So How Screwed are Democrats for 2016?

[WelfareQueen]

I'm looking forward to 2016

Republicans believing America is buying their message
Another weak GOP candidate keeping Republicans home
Republicans defending 24 Senate seats vs the Dems 10
US demographics moving away from old white guys

The demographics are moving away from the Dems. Big time. The Dems are barely getting a 1/3 rd of the white vote. You cannot win elections that way. In addition, millennials and blacks are starting to move away. A very bad combination.

Yes...I hope the Republicans are counting on millenials and blacks in 2016

Also looking to see how they do with Hispanics as they attempt to trash Obamas immigration reform
They pulled 45% of the womens vote in 2012, hard for them to break 40 if Hillary or Warren runs

Whites do not vote for Democrats anymore. You cannot escape that problem no matter how you try to spin it.

The Dem formula for winning elections is 40% of the white vote and 90% of the black vote. The last election cycle Dems got 37% of the white vote and 89% of the black vote. Millennial support dropped 17-18% in many races (Kay Hagan) and dropped 9% overall.

Sorry...the Dems are in rough shape heading into 2016.

 

[rightwinger]

I'm looking forward to 2016

Republicans believing America is buying their message
Another weak GOP candidate keeping Republicans home
Republicans defending 24 Senate seats vs the Dems 10
US demographics moving away from old white guys

The demographics are moving away from the Dems. Big time. The Dems are barely getting a 1/3 rd of the white vote. You cannot win elections that way. In addition, millennials and blacks are starting to move away. A very bad combination.

Yes...I hope the Republicans are counting on millenials and blacks in 2016

Also looking to see how they do with Hispanics as they attempt to trash Obamas immigration reform
They pulled 45% of the womens vote in 2012, hard for them to break 40 if Hillary or Warren runs

Whites do not vote for Democrats anymore. You cannot escape that problem no matter how you try to spin it.

The Dem formula for winning elections is 40% of the white vote and 90% of the black vote. The last election cycle Dems got 37% of the white vote and 89% of the black vote. Millennial support dropped 17-18% in many races (Kay Hagan) and dropped 9% overall.

Sorry...the Dems are in rough shape heading into 2016.

Lets see...

In 2016 Dems get:
Womens vote
Hispanic vote
Black vote
Young vote

Republicans get:
Old, white, christian male vote

 

[WelfareQueen]

I'm looking forward to 2016

Republicans believing America is buying their message
Another weak GOP candidate keeping Republicans home
Republicans defending 24 Senate seats vs the Dems 10
US demographics moving away from old white guys

The demographics are moving away from the Dems. Big time. The Dems are barely getting a 1/3 rd of the white vote. You cannot win elections that way. In addition, millennials and blacks are starting to move away. A very bad combination.

Yes...I hope the Republicans are counting on millenials and blacks in 2016

Also looking to see how they do with Hispanics as they attempt to trash Obamas immigration reform
They pulled 45% of the womens vote in 2012, hard for them to break 40 if Hillary or Warren runs

Whites do not vote for Democrats anymore. You cannot escape that problem no matter how you try to spin it.

The Dem formula for winning elections is 40% of the white vote and 90% of the black vote. The last election cycle Dems got 37% of the white vote and 89% of the black vote. Millennial support dropped 17-18% in many races (Kay Hagan) and dropped 9% overall.

Sorry...the Dems are in rough shape heading into 2016.

Lets see...

In 2016 Dems get:
Womens vote
Hispanic vote
Black vote
Young vote

Republicans get:
Old, white, christian male vote

Dems have to get 40% of the white vote to win. It cannot be more simple. Whether you accept it or not is beside the point. Getting 37% of the white vote in the last election cycle was a disaster.

The minority vote and young people are not enough unless there is a black man on the top of the ticket. It will not work.

No one expects Hillary to get anywhere near the black turn out Obama did. Plus some early polling indicates many in the black community are angry over the Dems amnesty stance.

Bottom line: The Dems must court white voters. Strictly appealing to their liberal base or minorities does not cut it anymore.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Dems need to have about 40% of the white voters, so they need to increase that vote by 10%. A good economy and a solid candidate will be a great help in getting to a win.

The Pubs can counter by continuing to reach out to women and minorities.

 

[rightwinger]

I'm looking forward to 2016

Republicans believing America is buying their message
Another weak GOP candidate keeping Republicans home
Republicans defending 24 Senate seats vs the Dems 10
US demographics moving away from old white guys

The demographics are moving away from the Dems. Big time. The Dems are barely getting a 1/3 rd of the white vote. You cannot win elections that way. In addition, millennials and blacks are starting to move away. A very bad combination.

Yes...I hope the Republicans are counting on millenials and blacks in 2016

Also looking to see how they do with Hispanics as they attempt to trash Obamas immigration reform
They pulled 45% of the womens vote in 2012, hard for them to break 40 if Hillary or Warren runs

Whites do not vote for Democrats anymore. You cannot escape that problem no matter how you try to spin it.

The Dem formula for winning elections is 40% of the white vote and 90% of the black vote. The last election cycle Dems got 37% of the white vote and 89% of the black vote. Millennial support dropped 17-18% in many races (Kay Hagan) and dropped 9% overall.

Sorry...the Dems are in rough shape heading into 2016.

Lets see...

In 2016 Dems get:
Womens vote
Hispanic vote
Black vote
Young vote

Republicans get:
Old, white, christian male vote

Dems have to get 40% of the white vote to win. It cannot be more simple. Whether you accept it or not is beside the point. Getting 37% of the white vote in the last election cycle was a disaster.

The minority vote and young people are not enough unless there is a black man on the top of the ticket. It will not work.

No one expects Hillary to get anywhere near the black turn out Obama did. Plus some early polling indicates many in the black community are angry over the Dems amnesty stance.

Bottom line: The Dems must court white voters. Strictly appealing to their liberal base or minorities does not cut it anymore.

Bill Clinton got almost as much of the black vote as Obama did

I will gladly trade the lost black vote for the additional womens vote

 

[SwimExpert]

"In recent weeks, Democratic operatives have begun to voice concerns that the 2014 midterms made plain the limits of an approach that failed to reach beyond minority groups or those who are reflexively liberal. And yet what should come next is not yet totally clear."

That seems like an assessment of someone who is reflexively liberal.

 

[JakeStarkey]

That seems like an assessment of someone who is reflexively liberal.

Your assessment seems reflexively regressive.

 

[WelfareQueen]

The demographics are moving away from the Dems. Big time. The Dems are barely getting a 1/3 rd of the white vote. You cannot win elections that way. In addition, millennials and blacks are starting to move away. A very bad combination.

Yes...I hope the Republicans are counting on millenials and blacks in 2016

Also looking to see how they do with Hispanics as they attempt to trash Obamas immigration reform
They pulled 45% of the womens vote in 2012, hard for them to break 40 if Hillary or Warren runs

Whites do not vote for Democrats anymore. You cannot escape that problem no matter how you try to spin it.

The Dem formula for winning elections is 40% of the white vote and 90% of the black vote. The last election cycle Dems got 37% of the white vote and 89% of the black vote. Millennial support dropped 17-18% in many races (Kay Hagan) and dropped 9% overall.

Sorry...the Dems are in rough shape heading into 2016.

Lets see...

In 2016 Dems get:
Womens vote
Hispanic vote
Black vote
Young vote

Republicans get:
Old, white, christian male vote

Dems have to get 40% of the white vote to win. It cannot be more simple. Whether you accept it or not is beside the point. Getting 37% of the white vote in the last election cycle was a disaster.

The minority vote and young people are not enough unless there is a black man on the top of the ticket. It will not work.

No one expects Hillary to get anywhere near the black turn out Obama did. Plus some early polling indicates many in the black community are angry over the Dems amnesty stance.

Bottom line: The Dems must court white voters. Strictly appealing to their liberal base or minorities does not cut it anymore.

Bill Clinton got almost as much of the black vote as Obama did

I will gladly trade the lost black vote for the additional womens vote

You've lost white women. Big.

Dems need the white vote. Both men and women. Right now they're lost. Unless the Dems start actively courting white voters they will struggle in elections.

Again....the Dems have had under 40% of the white vote in the last 3 election cycles. The only cycle they won had a black man at the top of the ticket. No Obama...and the minority/young people cohort falls apart.

Dems must reach out to moderate and independent white voters. It cannot be any more simple. A left wing nut like Elizabeth Warren would be a disaster. Ditto Hillary if she runs as an Obama Democrat.

 

[WelfareQueen]

I posted these in another thread but it bears repeating. Whoever runs in 2016 for the Dems this is the Obama legacy. It will be a steep hill to climb.


Job Participation Rate.

Median Family Income

 

[SwimExpert]

That seems like an assessment of someone who is reflexively liberal.

Your assessment seems reflexively regressive.

I don't see how. The most recent midterm election is a very poor method to assess either Democrats or Republicans political health in the near future. Extremely low turnout, conflicting poll results. The seats went in the Rs favor. But the issues went in the Ds favor. All of the circumstances external to each race were already in favor of the Rs, so the fact that we gained really doesn't say much other than the fact that a rock rolling downhill will roll downhill.

The outcome of 2016 has not even begun to be drafted yet. Nobody has any idea who the candidates will be. Nobody has any idea what the issues will be. There is so much going on right now that we simply cannot know. Will the economy continue to do well? Will Republicans and Obama work together and pass reasonable compromises? Will one or the other side run rampant obstruction? It's what happens over these next two years that will determine 2016. Not what's happened over the past two months.

 

[Mac1958]

.

The feeling I'm getting - this far away - is that 2016 could pretty much go either way.

Both parties have an excellent opportunity to do what they do best, shoot themselves in the foot.

The party with the fewer bullet holes will do best.

.

 

[WelfareQueen]

That seems like an assessment of someone who is reflexively liberal.

Your assessment seems reflexively regressive.

I don't see how. The most recent midterm election is a very poor method to assess either Democrats or Republicans political health in the near future. Extremely low turnout, conflicting poll results. The seats went in the Rs favor. But the issues went in the Ds favor. All of the circumstances external to each race were already in favor of the Rs, so the fact that we gained really doesn't say much other than the fact that a rock rolling downhill will roll downhill.

The outcome of 2016 has not even begun to be drafted yet. Nobody has any idea who the candidates will be. Nobody has any idea what the issues will be. There is so much going on right now that we simply cannot know. Will the economy continue to do well? Will Republicans and Obama work together and pass reasonable compromises? Will one or the other side run rampant obstruction? It's what happens over these next two years that will determine 2016. Not what's happened over the past two months.

I agree with most of your post. However, the trending of white voters away from the Dems has been happening since 2006. That is much more than one election cycle.

The erosion of blacks and young voters in a newer phenomena.....but troubling if you are a Dem.

To chalk it all up to the last election is misguided. There are deep problems the Dems have with white voters.....


And again....I am making no predictions. I am simply saying the Dems will have trouble unless they actively reach out to white voters. They will continue to struggle in winning elections with less than 40% of the white vote.

 

[Disir]

The problem with the Democrats is the same problem with the Republicans. These clowns run around in circles to locate a message. It isn't what you say. It's what you do. These clowns spent way too much time in front of a tv and really and truly believe that PR is king.

Stop trying to sell a package.

 

[SwimExpert]

These clowns spent way too much time in front of a tv and really and truly believe that PR is king.

Stop trying to sell a package.

But it is. Marketing is superior to production. Marketing is what sells.

 

[Disir]

These clowns spent way too much time in front of a tv and really and truly believe that PR is king.

Stop trying to sell a package.

But it is. Marketing is superior to production. Marketing is what sells.

And if that were the case then this wouldn't be an issue.

Sorry, man, underneath all the bullshit is a neoliberal push.

The opposite side is a neoliberal push.

So, I'd say that marketing isn't selling a damn thing.

 

[WelfareQueen]

You can argue the marketing challenge for the GOP is reaching out to minorities and the young. For the Dems it is white folks.

And sadly....it is largely about market a message to appeal to those voting blocs.

 

[Disir]

It doesn't matter what they say but what they do. You can't sell what you don't have...........for very long.

 

[mudwhistle]

So much of the agenda and the absurd Hope&Change mantra have fallen flat. The Dems will need a very dynamic candidate to carry them and I don't see one on the horizon.

If the Democrats can't find a dynamic candidate they'll invent one like they did in 2008.

 

[SwimExpert]

And if that were the case then this wouldn't be an issue.

Sorry, man, underneath all the bullshit is a neoliberal push.

The opposite side is a neoliberal push.

So, I'd say that marketing isn't selling a damn thing.

The politicians keep getting elected, don't they? The Republicans and Democrats both remain the only two major parties in the country, aren't they? Two of the oldest parties in the entire world, no less. Obviously, the marketing IS working.

 

[Disir]

And if that were the case then this wouldn't be an issue.

Sorry, man, underneath all the bullshit is a neoliberal push.

The opposite side is a neoliberal push.

So, I'd say that marketing isn't selling a damn thing.

The politicians keep getting elected, don't they? The Republicans and Democrats both remain the only two major parties in the country, aren't they? Two of the oldest parties in the entire world, no less. Obviously, the marketing IS working.

I can see by the number of voters that showed up this last election cycle.

Look.

If you know that the reason that tuition has increased for higher education is due to the butchering of funding in states and your response is not replacing the funding then you don't have a solution.

The Republicans can jump up and down and use the responsibility meme and cry big alligator tears but they have nothing.
The Democrats can finger point and blame it on the Republicans and cry big alligator tears but they have nothing.

Resolving the issue would be replacing the funding back into higher ed.

They are both for the neoliberal push. They don't want a solution.

So, ya, how long do you think that line of bullshit from either side is going to play?

Your third parties start at the ground and take time.