BluePhantom
Educator (of liberals)
Well here is my breakdown. I have to toss out both the NFC Championship and AFC Championship games for comparison as they were freak games, with heavy rain in both places, no team performed as they normally do...there were just so many freak things that happened that I don't think we can gain much insight from either championship game. Better to use season averages and what is normally the case to look at this match up.
Here is the statistical breakdown and my analysis, keeping in mind that we have to see about injuries, tendencies of the officiating crews, etc.
Seattle Offense vs. New England Defense (Seattle listed first then New England)
1st in rushing yards (2,762) vs 9th (1,669)
2nd in rushing attempts per game (32.8) vs. 18th most against (26.19)
1st in yards per attempt (5.3) vs. T8th (4.0)
1st in rushing TDs (20) vs. T2nd (6)
T20th in fumbles lost (2) vs. T18th (2)
1st in rushing DVOA (29.9) vs. 14th (-10.4)
27th in passing yards (3,250) vs. 17th (3,837)
32nd in pass attempts (454) vs. 9th most against (574)
15th in completion percentage (63.2%) vs. 8th (59.6%)
6th in yards per attempt (7.7) vs. T15th (7.2)
T22nd in passing TDs (20) vs. T12th (24)
30th in interceptions (7) vs. T12th (16)
T12th sacks (42) vs. T13th (40)
8th in quarterback rating (95.1) vs. 10th (84.0)
10th in passing DVOA (19.6) vs. 12th (2.0)
1st in "explosive plays" (plays over 20 yards)
5th in total offensive DVOA (15.0) vs. 11th in total defensive DVOA (-3.4)
Statistically speaking only, New England is a good defense but nothing terribly spectacular. One thing that jumps out at me is that teams do not run on New England a lot and this is probably because they are too frequently put in a position where the Patriots are exploding on offense and teams do not have the luxury of running the ball. When teams do run the ball, they find a very mediocre run defense trying to stop them. That will play into Seattle’s favor as if we learned anything from the NFC Championship game it is that the Seahawks don’t abandon the run, even when they are down a lot of points.
New England has allowed a completion percentage below 60% which is solid and not unsurprising given their corners, but their yards allowed per attempt is pretty pedestrian for a Super Bowl team. Combine this with Seattle’s propensity for the big play and it suggests that Seattle will be able to set up the play-action and strike deep for big gains. New England has a good pass rush but nothing Seattle hasn’t seen before, and in fact they have seen far worse and survived it. Wilson will get sacked a few times but he will escape a lot too. I don’t see New England being able to bring enough heat to disrupt what the Seahawks like to do in the passing game. IN DVOA there’s a pretty big gap between Seattle’s total offensive (15.0) and New England’s total defensive (-3.4) for a net of 11.6 in Seattle’s favor.
I heard a caller on a radio show today suggest that New England can stop the Seattle passing game by putting Revis and Browner/Arrington in man coverage on Seattle’s receivers. As a Seattle fan I pray to almighty God that is their game plan. Revis can be effective, but remember Browner was a Seahawk for several years and those receivers know his game. Browner cannot handle Doug Baldwin or Jermaine Kearse one on one over the course of an entire game. Playing man coverage against Seattle is a very quick way to see one of those 35+ yard touchdown passes Seattle has a tendency to throw.
In the final analysis Seattle should run well, although expecting Lynch to go for 150+ like he did against Green Bay might be a little much, and pass effectively when they need to do so. Pound the Beast, stay patient, and pick your shot should be Seattle’s plan.
New England Offense vs. Seattle Defense (New England listed first then Seattle)
18th in rushing yards (1,727) vs 3rd (1,304)
13th in rushing attempts per game (27.4) vs. 28th most (23.75)
22nd in yards per attempt (3.9) vs. 2nd (3.4)
T12th in rushing TDs (13) vs. T5th (8)
T30th in fumbles lost (0) vs. 3rd (5)
14th in rushing DVOA (-3.6) vs. 2nd (-25.1)
9th in passing yards (4,121) vs. 1st (2,970)
T7th in pass attempts (609) vs. 1st most (507)
12th in completion percentage (64.4%) vs. 12th (61.7%)
20th in yards per attempt (7.0) vs. 2nd (6.3)
5th in passing TDs (34) vs. 2nd (17)
29th in interceptions (9) vs. T18th (13)
T28th sacks (28) vs. 20th (37)
5th in quarterback rating (97.5) vs. 5th (80.4)
5th in passing DVOA (35.0) vs. 3rd (-9.3)
6th in total offensive DVOA (13.6) vs. 1st in total defensive DVOA (-16.3)
The book on Seattle is that you beat them by running the ball. It’s strange, therefore, that Seattle would lead the league in pass attempts against at 507. The reason why is because usually Seattle forces the other team to abandon the run and pass in a desperate attempt to catch up. Team’s don’t try to run against Seattle very much and there’s a reason why…you are usually very unsuccessful. Second in the NFL at yards per carry allowed at 3.4 and second in the NFL in rushing defensive DVOA, you are going to have to bring something special to pound the rock on Seattle and statistically speaking New England doesn’t have it. 22nd in yards per attempt at 3.9 (below the magic 4.0 average), and in the middle of the pack in rushing DVOA with a negative rating does not bode well for the Patriots’ ability to control the clock on the ground or draw in defenders.
Where New England is really powerful is in the passing game, but that’s exactly what Seattle wants. The more teams pass against them, the better the Seahawks chances get to win the game. Seattle is superior or equal in every category evaluated, and although the conference championship games were both aberrations due to rain in both games and the way both games unfolded, Green Bay has a statistically superior passing attack to New England’s and Aaron Rodgers didn’t exactly do much against the Legion of Boom.
Barring a freak occurrence, I can’t see New England running the ball on Seattle, which means they have to throw which is exactly where Seattle thrives. Seattle enjoys a -2.7 DVOA differential comparing the Patriots offense to the Seahawks defense for an overall difference of 14.3 in Seattle’s favor. That’s a significant difference and it strongly suggests that the Seahawks should be considered 7 to 9 point favorites in this game.
Summary: New England will have to run up a halftime lead of 18 points or so to eliminate Seattle’s rushing attack. Defensively they should play zone coverage, resist the urge to blitz, and hold the line against Lynch. Offensively attack the Seahawks with the run as a diversionary tactic and focus passes on short, underneath routes, flares, and screens. Trying to press it downfield against the LOB is a good way to get picked off and your receivers pounded.
Seattle, on the other hand….defensively do what they do. Change nothing. It’s been how Seattle has played defense for two years. Everyone knows what they do, you just have to beat them in execution which very rarely happens. Offensively, pound Lynch, set up the play action, and remain patient.
Prediction: Seattle 31, New England 23
Here is the statistical breakdown and my analysis, keeping in mind that we have to see about injuries, tendencies of the officiating crews, etc.
Seattle Offense vs. New England Defense (Seattle listed first then New England)
1st in rushing yards (2,762) vs 9th (1,669)
2nd in rushing attempts per game (32.8) vs. 18th most against (26.19)
1st in yards per attempt (5.3) vs. T8th (4.0)
1st in rushing TDs (20) vs. T2nd (6)
T20th in fumbles lost (2) vs. T18th (2)
1st in rushing DVOA (29.9) vs. 14th (-10.4)
27th in passing yards (3,250) vs. 17th (3,837)
32nd in pass attempts (454) vs. 9th most against (574)
15th in completion percentage (63.2%) vs. 8th (59.6%)
6th in yards per attempt (7.7) vs. T15th (7.2)
T22nd in passing TDs (20) vs. T12th (24)
30th in interceptions (7) vs. T12th (16)
T12th sacks (42) vs. T13th (40)
8th in quarterback rating (95.1) vs. 10th (84.0)
10th in passing DVOA (19.6) vs. 12th (2.0)
1st in "explosive plays" (plays over 20 yards)
5th in total offensive DVOA (15.0) vs. 11th in total defensive DVOA (-3.4)
Statistically speaking only, New England is a good defense but nothing terribly spectacular. One thing that jumps out at me is that teams do not run on New England a lot and this is probably because they are too frequently put in a position where the Patriots are exploding on offense and teams do not have the luxury of running the ball. When teams do run the ball, they find a very mediocre run defense trying to stop them. That will play into Seattle’s favor as if we learned anything from the NFC Championship game it is that the Seahawks don’t abandon the run, even when they are down a lot of points.
New England has allowed a completion percentage below 60% which is solid and not unsurprising given their corners, but their yards allowed per attempt is pretty pedestrian for a Super Bowl team. Combine this with Seattle’s propensity for the big play and it suggests that Seattle will be able to set up the play-action and strike deep for big gains. New England has a good pass rush but nothing Seattle hasn’t seen before, and in fact they have seen far worse and survived it. Wilson will get sacked a few times but he will escape a lot too. I don’t see New England being able to bring enough heat to disrupt what the Seahawks like to do in the passing game. IN DVOA there’s a pretty big gap between Seattle’s total offensive (15.0) and New England’s total defensive (-3.4) for a net of 11.6 in Seattle’s favor.
I heard a caller on a radio show today suggest that New England can stop the Seattle passing game by putting Revis and Browner/Arrington in man coverage on Seattle’s receivers. As a Seattle fan I pray to almighty God that is their game plan. Revis can be effective, but remember Browner was a Seahawk for several years and those receivers know his game. Browner cannot handle Doug Baldwin or Jermaine Kearse one on one over the course of an entire game. Playing man coverage against Seattle is a very quick way to see one of those 35+ yard touchdown passes Seattle has a tendency to throw.
In the final analysis Seattle should run well, although expecting Lynch to go for 150+ like he did against Green Bay might be a little much, and pass effectively when they need to do so. Pound the Beast, stay patient, and pick your shot should be Seattle’s plan.
New England Offense vs. Seattle Defense (New England listed first then Seattle)
18th in rushing yards (1,727) vs 3rd (1,304)
13th in rushing attempts per game (27.4) vs. 28th most (23.75)
22nd in yards per attempt (3.9) vs. 2nd (3.4)
T12th in rushing TDs (13) vs. T5th (8)
T30th in fumbles lost (0) vs. 3rd (5)
14th in rushing DVOA (-3.6) vs. 2nd (-25.1)
9th in passing yards (4,121) vs. 1st (2,970)
T7th in pass attempts (609) vs. 1st most (507)
12th in completion percentage (64.4%) vs. 12th (61.7%)
20th in yards per attempt (7.0) vs. 2nd (6.3)
5th in passing TDs (34) vs. 2nd (17)
29th in interceptions (9) vs. T18th (13)
T28th sacks (28) vs. 20th (37)
5th in quarterback rating (97.5) vs. 5th (80.4)
5th in passing DVOA (35.0) vs. 3rd (-9.3)
6th in total offensive DVOA (13.6) vs. 1st in total defensive DVOA (-16.3)
The book on Seattle is that you beat them by running the ball. It’s strange, therefore, that Seattle would lead the league in pass attempts against at 507. The reason why is because usually Seattle forces the other team to abandon the run and pass in a desperate attempt to catch up. Team’s don’t try to run against Seattle very much and there’s a reason why…you are usually very unsuccessful. Second in the NFL at yards per carry allowed at 3.4 and second in the NFL in rushing defensive DVOA, you are going to have to bring something special to pound the rock on Seattle and statistically speaking New England doesn’t have it. 22nd in yards per attempt at 3.9 (below the magic 4.0 average), and in the middle of the pack in rushing DVOA with a negative rating does not bode well for the Patriots’ ability to control the clock on the ground or draw in defenders.
Where New England is really powerful is in the passing game, but that’s exactly what Seattle wants. The more teams pass against them, the better the Seahawks chances get to win the game. Seattle is superior or equal in every category evaluated, and although the conference championship games were both aberrations due to rain in both games and the way both games unfolded, Green Bay has a statistically superior passing attack to New England’s and Aaron Rodgers didn’t exactly do much against the Legion of Boom.
Barring a freak occurrence, I can’t see New England running the ball on Seattle, which means they have to throw which is exactly where Seattle thrives. Seattle enjoys a -2.7 DVOA differential comparing the Patriots offense to the Seahawks defense for an overall difference of 14.3 in Seattle’s favor. That’s a significant difference and it strongly suggests that the Seahawks should be considered 7 to 9 point favorites in this game.
Summary: New England will have to run up a halftime lead of 18 points or so to eliminate Seattle’s rushing attack. Defensively they should play zone coverage, resist the urge to blitz, and hold the line against Lynch. Offensively attack the Seahawks with the run as a diversionary tactic and focus passes on short, underneath routes, flares, and screens. Trying to press it downfield against the LOB is a good way to get picked off and your receivers pounded.
Seattle, on the other hand….defensively do what they do. Change nothing. It’s been how Seattle has played defense for two years. Everyone knows what they do, you just have to beat them in execution which very rarely happens. Offensively, pound Lynch, set up the play action, and remain patient.
Prediction: Seattle 31, New England 23
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just stop.
Best of fucking luck to you.
