Senate outlook for 2016

[blackhawk]

I will care about this in March of 2016.

 

[guno]

"Looks good for Democrats"

I heard that all of 2014

As most political observers know - a General Election is much different than a mid-term election.

Save it Lieawatha, you loons vowed you wouldn't lose the Senate and guess what happened? You were shellacked, annihilated....why do you think that happened?

Its all over for the white christer clown party in a national election year

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

The Reid seat will likely go to the GOP and the Republicans uo for reelection are pretty safe.

Only if Sandoval runs and apparently he keep saying he has no interest. If he doesn't run it's going to be a knockout drag and drop fight to the end.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Democrats only need to pick up FIVE seats to retake the Senate.

Unless there's a wave in their favor I find that unlikely to happen at this point in time, but there's a lot that can happen in the next year and a half.

 

[Nyvin]

You've got to strike Mikulski, Boxer and Reid running. Except for 3 or 4, those Republicans are in pretty red states and the blue dogs are finished. Senate stays Republican.

The Reid seat will likely go to the GOP and the Republicans uo for reelection are pretty safe.

Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson "pretty safe"??? pfff, yeah okay...

 

[Nyvin]

Democrats only need to pick up FIVE seats to retake the Senate.

Unless there's a wave in their favor I find that unlikely to happen at this point in time, but there's a lot that can happen in the next year and a half.

I think things are coming along great for the Democrats, Patrick Murphy and Russ Feingold are both outstanding candidates. Ted Strickland is a good bet too. I think Maggie Hassan in NH has interests in running too and incumbent governors have a really good track record of unseating incumbent senators.

All four of them are wonderful candidates, that's 4 seats right there and Mark Kirk in Illinois is extremely vulnerable too. He largely only won in 2010 due to an open seat and scandal with Blagojevich, even then it was only with 48% of the vote in a GOP wave, winning by 2%.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

I think things are coming along great for the Democrats, Patrick Murphy and Russ Feingold are both outstanding candidates.

Murphy might make Florida more competitive, but Rubio will still have the advantage.

Feingold was defeated by Johnson last time, I don't know that I would consider him outstanding, but would definitely make it a contest. Has he even said he was going to run?

Ted Strickland is a good bet too. I think Maggie Hassan in NH has interests in running too and incumbent governors have a really good track record of unseating incumbent senators.

I don't know if there is any truth to that statement or not.

All four of them are wonderful candidates, that's 4 seats right there and Mark Kirk in Illinois is extremely vulnerable too (he largely only won in 2010 due to an open seat and scandal with Blagojevich.

Four seats that are no guarantee and I doubt all four of them would be successful unless the electorate is really upset with the GOP the way they were upset with the Dems in 2010 and 2014. As far as Kirk goes, you'd think he'd have the toughest seat to defend, but not necessarily. You have to look at his popularity. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe won reelection consistently in Maine during presidential years and by pretty large margins despite their state going Democratic.

Let's also not forget about Indiana which is an open seat now which Dems could grab in the right environment or Nevada which Republicans could grab to offset a loss somewhere else. Grassley is getting up there in age. He could still announce a retirement throw Iowa into play and I wouldn't discount Colorado just yet after what happened to Udall last year.

With the vast difference in numbers of seats to defend I would gather right now the Republicans might have a net loss of one or two at best, but's too early to know how things will work out next year. Anybody saying conclusively what will happen is just posturing to make themselves feel better.

 

[whitehall]

"Outlook" kinda rimes with "wishbook". It's amazing that the low information left still can't mentally deal with the biggest mid term landslide in history just last fall.

 

[deltex1]

Only 10 Democrats are up for re-election in 2016 - and 24 Republicans. Looks good for Democrats.

DEMOCRATS

Michael Bennet (Colorado)
Richard Blumenthal (Connecticut)
Barbara Boxer (California) retiring in 2016
Patrick Leahy (Vermont)
Barbara Mikulski (Maryland)
Patty Murray (Washington)
Harry Reid (Nevada)
Brian Schatz (Hawaii)
Charles Schumer (New York)
Ron Wyden (Oregon)

REPUBLICANS

Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire)
Roy Blunt (Missouri)
John Boozman (Arkansas)
Richard Burr (North Carolina)
Dan Coats (Indiana)
Mike Crapo (Idaho)
Chuck Grassley (Iowa)
John Hoeven (North Dakota)
Johnny Isakson (Georgia)
Ron Johnson (Wisconsin)
Mark Kirk (Illinois)
James Lankford (Oklahoma)
Mike Lee (Utah)
John McCain (Arizona)
Jerry Moran (Kansas)
Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)
Rand Paul (Kentucky)
Rob Portman (Ohio)
Marco Rubio (Florida)
Tim Scott (South Carolina)
Richard Shelby (Alabama)
John Thune (South Dakota)
Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania)
David Vitter (Louisiana)

Up for Re-Election in 2016

Dems will definitely have Hillary's coattails to ride in on...or more specifically, ride down on. Lmfao!

 

[Nyvin]

Murphy might make Florida more competitive, but Rubio will still have the advantage.

If he runs for President (which everything right now shows he will) he's ineligible to run for Senate. It's like 90% certainty that Florida will be an open seat.

Feingold was defeated by Johnson last time, I don't know that I would consider him outstanding, but would definitely make it a contest. Has he even said he was going to run?

He left the state department and went back to Wisconsin, traveling the state "listening to the concerns of Wisconsin residents". That's all but announcing really. He's still very popular too, unlike Johnson.

I don't know if there is any truth to that statement or not.

There is, the statistics are out there if you want to look it up. More often than not, when a popular governor runs for senate, the incumbent Senator is in trouble.

Four seats that are no guarantee and I doubt all four of them would be successful unless the electorate is really upset with the GOP the way they were upset with the Dems in 2010 and 2014. As far as Kirk goes, you'd think he'd have the toughest seat to defend, but not necessarily. You have to look at his popularity. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe won reelection consistently in Maine during presidential years and by pretty large margins despite their state going Democratic.

Maine is a quirky state though, it used to be Republican like New Hampshire was. It also elects independents all the time. Illinois is more your typical "blue state" and also much more deeply democratic than Maine. Also Maine is notorious for it's three way races that split votes. Maine is just....who knows, I don't think anyone understands Maine's politics.

Let's also not forget about Indiana which is an open seat now which Dems could grab in the right environment or Nevada which Republicans could grab to offset a loss somewhere else. Grassley is getting up there in age. He could still announce a retirement throw Iowa into play and I wouldn't discount Colorado just yet after what happened to Udall last year.

With the vast difference in numbers of seats to defend I would gather right now the Republicans might have a net loss of one or two at best, but's too early to know how things will work out next year. Anybody saying conclusively what will happen is just posturing to make themselves feel better.

Grassley should retire, so should Leahy, they're both just too old to run again. I strongly expect John McCain to announce his retirement soon too.

 

[Preacher]

Only 10 Democrats are up for re-election in 2016 - and 24 Republicans. Looks good for Democrats.

DEMOCRATS

Michael Bennet (Colorado)
Richard Blumenthal (Connecticut)
Barbara Boxer (California) retiring in 2016
Patrick Leahy (Vermont)
Barbara Mikulski (Maryland)
Patty Murray (Washington)
Harry Reid (Nevada)
Brian Schatz (Hawaii)
Charles Schumer (New York)
Ron Wyden (Oregon)

REPUBLICANS

Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire)
Roy Blunt (Missouri)
John Boozman (Arkansas)
Richard Burr (North Carolina)
Dan Coats (Indiana)
Mike Crapo (Idaho)
Chuck Grassley (Iowa)
John Hoeven (North Dakota)
Johnny Isakson (Georgia)
Ron Johnson (Wisconsin)
Mark Kirk (Illinois)
James Lankford (Oklahoma)
Mike Lee (Utah)
John McCain (Arizona)
Jerry Moran (Kansas)
Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)
Rand Paul (Kentucky)
Rob Portman (Ohio)
Marco Rubio (Florida)
Tim Scott (South Carolina)
Richard Shelby (Alabama)
John Thune (South Dakota)
Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania)
David Vitter (Louisiana)

Up for Re-Election in 2016

Reid is retiring as well. I think McCain and Isakson could lose.Michele Nunn would be awesome if she ran again....against Isakson this time..Rand can't run for senate and president at same time so....