Super Bowl XLIX Predictions

[HUGGY]

Short passes short passes, throwing to a tackle, and brilliant route design for receivers plus when Gronk bulldozes sherman(who gained a lot of my respect for playing with a broken arm) the secondary's heads will be spinning. Remember they beat the ravens with only 13 yards of rushing and 50 pass attempts by Brady. And Brady will pull out all the stops for his legacy and maybe the last game of his career.

Gronk won't "bulldoze" Chancellor or Wagner or Wright. The rain and wind gusts had a lot to do with throwing and catching the ball in Seattle on Sunday. Wilson actually threw for more yards than Rodgers.

Rodgers said "the better team lost". Yet he only passed for ONE TD! Sour GRAPES if ya ask me. It was a crazy game that came down to the last minute and the Seahawks proved that they had more heart and faith in their own team than the Packers players had in theirs when it was crunch time.

The Packers had TWO opportunities right on the goal line to prove they were the better team. Ya Seattle was the recipient of the results of pressing on passing plays early on and it cost them dearly. If the Hawks had been playing more conservatively they probably wouldn't have given the Packers an average field position near the Hawk's 20 yd line on the Packers first several drives.

 

[BluePhantom]

Rodgers said "the better team lost". Yet he only passed for ONE TD! Sour GRAPES if ya ask me. It was a crazy game that came down to the last minute and the Seahawks proved that they had more heart and faith in their own team than the Packers players had in theirs when it was crunch time.

The Packers had TWO opportunities right on the goal line to prove they were the better team. Ya Seattle was the recipient of the results of pressing on passing plays early on and it cost them dearly. If the Hawks had been playing more conservatively they probably wouldn't have given the Packers an average field position near the Hawk's 20 yd line on the Packers first several drives.

I lost respect for Rodgers for that statement. Maybe Rodgers should look to himself and ask his team AND HIMSELF why they got inside the Seattle 30 four times including on the one yard line on second down and came away with 9 points and an interception. Best team lost my ass....play the game for 60 minutes and finish the fight and maybe you wolud be in the Super Bowl Rodgers.

 

[LA RAM FAN]

Well here is my breakdown. I have to toss out both the NFC Championship and AFC Championship games for comparison as they were freak games, with heavy rain in both places, no team performed as they normally do...there were just so many freak things that happened that I don't think we can gain much insight from either championship game. Better to use season averages and what is normally the case to look at this match up.

Here is the statistical breakdown and my analysis, keeping in mind that we have to see about injuries, tendencies of the officiating crews, etc.



Seattle Offense vs. New England Defense (Seattle listed first then New England)

1st in rushing yards (2,762) vs 9th (1,669)
2nd in rushing attempts per game (32.8) vs. 18th most against (26.19)
1st in yards per attempt (5.3) vs. T8th (4.0)
1st in rushing TDs (20) vs. T2nd (6)
T20th in fumbles lost (2) vs. T18th (2)
1st in rushing DVOA (29.9) vs. 14th (-10.4)

27th in passing yards (3,250) vs. 17th (3,837)
32nd in pass attempts (454) vs. 9th most against (574)
15th in completion percentage (63.2%) vs. 8th (59.6%)
6th in yards per attempt (7.7) vs. T15th (7.2)
T22nd in passing TDs (20) vs. T12th (24)
30th in interceptions (7) vs. T12th (16)
T12th sacks (42) vs. T13th (40)
8th in quarterback rating (95.1) vs. 10th (84.0)
10th in passing DVOA (19.6) vs. 12th (2.0)

1st in "explosive plays" (plays over 20 yards)
5th in total offensive DVOA (15.0) vs. 11th in total defensive DVOA (-3.4)


Statistically speaking only, New England is a good defense but nothing terribly spectacular. One thing that jumps out at me is that teams do not run on New England a lot and this is probably because they are too frequently put in a position where the Patriots are exploding on offense and teams do not have the luxury of running the ball. When teams do run the ball, they find a very mediocre run defense trying to stop them. That will play into Seattle’s favor as if we learned anything from the NFC Championship game it is that the Seahawks don’t abandon the run, even when they are down a lot of points.


New England has allowed a completion percentage below 60% which is solid and not unsurprising given their corners, but their yards allowed per attempt is pretty pedestrian for a Super Bowl team. Combine this with Seattle’s propensity for the big play and it suggests that Seattle will be able to set up the play-action and strike deep for big gains. New England has a good pass rush but nothing Seattle hasn’t seen before, and in fact they have seen far worse and survived it. Wilson will get sacked a few times but he will escape a lot too. I don’t see New England being able to bring enough heat to disrupt what the Seahawks like to do in the passing game. IN DVOA there’s a pretty big gap between Seattle’s total offensive (15.0) and New England’s total defensive (-3.4) for a net of 11.6 in Seattle’s favor.


I heard a caller on a radio show today suggest that New England can stop the Seattle passing game by putting Revis and Browner/Arrington in man coverage on Seattle’s receivers. As a Seattle fan I pray to almighty God that is their game plan. Revis can be effective, but remember Browner was a Seahawk for several years and those receivers know his game. Browner cannot handle Doug Baldwin or Jermaine Kearse one on one over the course of an entire game. Playing man coverage against Seattle is a very quick way to see one of those 35+ yard touchdown passes Seattle has a tendency to throw.


In the final analysis Seattle should run well, although expecting Lynch to go for 150+ like he did against Green Bay might be a little much, and pass effectively when they need to do so. Pound the Beast, stay patient, and pick your shot should be Seattle’s plan.


New England Offense vs. Seattle Defense (New England listed first then Seattle)

18th in rushing yards (1,727) vs 3rd (1,304)
13th in rushing attempts per game (27.4) vs. 28th most (23.75)
22nd in yards per attempt (3.9) vs. 2nd (3.4)
T12th in rushing TDs (13) vs. T5th (8)
T30th in fumbles lost (0) vs. 3rd (5)
14th in rushing DVOA (-3.6) vs. 2nd (-25.1)

9th in passing yards (4,121) vs. 1st (2,970)
T7th in pass attempts (609) vs. 1st most (507)
12th in completion percentage (64.4%) vs. 12th (61.7%)
20th in yards per attempt (7.0) vs. 2nd (6.3)
5th in passing TDs (34) vs. 2nd (17)
29th in interceptions (9) vs. T18th (13)
T28th sacks (28) vs. 20th (37)
5th in quarterback rating (97.5) vs. 5th (80.4)
5th in passing DVOA (35.0) vs. 3rd (-9.3)

6th in total offensive DVOA (13.6) vs. 1st in total defensive DVOA (-16.3)


The book on Seattle is that you beat them by running the ball. It’s strange, therefore, that Seattle would lead the league in pass attempts against at 507. The reason why is because usually Seattle forces the other team to abandon the run and pass in a desperate attempt to catch up. Team’s don’t try to run against Seattle very much and there’s a reason why…you are usually very unsuccessful. Second in the NFL at yards per carry allowed at 3.4 and second in the NFL in rushing defensive DVOA, you are going to have to bring something special to pound the rock on Seattle and statistically speaking New England doesn’t have it. 22nd in yards per attempt at 3.9 (below the magic 4.0 average), and in the middle of the pack in rushing DVOA with a negative rating does not bode well for the Patriots’ ability to control the clock on the ground or draw in defenders.


Where New England is really powerful is in the passing game, but that’s exactly what Seattle wants. The more teams pass against them, the better the Seahawks chances get to win the game. Seattle is superior or equal in every category evaluated, and although the conference championship games were both aberrations due to rain in both games and the way both games unfolded, Green Bay has a statistically superior passing attack to New England’s and Aaron Rodgers didn’t exactly do much against the Legion of Boom.


Barring a freak occurrence, I can’t see New England running the ball on Seattle, which means they have to throw which is exactly where Seattle thrives. Seattle enjoys a -2.7 DVOA differential comparing the Patriots offense to the Seahawks defense for an overall difference of 14.3 in Seattle’s favor. That’s a significant difference and it strongly suggests that the Seahawks should be considered 7 to 9 point favorites in this game.


Summary: New England will have to run up a halftime lead of 18 points or so to eliminate Seattle’s rushing attack. Defensively they should play zone coverage, resist the urge to blitz, and hold the line against Lynch. Offensively attack the Seahawks with the run as a diversionary tactic and focus passes on short, underneath routes, flares, and screens. Trying to press it downfield against the LOB is a good way to get picked off and your receivers pounded.


Seattle, on the other hand….defensively do what they do. Change nothing. It’s been how Seattle has played defense for two years. Everyone knows what they do, you just have to beat them in execution which very rarely happens. Offensively, pound Lynch, set up the play action, and remain patient.


Prediction: Seattle 31, New England 23

forget the name of the packers running back but he was effective running against them.that was because they had a big lead of course.when you have the lead,you can do that as you mentioned. also whats your answer for how seattle shuts down Kronk.?

He is a force to be reckoned with and the best reciver they will have to deal with on offense.

I like your prediction of the score by the way.i dont see this one being a blowout either like last year because this time around,the pats dont have key injurys to players like the donkeys did.Look how much closer they played them this year when they had ALL their horses? and as i have said many times,brady does not get scared in big games like manning does.

 

[BluePhantom]

forget the name of the packers running back but he was effective running against them.that was because they had a big lead of course.when you have the lead,you can do that as you mentioned. also whats your answer for how seattle shuts down Kronk.?

He is a force to be reckoned with and the best reciver they will have to deal with on offense.

I like your prediction of the score by the way.i dont see this one being a blowout either like last year because this time around,the pats dont have key injurys to players like the donkeys did.Look how much closer they played them this year when they had ALL their horses? and as i have said many times,brady does not get scared in big games like manning does.

You are thinking of Eddie Lacy and he averaged 3.5 yards per carry which isn't good at all. As far as Gronk is concerned we shut him down the same way we shut everyone down. Put Wright and Chancellor on him and let Chancellor slam his shoulder into him a few times. Gronk will get the point.

 

[candycorn]

New England 38, Seattle 17

 

[LA RAM FAN]

forget the name of the packers running back but he was effective running against them.that was because they had a big lead of course.when you have the lead,you can do that as you mentioned. also whats your answer for how seattle shuts down Kronk.?

He is a force to be reckoned with and the best reciver they will have to deal with on offense.

I like your prediction of the score by the way.i dont see this one being a blowout either like last year because this time around,the pats dont have key injurys to players like the donkeys did.Look how much closer they played them this year when they had ALL their horses? and as i have said many times,brady does not get scared in big games like manning does.

You are thinking of Eddie Lacy and he averaged 3.5 yards per carry which isn't good at all. As far as Gronk is concerned we shut him down the same way we shut everyone down. Put Wright and Chancellor on him and let Chancellor slam his shoulder into him a few times. Gronk will get the point.

yeah but I wasnt talking about Lacys normal runs he had,i was referring to that long breakout run he had .I could not believe that happened to their defense.

 

[BluePhantom]

forget the name of the packers running back but he was effective running against them.that was because they had a big lead of course.when you have the lead,you can do that as you mentioned. also whats your answer for how seattle shuts down Kronk.?

He is a force to be reckoned with and the best reciver they will have to deal with on offense.

I like your prediction of the score by the way.i dont see this one being a blowout either like last year because this time around,the pats dont have key injurys to players like the donkeys did.Look how much closer they played them this year when they had ALL their horses? and as i have said many times,brady does not get scared in big games like manning does.

You are thinking of Eddie Lacy and he averaged 3.5 yards per carry which isn't good at all. As far as Gronk is concerned we shut him down the same way we shut everyone down. Put Wright and Chancellor on him and let Chancellor slam his shoulder into him a few times. Gronk will get the point.

yeah but I wasnt talking about Lacys normal runs he had,i was referring to that long breakout run he had .I could not believe that happened to their defense.

Pretty sure that was Starks, not Lacy

 

[LA RAM FAN]

forget the name of the packers running back but he was effective running against them.that was because they had a big lead of course.when you have the lead,you can do that as you mentioned. also whats your answer for how seattle shuts down Kronk.?

He is a force to be reckoned with and the best reciver they will have to deal with on offense.

I like your prediction of the score by the way.i dont see this one being a blowout either like last year because this time around,the pats dont have key injurys to players like the donkeys did.Look how much closer they played them this year when they had ALL their horses? and as i have said many times,brady does not get scared in big games like manning does.

You are thinking of Eddie Lacy and he averaged 3.5 yards per carry which isn't good at all. As far as Gronk is concerned we shut him down the same way we shut everyone down. Put Wright and Chancellor on him and let Chancellor slam his shoulder into him a few times. Gronk will get the point.

yeah but I wasnt talking about Lacys normal runs he had,i was referring to that long breakout run he had .I could not believe that happened to their defense.

Pretty sure that was Starks, not Lacy

well regardless of WHO it was,it was a shocker to see that from the seahawks defense especially since it was a key factor in setting up some points for them late in the game.I never thought the seahawks defense would give up a big play like that in such a big game.

they can ill afford to let that happen again,they wont get lucky again this time if they have to rely on an onside kick to try to win the game late.

 

[Papageorgio]

I predict the Doritios will have the best commercial.

I predict the halftime show will not be all that great.

 

[Shrimpbox]

Can anyone predict when we won't have to listen to deflate gate anymore. This fixation is becoming an embarrassment. Could we just talk football. The only thing that could make the halftime show worth watching would be for Katy Perry to have a wardrobe malfunction.

 

[Papageorgio]

I predict someone in America will get drunk and pass out before the game.

 

[HUGGY]

I predict that there will be few great long passes by either team until near the end of the game and Wilson will shine in the fourth qtr as usual.

I predict that Marshawn Lynch will have a hella good game. Well over 100 yards.

I predict that Tom Brady will throw some amazing short and medium passes but he will have trouble being consistant with Seattle's secondary.

Gronkowski will get at least one TD.

The Patriots will keep it close through the third qtr then the Seahawks will pull away and win by two scores.

 

[Papageorgio]

I predict there will be a coin flip before the game starts.

 

[B. Kidd]

I predict someone from the Patriots will overinflate Seattle footballs resulting in Wilson throwing eight interceptions.

 

[BluePhantom]

Well I did some statistical analysis to try to get some basic stat lines predicted. I won't go into the actual formulas I used (unless anyone really cares to know) but suffice it to say it was more advanced than averaging out stats and less advanced than a 50 layered algorithm. Basically here is what the formula produced

Russell Wilson: 21 comp on 34 att (.618 comp %), 272 yards (8.0 y/att), 2 TDs, 1 int
Seattle Team Rushing: 30 carries, 148 yards (4.9 ypc), 1 TD

Tom Brady: 25 comp on 36 att (.694 comp %), 270 yards (7.5 y/att), 2 TDs, 1 int
New England Team Rushing: 23 carries, 74 yards (3.2 ypc), 0 TD

Each team got two field goals predicting a final score of 27 - 20 Seattle against my original prediction of 31-23 Seattle. Essentially Brady vs. Seattle pass D and Wilson vs. New England's pass D cancel each other out and Seattle wins on the strength of the run vs. New England's weakness against the run.

Of course as we saw last year all it takes is one crazy play to start a cascade effect where it all goes to hell for either side. But assuming there are no freak occurrences, that's what my numbers say. Take it as you will

 

[Star]

I predict there will be a coin flip before the game starts.

After the flip, New England will enter...

,

 

[HUGGY]

I predict that Blount and his ineffective RB pals will have a very difficult time with the Seahawk's Run Defense.

I predict that Gronkowski will get thumped by the Seahawk Linebackers within the 5 yards allowable and have a horrible day. He WILL catch a scant few balls but will immediately get hit by Chancellor and have next to nothing in YAC. He is a big tough guy but will be frustrated by the Seahawk coverage.

Brady WILL be moved from his comfort zone in the pocket and be forced to make most of his throws when he and his receivers are not where he wants them to be leading to possibly a couple of interceptions and way more in-completions than will sustain Patriot drives. I can't see a lot of sackage from either team but Wilson will make far better use of being moved from the pocket than Brady. Wilson won't be throwing in the wind and rain of the NFC Championship game so I see a MUCH better % of accuracy in his throws resulting in more sustained drives by the Seahawks.

All in all I believe the Seahawks will win more comfortably than most people imagine.

31-20 Seahawks.

 

[Papageorgio]

I bet most people will have something to eat during the Super Bowl.

 

[hangover]

Fact is, Seattle is in the SB by shear luck. And both the players and their fans know it.

Fact is, the Pats scored 28 points with INFLATED balls in the second half, totally embarrassing the Colts.

Fact is, which ever team the refs make calls for will win.

 

[LA RAM FAN]

I predict that Blount and his ineffective RB pals will have a very difficult time with the Seahawk's Run Defense.

I predict that Gronkowski will get thumped by the Seahawk Linebackers within the 5 yards allowable and have a horrible day. He WILL catch a scant few balls but will immediately get hit by Chancellor and have next to nothing in YAC. He is a big tough guy but will be frustrated by the Seahawk coverage.

Brady WILL be moved from his comfort zone in the pocket and be forced to make most of his throws when he and his receivers are not where he wants them to be leading to possibly a couple of interceptions and way more in-completions than will sustain Patriot drives. I can't see a lot of sackage from either team but Wilson will make far better use of being moved from the pocket than Brady. Wilson won't be throwing in the wind and rain of the NFC Championship game so I see a MUCH better % of accuracy in his throws resulting in more sustained drives by the Seahawks.

All in all I believe the Seahawks will win more comfortably than most people imagine.

31-20 Seahawks.

That was what BP pointed out earlier somewhere was that most his interceptions were not his fault,that the weather played a factor in them pointing out the fact that Rodgers had trouble throwing the ball as well which is true enough throwing two interceptions in the game.

some quarterbacks it bothers more than others playing in bad conditions.I still remember a game from 95 played in Denver between them and the Kansas city clowns where it was a blizzard and strange enough,it was Elway that had all the problems playing in that game throwing the football where the clowns quarterback steve bonehead,had no problems.go figure. This was a future hall of famer that struggled where a backup journeyman did just fine though.

so I can cut Wilson some slack on that game.The only one of the four interceptions that was his fault and on him was the one he threw at halftime.Now that one I don't know what he was thinking since Kearse was covered the entire time.That was very uncharistic of him to throw that.this time he wont have to worry about the weather though.That probably played a factor in Baldwin fumbling the kickoff as well.they will be much more focused this time not having to deal with the weather.good thing it was last year they played the superbowl in new york huh folks?

The colts don't have a defense and have always struggled with the cheatriots stopping the run.The ravens have a much better run defense and they stopped it which is why the pats attacked their weakness,pas defense having two of their starters in the secondary out which is why they were able to come back and score two touchdowns being down twice against them.they wont have that luxary this time passing against the secondary of the Hawks.they were not able to run the ball against the ravens so what hope will they have against the hawks?

their only threat in the passing game is Gronk.chancellor though can cover him just fine so the others wont be able to get open.