assuming all energy transfers were radiative (no weather processes), based upon the theory of how infrared energy courses through the atmosphere. They found that the surface of the Earth would average a whopping 75 deg. C warmer than if there was no greenhouse effect. But in reality, the surface of the Earth averages about 33 deg. C warmer, not 75 deg. C warmer than a no-greenhouse Earth. That’s because convective air currents (which create weather) carry excess heat away from the surface, cooling it well below its full greenhouse effect value represented by their imagined “pure radiative energy equilibrium” assumption.

Now, you might be surprised to learn that the amount of warming directly caused by us adding extra CO2 to the atmosphere is, by itself, relatively weak. It has been calculated theoretically that, if there are no other changes in the climate system, a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration would cause about 1 deg C of surface warming. This is NOT a controversial statement…it is well understood by climate scientists. As of early 2019, we were about 50% of the way toward a doubling of atmospheric CO2....."

LINK

 

[elektra]

Things cease to be private when you have an open window to billions of views

 

[flacaltenn]

You understand that he is saying there is a COOLING trend since 2015?

Cant really have meaningful trend lines for climate based on 8 or 10 year periods. Dont think Dr. Spencer is suggesting that. RELATIVE MAXES like the ones you're pointing out sometimes only "beat each other" by a couple hundreths of a degree. The ranking is really irrelevant. The NUMBER of relative maxes in a decade however MIGHT be a clue to a movement in the 30 year or longer trend lines.

In fact, you'll probably remember "the Hansen trick" while he was heading GISS -- which would be to fuck with the rankings by promoting the CURRENT month/year by a couple HUNDRETHS of a degree to beat a past month/year. And then we'd all wait for the RETRACTION to come like 3 weeks later when nobody remembers anything BUT the roaring headlines about "HOTTEST OCTOBER SINCE ___" and they'd issue a NEW value on page 11 past the comics and the sports section.

It was a fun game of "who's the dickhead" for awhile, but it got old.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Cant really have meaningful trend lines for climate based on 8 or 10 year periods. Dont think Dr. Spencer is suggesting that. RELATIVE MAXES like the ones you're pointing out sometimes only "beat each other" by a couple hundreths of a degree. The ranking is really irrelevant. The NUMBER of relative maxes in a decade however MIGHT be a clue to a movement in the 30 year or longer trend lines.

In fact, you'll probably remember "the Hansen trick" while he was heading GISS -- which would be to fuck with the rankings by promoting the CURRENT month/year by a couple HUNDRETHS of a degree to beat a past month/year. And then we'd all wait for the RETRACTION to come like 3 weeks later when nobody remembers anything BUT the roaring headlines about "HOTTEST OCTOBER SINCE ___" and they'd issue a NEW value on page 11 past the comics and the sports section.

It was a fun game of "who's the dickhead" for awhile, but it got old.

Of course, 8-10 years is very short trendline, but I pointed it out because of their stupid 4th warmest year on record, or 8th warmest year on record arguments to prove that it is warm, but it has been COOLING since 2015 according to the NOAA themselves (posted the link to it) which makes people wonder if CO2 is on vacation just as it supposedly from the 1940's to the late 1970's.

They ignore what I posted that by several temperature databases it IS Cooling since 2014 or 2015, they ignore it to promote their warmest month or year babbles as it that somehow refutes the standard data trends.

 

[flacaltenn]

Of course, 8-10 years is very short trendline, but I pointed it out because of their stupid 4th warmest year on record, or 8th warmest year on record arguments to prove that it is warm, but it has been COOLING since 2015 according to the NOAA themselves (posted the link to it) which makes people wonder if CO2 is on vacation just as it supposedly from the 1940's to the late 1970's.

They ignore what I posted that by several temperature databases it IS Cooling since 2014 or 2015, they ignore it to promote their warmest month or year babbles as it that somehow refutes the standard data trends.

Even by satellite -- the anomaly took a .25DegC step up about 2015 and THEN flattened. You can't SEE that detail in the surface temp record anymore. But that .25DegC step up -- was equivalent to TWO DECADES of warming at the "spencer rate" of 0.14. It deserves a rest after that dontchathink?

To talk about a "flat spot" after a 2 DECADE sudden step up is maybe not worth bringing up a "cooling period" declaration.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Even by satellite -- the anomaly took a .25DegC step up about 2015 and THEN flattened. You can't SEE that detail in the surface temp record anymore. But that .25DegC step up -- was equivalent to TWO DECADES of warming at the "spencer rate" of 0.14. It deserves a rest after that dontchathink?

To talk about a "flat spot" after a 2 DECADE sudden step up is maybe not worth bringing up a "cooling period" declaration.

The sudden step was due to the large El-Nino phase of 2014-2016 as it was for 1997-1998 and 2009- 2010 too then goes flat or decline (cooling) when El-Ninos dissipates.

LINK

 

[Old Rocks]

Like the US Constitution guarantees -- "there shall be no religious tests to hold office" in science. That test only applies to science in minds WEAKER than it takes TO BE a scientist.

I guess we know why you are not a scientist. LOL

 

[Old Rocks]

Here is the link Rockhead always forget to post because he doesn't want people to see what Dr. Spencer actually says about the chart.

LINK

Here is what Rockhead doesn't want you to read;

"The annual average anomaly for 2021 was +0.134 deg. C above the 30-year mean (1991-2020), which places it as the 8th warmest year in the 43 year satellite record, behind 2016, 2020, 1998, 2019, 2017,2010, and 2015.

The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land)."

===

You understand that he is saying there is a COOLING trend since 2015?

===

Rockhead lies about what Dr. Spencer thinks about AGW since in the link below he makes clear he believes that CO2 warms the planet up at least 33C and states he accepts some warm forcing of a doubling of CO2.

Global Warming Theory in a Nutshell​

(Updated June 3, 2019)

Selected Excerpt:

"It is believed (based upon theoretical calculations) that our global emissions of carbon dioxide have enhanced the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect by about 1%, thus reducing the rate at which IR energy is lost to outer space. Global warming theory (through conservation of energy) says that the lower atmosphere must then respond to this energy imbalance (less IR radiation being lost than solar energy being absorbed) by causing an increase in temperature. This warming then increases the IR escaping to space until the emitted IR radiation once again reaches a balance with absorbed sunlight, and the temperature stops rising. This is the basic explanation of global warming theory.

Manabe and Strickler (1964) calculated the global-average strength of the “greenhouse effect” on surface temperatures assuming all energy transfers were radiative (no weather processes), based upon the theory of how infrared energy courses through the atmosphere. They found that the surface of the Earth would average a whopping 75 deg. C warmer than if there was no greenhouse effect. But in reality, the surface of the Earth averages about 33 deg. C warmer, not 75 deg. C warmer than a no-greenhouse Earth. That’s because convective air currents (which create weather) carry excess heat away from the surface, cooling it well below its full greenhouse effect value represented by their imagined “pure radiative energy equilibrium” assumption.

Now, you might be surprised to learn that the amount of warming directly caused by us adding extra CO2 to the atmosphere is, by itself, relatively weak. It has been calculated theoretically that, if there are no other changes in the climate system, a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration would cause about 1 deg C of surface warming. This is NOT a controversial statement…it is well understood by climate scientists. As of early 2019, we were about 50% of the way toward a doubling of atmospheric CO2....."

LINK

LOL What a dumbass post. Yes, there has been a decline in temperature since 2015-2016. Well within the natural variation for La Nina-El Nino variation. But the UAH graph shows a variation since 1979 that is well outside natural variation.

 

[Old Rocks]

The sudden step was due to the large El-Nino phase of 2014-2016 as it was for 1997-1998 and 2009- 2010 too then goes flat or decline (cooling) when El-Ninos dissipates.

LINK

Damn, you continue to be such a silly ass. You say that the El Nino increases the temperature, then it cools. One look at the graph makes you a liar. It does not cool to where it was. Draw a line through the lowest points on the graph. Then a line through the highest points on the graph. What is the direction of those two lines?

 

[jc456]

Of course, 8-10 years is very short trendline, but I pointed it out because of their stupid 4th warmest year on record, or 8th warmest year on record arguments to prove that it is warm, but it has been COOLING since 2015 according to the NOAA themselves (posted the link to it) which makes people wonder if CO2 is on vacation just as it supposedly from the 1940's to the late 1970's.

They ignore what I posted that by several temperature databases it IS Cooling since 2014 or 2015, they ignore it to promote their warmest month or year babbles as it that somehow refutes the standard data trends.

well it's 2022 and my winter has been the same as it's been since 1983. What they put their ballast on is that on February 2 1985 the day was colder than 2022. I doubt it, but that's what they argue about. It isn't that the winter weather was the same, just that different days experienced whatever event happened in each year. It's hilarious. follow the bean under the shells.

 

[jc456]

The sudden step was due to the large El-Nino phase of 2014-2016 as it was for 1997-1998 and 2009- 2010 too then goes flat or decline (cooling) when El-Ninos dissipates.

LINK

thanks to the Pacific Ocean.

 

[elektra]

Like so many Warming deniers he's also a Kweationist/ID clown.
Apparently fell off the deep end at some point. (app yr 2000?)
What a FREAK.

You must be a 2nd account of old crock's. You babble the stupidest of things.

Dr. Roy Spencer does not deny global warming or AGW, as it is called.

Warming denier? Dr Roy Spencer goes out of his way to state he believes in AGW!

Now you call AGW advocates deniers, freaks.

You are pathetic and stupid all rolled up into a giant booger.

 

[elektra]

It is funny, Abu afuk don't know who is a denuer and who is not, stupidity abu/old crock. Pure stupidity.

 

[Sunsettommy]

LOL What a dumbass post. Yes, there has been a decline in temperature since 2015-2016. Well within the natural variation for La Nina-El Nino variation. But the UAH graph shows a variation since 1979 that is well outside natural variation.
View attachment 596352

Your head must be made of Swiss cheese since I have MANY times in the forum acknowledge the warming trend since 1979, heck I attacked YOU for omitting this part all the time when you post the UAH chart.

From post 44 here in this page,

"The annual average anomaly for 2021 was +0.134 deg. C above the 30-year mean (1991-2020), which places it as the 8th warmest year in the 43 year satellite record, behind 2016, 2020, 1998, 2019, 2017,2010, and 2015.

The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land)."

bolding mine

That is what I POSTED to expose your dishonesty. Never disputed the warming the entire time.



By the way you never commented on the NOAA link at all which supports my El-Nino statements.

 

[flacaltenn]

The sudden step was due to the large El-Nino phase of 2014-2016 as it was for 1997-1998 and 2009- 2010 too then goes flat or decline (cooling) when El-Ninos dissipates.

LINK

Except that the short term avg HAS NOT cooled enough to even START removing the step. You're looking at year to year stuff and not the bigger picture.

Go load up the UAH graph and pencil in with paint program pencil in the cooling trend you think you see. And please IGNORE the maxima and minima... Those are not the sweat spots for spotting "TRENDS".

 

[Sunsettommy]

LOL What a dumbass post. Yes, there has been a decline in temperature since 2015-2016. Well within the natural variation for La Nina-El Nino variation. But the UAH graph shows a variation since 1979 that is well outside natural variation.
View attachment 596352

Your chart is a YEAR OLD, try paying attention to the new one that show a huge .18C drop from December 2021.

Corrected you on this the other day you still perpetuate the error anyway.

LINK

 

[Sunsettommy]

Except that the short term avg HAS NOT cooled enough to even START removing the step. You're looking at year to year stuff and not the bigger picture.

Go load up the UAH graph and pencil in with paint program pencil in the cooling trend you think you see. And please IGNORE the maxima and minima... Those are not the sweat spots for spotting "TRENDS".

The step up is a statistical marker of a big El-Nino but when they dissipate (leaves the atmosphere in various ways) it cools back down to a lower level as clearly shown here but since we are in the increased El-Nino rate it does not cool down long enough to create a long-term cooling period that YOU seek but the cooling down since 2016 peak is obvious as it is now .67C cooler than it was in 2016 that is an obvious cooling trend!

Since warming shows up mostly when we have a significant El-Nino phase that means that CO2 isn't driving that warming trends since it the Sun/Ocean dynamics that is driving the warming trend.

LINK