Solar rooftop bubble, when will it burst?

Quantum Windbag

Gold Member
May 9, 2010
58,308
5,099
245
I have to admit I hadn't thought of this.

Government efforts to boost affordability and expectations of unsustainably high investment returns generated a booming market that’s destined to crash.I’m talking, of course, about the market for rooftop solar, which has grown exponentially in recent years.
Most people are aware of the government subsidies that offset 30 percent or more of commercial and residential rooftop solar — more than $10,000 for a typical solar home in California. Less known is that those up-front savings, as big as they are, still aren’t enough to generate the double-digit investment returns that solar promoters promise. In fact, for residential solar panels to pay for themselves over their 20-25 year lifespan, households and businesses must receive a second, hidden subsidy for their solar electricity generation that is far too high to be justified by economic fundamentals, and that cannot be sustained in the long run. In California, some residential solar electricity fetches a price nearly four times its energy value.
Much as the recent housing boom was undone by the sudden stop of seemingly interminable home price appreciation; so, too, will the collapse of rooftop solar follow the fall of residential solar electricity prices to levels that can be justified by the value of energy and environmental benefits that residential generation provides.
The exorbitant prices for residential solar generation aren’t determined in an open market. Instead, they are typically the product of historical electricity rate structures set by regulators and net-metering laws enforced in at least 43 states that obligate utilities to buy residential solar electricity at the same rates they sell electricity to their customers. With net metering, solar households can essentially spin their electric meters backward, subtracting their electricity generation from their electricity consumption—getting paid retail rates for solar electricity they export to the grid.


Freakonomics » Is There a Rooftop Solar Bubble? And Is It About to Burst?
 
German rooftop solar price *averages* less than $4 per watt | Grist

http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/lbnl-4121e.pdf

This is why Republicans will ruin this country. They have no understanding of neither Economics nor Science.

http://www.earthtechling.com/2011/05/new-rooftop-solar-to-be-germanys-largest/

http://www.gaccny.com/fileadmin/ahk...ting/Greenteam/Thomas_Chrometzka_-_BSW_01.pdf

http://www.mnn.com/green-tech/resea...-that-will-make-solar-power-cheaper-than-coal

The problem is you have this giant political party that is 90% white and spends far too much time trying to limit education in this country. They don't know anything are are proud of that fact. In fact, they believe "ignorance" gives them both "insight and strength".
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Didn't even read what I posted, or the article, did you?

This is why people ignore you, this thread has nothing to do with the cost of the solar panels, it is about the government mandating that utility companies buy electricity back from home owners at the same rate they charge. That is unsustainable, and at least one company has filed for, and will probably get, an exemption to this requirement. Once that happens the price of solar power for homeowners will suddenly increase because they will not be receiving a government subsidized rate on the energy they produce.

Come back when you learn to read.
 
When the petrodollar standard collapses and hyperinflated $USDs from foreign reserve banks replace the import flow of oil, domestically produced alternate energy -- as long as it's traded in dollars -- will become the most economically efficient and primary source of energy for Americans. At least that's what I hope the plan is.
 
This is why people ignore you, this thread has nothing to do with the cost of the solar panels, it is about the government mandating that utility companies buy electricity back from home owners at the same rate they charge. That is unsustainable, and at least one company has filed for, and will probably get, an exemption to this requirement.

All net-metering that I've seen requires the utilities to give credit for energy produced at a 1/1 comparison, but not to pay cash at the same rate. What this means is that if you have a rooftop solar system with net metering, the utility takes your electricity during the day and gives you a credit for the same amount of power to use in the evening when your solar system isn't generating much, or at night when it's generating nothing. The utility gives you back your electricity free. If your credit runs out, then you pay standard electric rates. If at the end of the year you've produced more than you've earned, then the utility pays you cash for the difference, but NOT at its standard rate -- at a very steep discount.

Seems to me that's quite sustainable, as it actually works. I agree it wouldn't be if it worked the way you seem to think it does.
 
Bursting solar rooftop bubbles reminds me of sunburn blisters on the top of a bald guy's head.
 
As EV's become more common, demand for solar roofs will increase dramatically. For with an EV you have a home battery system. In case of a power outage you could power the absolutely neccessary functions in your home for a long period with kwh's in a automotive battery. Not only this, you could recharge on a daily basis with the solar panels.

Solar panels are becoming cheaper on a daily basis and more efficient, also. There is coming a time when one cannot afford not to have solar if your home has the right roof configuration for it.
 
In general, I don't see a solar "bubble" happening. Solar is benefiting from a combination of improved solar tech and dropping solar prices together with rising oil prices. I do a lot of writing for one of my clients for a renewable energy blog, so I do a fair amount of research into that sort of thing. We're just about at the crossover point where solar and wind both become cost-competitive with fossil fuels. That's a different mechanism than a "bubble."
 
This is why people ignore you, this thread has nothing to do with the cost of the solar panels, it is about the government mandating that utility companies buy electricity back from home owners at the same rate they charge. That is unsustainable, and at least one company has filed for, and will probably get, an exemption to this requirement.

All net-metering that I've seen requires the utilities to give credit for energy produced at a 1/1 comparison, but not to pay cash at the same rate. What this means is that if you have a rooftop solar system with net metering, the utility takes your electricity during the day and gives you a credit for the same amount of power to use in the evening when your solar system isn't generating much, or at night when it's generating nothing. The utility gives you back your electricity free. If your credit runs out, then you pay standard electric rates. If at the end of the year you've produced more than you've earned, then the utility pays you cash for the difference, but NOT at its standard rate -- at a very steep discount.

Seems to me that's quite sustainable, as it actually works. I agree it wouldn't be if it worked the way you seem to think it does.

It works because the utility companies could pass on the loss to other customers when only a small percentage of customers were feeding into the grid, as the percentage of homes doing this increases the cost to utilities goes up, and they need to recoup that by either reducing what they pay to customers who have rooftop solar or charging more to everyone for the electricity they use.

That might be sustainable in a world where the government waves magic wands and prints money, but in a world where the government does not have access to unlimited funds, which includes every state in the US, it is unsustainable. The first state that will drop the requirement will be California, but it will spread to other state rapidly after that.
 
As EV's become more common, demand for solar roofs will increase dramatically. For with an EV you have a home battery system. In case of a power outage you could power the absolutely neccessary functions in your home for a long period with kwh's in a automotive battery. Not only this, you could recharge on a daily basis with the solar panels.

Solar panels are becoming cheaper on a daily basis and more efficient, also. There is coming a time when one cannot afford not to have solar if your home has the right roof configuration for it.

Which will, in turn, dramatically increase the costs to utility companies to store the extra power supplied to their grid, and make the bubble even worse if we do not take action to prevent it.

Or are you assuming you know what the thread is about without actually reading the OP?
 
In general, I don't see a solar "bubble" happening. Solar is benefiting from a combination of improved solar tech and dropping solar prices together with rising oil prices. I do a lot of writing for one of my clients for a renewable energy blog, so I do a fair amount of research into that sort of thing. We're just about at the crossover point where solar and wind both become cost-competitive with fossil fuels. That's a different mechanism than a "bubble."

It amazes me how people try to argue a position without actually understanding the problem. I would suggest that, if you were honest, you would advise your client to find someone who actually understands the issues because you obviously prefer to bury your head in the sand.
 
This is why people ignore you, this thread has nothing to do with the cost of the solar panels, it is about the government mandating that utility companies buy electricity back from home owners at the same rate they charge. That is unsustainable, and at least one company has filed for, and will probably get, an exemption to this requirement.

All net-metering that I've seen requires the utilities to give credit for energy produced at a 1/1 comparison, but not to pay cash at the same rate. What this means is that if you have a rooftop solar system with net metering, the utility takes your electricity during the day and gives you a credit for the same amount of power to use in the evening when your solar system isn't generating much, or at night when it's generating nothing. The utility gives you back your electricity free. If your credit runs out, then you pay standard electric rates. If at the end of the year you've produced more than you've earned, then the utility pays you cash for the difference, but NOT at its standard rate -- at a very steep discount.

Seems to me that's quite sustainable, as it actually works. I agree it wouldn't be if it worked the way you seem to think it does.

Not certain if this is true or not, but that is how I understood that it worked also.
 
German rooftop solar price *averages* less than $4 per watt | Grist

http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/lbnl-4121e.pdf

This is why Republicans will ruin this country. They have no understanding of neither Economics nor Science.

New Rooftop Solar To Be Germany's Largest | EarthTechling

http://www.gaccny.com/fileadmin/ahk...ting/Greenteam/Thomas_Chrometzka_-_BSW_01.pdf

5 breakthroughs that will make solar power cheaper than coal | MNN - Mother Nature Network

The problem is you have this giant political party that is 90% white and spends far too much time trying to limit education in this country. They don't know anything are are proud of that fact. In fact, they believe "ignorance" gives them both "insight and strength".

What "education" is going to make solar at my house affordable in the near future? I've done the research, gotten the quotes and it all is still way too expensive here in reality. I've even consulted with an acquaintance from Germany who is 100% off the grid with his house. He says the tax credits made it possible but the maintenance is a bear.

So please, educate me. Tell me where I can get solar with a reasonable payback.
 
As EV's become more common, demand for solar roofs will increase dramatically. For with an EV you have a home battery system. In case of a power outage you could power the absolutely neccessary functions in your home for a long period with kwh's in a automotive battery. Not only this, you could recharge on a daily basis with the solar panels.
....Then, ya' got those folks who have a tendency to dabble in (what "conservatives" consider) The Dark Arts.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEdQRVQtffw&feature=fvw]Solar hydrogen home Michael Strizki - YouTube[/ame]​
 
As EV's become more common, demand for solar roofs will increase dramatically. For with an EV you have a home battery system. In case of a power outage you could power the absolutely neccessary functions in your home for a long period with kwh's in a automotive battery. Not only this, you could recharge on a daily basis with the solar panels.

Solar panels are becoming cheaper on a daily basis and more efficient, also. There is coming a time when one cannot afford not to have solar if your home has the right roof configuration for it.

?????

Which "absolutely necessary functions" could be powered by an automotive battery, and what is "a long period?" Also, please clue us into how effective a rooftop solar array would be at charging an EV battery. Have you actually seen this system implemented? I have and it's not what you think.
 
German rooftop solar price *averages* less than $4 per watt | Grist

http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/lbnl-4121e.pdf

This is why Republicans will ruin this country. They have no understanding of neither Economics nor Science.

New Rooftop Solar To Be Germany's Largest | EarthTechling

http://www.gaccny.com/fileadmin/ahk...ting/Greenteam/Thomas_Chrometzka_-_BSW_01.pdf

5 breakthroughs that will make solar power cheaper than coal | MNN - Mother Nature Network

The problem is you have this giant political party that is 90% white and spends far too much time trying to limit education in this country. They don't know anything are are proud of that fact. In fact, they believe "ignorance" gives them both "insight and strength".

What "education" is going to make solar at my house affordable in the near future? I've done the research, gotten the quotes and it all is still way too expensive here in reality. I've even consulted with an acquaintance from Germany who is 100% off the grid with his house. He says the tax credits made it possible but the maintenance is a bear.
ooooooooooooooooooooooooooo......wow.......a bear.

How specific.

handjob.gif
 
In general, I don't see a solar "bubble" happening. Solar is benefiting from a combination of improved solar tech and dropping solar prices together with rising oil prices. I do a lot of writing for one of my clients for a renewable energy blog, so I do a fair amount of research into that sort of thing. We're just about at the crossover point where solar and wind both become cost-competitive with fossil fuels. That's a different mechanism than a "bubble."

Perhaps the costs are near the crossover point, but there still is a bubble. Subsidies go away when it's no longer an early adopter issue and without the subsidies it's simply unaffordable for all but the wildly affluent. Currently it's unaffordable for even the mildly affluent.

I really wish the old-tech stuff would stop being subsidized to make room for the new stuff.
 
As EV's become more common, demand for solar roofs will increase dramatically. For with an EV you have a home battery system. In case of a power outage you could power the absolutely neccessary functions in your home for a long period with kwh's in a automotive battery. Not only this, you could recharge on a daily basis with the solar panels.

Solar panels are becoming cheaper on a daily basis and more efficient, also. There is coming a time when one cannot afford not to have solar if your home has the right roof configuration for it.

?????

Which "absolutely necessary functions" could be powered by an automotive battery, and what is "a long period?" Also, please clue us into how effective a rooftop solar array would be at charging an EV battery. Have you actually seen this system implemented?
Ask him if he's seen any o' those solar-bears!!!!

529.gif
 
German rooftop solar price *averages* less than $4 per watt | Grist

http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/lbnl-4121e.pdf

This is why Republicans will ruin this country. They have no understanding of neither Economics nor Science.

New Rooftop Solar To Be Germany's Largest | EarthTechling

http://www.gaccny.com/fileadmin/ahk...ting/Greenteam/Thomas_Chrometzka_-_BSW_01.pdf

5 breakthroughs that will make solar power cheaper than coal | MNN - Mother Nature Network

The problem is you have this giant political party that is 90% white and spends far too much time trying to limit education in this country. They don't know anything are are proud of that fact. In fact, they believe "ignorance" gives them both "insight and strength".

Have panels on YOUR roof rdean?
When the technology has matured to the point where it makes economic sense to install solar, I'll stop burning PCB's, old railroad ties and used motor oil to heat my home. If you don't like polution, stay the fuck away from Foley, Alabama.
 

Forum List

Back
Top