Some Electoral Map Projections

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Annie, May 12, 2012.

  1. Annie
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    Annie Diamond Member

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    Moe Lane » Election 2012: The long, slow retreat of Obama for America.

    It gets more interesting from this point.

    Anyone who saw James Carville's warning, may quickly understand this oldie. Liberal cocooning:

    The Times "Liberal Cocoon" - November 5, 2003 - TimesWatch.org | Media Research Center

     
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  2. Mad Scientist
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    Mad Scientist Deplorable Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    "I don't know a single person who voted for Nixon."

    "I don't know a single person who voted for Reagan."

    Then after Romney gets elected they'll say it about him too.
     
  3. Unkotare
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    Unkotare Diamond Member

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    I remember that comment about Reagan so well. I happened to have been watching that newscast at that time.
     
  4. JoeB131
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    JoeB131 Diamond Member

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    Digging into the depth of this article was amusing, because it kind of shows the magical thinking of Romney supporters.

    the fact is, the Electoral College system gives the Democrats a huge advantage before a single vote is cast.

    Obama will without a doubt take all the states the Democrats have won the last four times. That starts him out at 242. It's pretty much a done deal that he'll take New Mexico. Democrats have taken that 4 of the last five times and 2004 was a fluke.

    He just needs to come up with 23 more. Just winning Florida gets that for him.

    So do the combinations of -

    VA and NC
    VA and OH
    OH and IA
    OH and NV
    OH and CO
    NC and CO
    NC and NH and OH
    VA and NH and OH

    In short, there are a bunch of permutations that gets you that extra 23 votes.

    Now Romney starts off at really, the states McCain won, plus Indiana, and minus AZ and MO, where he looks iffy. He as to not only retain those two, but he also has to take FL, NC, VA and OH. Simply no scenario where he wins without all four of those, and he still needs one more state (NH, IA, NV, CO) to get him over 270. If he loses one of the first four, he has to take all four of the others to have a shot.

    Of course, the worst part about it is, historically, Romney always starts strong and finishes weak. When people get to know him, they dont like what they see.
     
  5. Katzndogz
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    Katzndogz Diamond Member

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    That's some pretty wishful thinking.

    It must be why Romney is leading right now. obama is just so darn popular in North Carolina and Nevada. By the way, obama has already give up in Indiana. Colorado is following North Carolina out of the swing state category.
     
  6. JoeB131
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    JoeB131 Diamond Member

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    Sorry, man, RCP has them both listed as Swing States, and frankly, the thinking is kind of wishful, as Obama leads in polls in both.

    but he could lose both and still win. All he has to do is take Florida.

    By the way, look for Romney's numbers to crater this week. The Bully story will do him in.



    RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Colorado: Romney vs. Obama

    PPP (D)

    4/5 - 4/7

    542 RV

    53

    40

    Obama +13


    North Carolina-


    RCP Average

    4/4 - 4/30

    --

    46.7

    44.3

    Obama +2.4



    SurveyUSA

    4/26 - 4/30

    1636 RV

    47

    43

    Obama +4



    Rasmussen Reports

    4/10 - 4/10

    500 LV

    44

    46

    Romney +2



    PPP (D)

    4/4 - 4/7

    975 RV

    49

    44

    Obama +5
     

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