Sea level rise, a lecture at the Naval War College

[Old Rocks]

An assessment of sea level rise presented to the Naval War College

 

[AnCap'n_Murica]

Are the richie-rich libbie moonbats who live in Malibu and South Beach liquidating their beachfront palaces?

When that happens, then you come wake us all up.

 

[Kosh]

Yes the sea rises every time at high tide!

 

[ScienceRocks]

Oh'lookie here, Kosh knows more then the fucking navy about our oceans. Where did you get your PHD, good sir?

 

[yiostheoy]

Is there a link to the data anywhere?

I have heard that flooding in Florida during hurricanes is getting worse.

But I have not seen any good scientific data on it yet.

 

[Old Rocks]

New Study Shows Increased Flooding, Accelerated Sea-Level Rise in Miami Over Last Decade
Researchers suggest using local sea-level rise projections to better protect community from coastal floods
April 04, 2016

MIAMI—A new University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science-led study found that Miami Beach flood events have significantly increased over the last decade due to an acceleration of sea-level rise in South Florida. The researchers suggest that regional sea-level projections should be used in place of global projections to better prepare for future flood hazards in the region.

To quantify the flood hazard in Miami Beach, the UM Rosenstiel School researchers analyzed tide and rain-gauge records, media reports, insurance claims, and photos of flooding events on Miami Beach and in Miami since 2006. The insurance claims and media reports helped the researchers pinpoint the date and type of flood events.

“Our results show that the effect of sea-level rise is real and affecting the daily life of people living in low-lying coastal communities, such as Miami Beach,” said Shimon Wdowinski, UM Rosenstiel School research professor of marine geosciences, and lead author of the study.

The results showed that the flooding frequency in Miami Beach has significantly increased after 2006 mainly due to increasing number of high-tide flooding events. The increased flooding frequency coincides with acceleration in the rate of sea level rise in South Florida. The average rate of sea-level rise increased by 6 millimeters per year over the last decade - from 3 millimeters per year before 2006 to 9 millimeters per year after 2006.

The study also provides new evidence that connects the weakening of the Gulf Stream with sea-level rise along the US Atlantic coast.
Florida is one of the most vulnerable areas to sea-level rise due to its low elevation, large population concentrations, and economic importance. Accelerated rates of sea-level rise have caused a significant increase in flooding frequency in several coastal communities in Florida.

New Study Shows Increased Flooding, Accelerated Sea-Level Rise in Miami Over Last Decade | The Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science at the University of Miami

Here is one.

 

[Old Rocks]

Ocean & Coastal Management

Volume 126, June 2016, Pages 1–8



Increasing flooding hazard in coastal communities due to rising sea level: Case study of Miami Beach, Florida

• Shimon Wdowinskia, , ,
• Ronald Braya,
• Ben P. Kirtmana,
• Zhaohua Wub

Highlights


•
Flooding frequency in Miami Beach increased significantly since 2006, mostly due to high tide events.

•
The average rate of sea level rise in Southeast Florida increased from 3 ± 2 mm/yr prior to 2006 to 9 ± 4 mm/yr after 2006.

•
Increasing sea level in the Miami area correlates with weakening of the entire Gulf Stream system (decrease in kinetic energy).

•
Engineering solutions to SLR should rely on regional sea level rise rate projections and not only on the commonly used global SLR projections.



Abstract
Sea level rise (SLR) imposes an increasing flooding hazard on low-lying coastal communities due to higher exposure to high-tide conditions and storm surge. Additional coastal flooding hazard arises due to reduced effectiveness of gravity-based drainage systems to drain rainwater during heavy rain events. Over the past decade, several coastal communities along the US Atlantic coast have experienced an increasing rate of flooding events. In this study, we focus on the increasing flooding hazard in Miami Beach, Florida, which has caused severe property damage and significant disruptions to daily life. We evaluate the flooding frequency and its causes by analyzing tide and rain gauge records, media reports, insurance claims, and photo records from Miami Beach acquired during 1998–2013. Our analysis indicates that significant changes in flooding frequency occurred after 2006, in which rain-induced events increased by 33% and tide-induced events increased by more than 400%. We also analyzed tide gauge records from Southeast Florida and detected a decadal-scale accelerating rates of SLR. The average pre-2006 rate is 3 ± 2 mm/yr, similar to the global long-term rate of SLR, whereas after 2006 the average rate of SLR in Southeast Florida rose to 9 ± 4 mm/yr. Our results suggest that engineering solutions to SLR should rely on regional SLR rate projections and not only on the commonly used global SLR projections.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569116300278

Another.

 

[Old Rocks]

Miami Beach's Tidal Flooding Has Jumped by 400 Percent in the Past Decade
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 6, 2016 AT 9:30 A.M.
BY TIM ELFRINK

Floods like this have become much more common in South Beach since 2006, UM researchers have found.
photo by Maxstrz via Flickr CC
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Talk to certain native Floridians about sea-level rise, and they'll scoff at the idea that the floods regularly swamping cars and drowning businesses in South Beach are anything new. "Why, I remember a flood in 1962 that you can't imagine!" they'll say.

Sorry, old-timey climate-change deniers. Miami Beach's flooding is definitely unprecedented, and it's happening at a shockingly more frequent rate.

That's the conclusion of a team of University of Miami scientists that used a wealth of data from everything from tidal records and rain gauges to insurance claims to look at how often Miami Beach's streets have ended up underwater. They found that since 2006, rain-based floods have increased by 33 percent and tidal flooding by an astounding 400 percent.

"That's a surprising number," says Dr. Shimon Wdowinski, the study's lead author. "Nobody can say whether it will continue increasing at this rate. But this is still clearly a significant increase in flooding events."

Wdowinski, an Israeli-born, Harvard-educated geophysics professor, says he was inspired to look into flooding frequency by a 2013 Rolling Stonemagazine story headlined "Goodbye, Miami," about the grim prospects of sea-level rise in South Florida.

Miami Beach's Tidal Flooding Has Jumped by 400 Percent in the Past Decade

Much more has been written about the present flooding in Florida newspapers.

 

[polarbear]

Oh'lookie here, Kosh knows more then the fucking navy about our oceans. Where did you get your PHD, good sir?

An alarmist marine biologist gives a presentation at a naval college and in your mind that is the same as the "f-ing navy" now "knows" that AGW is linked to ocean levels rising?
I am quite sure that the "f-ng navy" is not too stupid to evaluate trends:
File:Post-Glacial Sea Level.png - Wikipedia

 

[mamooth]

Well then, let's see what the US Navy does officially say.

http://www.navy.mil/navydata/documents/CCR.pdf
---
Climate change will affect future Fleet operations by changing the operating environment. Maritime examples include the opening of the Arctic
ocean and the potential for sea level rise to reduce the availability of overseas ports for refueling and re-supply.
---

 

[Old Rocks]

http://www.navy.mil/navydata/documents/CCR.pdf

Task Force Climate Change / Oceanographer of the Navy

Executive Summary

Climate change is a national security challenge with strategic implications for the Navy. Climate change will lead to increased tensions in nations with weak economies and political institutions. While climate change alone is not likely to lead to future conflict, it may be a contributing factor. Climate change is affecting, and will continue to affect, U.S. military installations and access to natural resources worldwide. It will affect the type, scope, and location of future Navy missions.

The Navy Climate Change Roadmap outlines the Navy’s approach to observing, predicting, and adapting to climate change by providing a chronological list of Navyassociated action items, objectives, and desired effects for FY10-14. The Navy’s climate change mitigation efforts are not represented in this document as they will be addressed by the Navy’s Energy Strategy developed by Task Force Energy (TFE). This Climate Change Roadmap is intended as a companion document to the Navy Arctic Roadmap of 2009, and its focus areas include:
• Strategy, policy, and plans
• Operations and training
• Investments in capability and infrastructure
• Strategic communications and outreach
• Environmental assessment and prediction

Navy action items and objectives within this roadmap are intended to achieve the following desired effects:
• The Navy is fully mission-capable through changing climatic conditions while actively contributing to national requirements for addressing climate change
• Naval force structure and infrastructure are capable of meeting combatant commander requirements in all probable climatic conditions over the next 30 years
• The Navy understands the timing, severity, and impact of current and projected changes in the global environment
• The media, public, government, Joint, interagency, and international community understand how and why the Navy is effectively addressing climate change
• The Navy is recognized as a valuable joint, interagency, and international partner in responding to climate change

This is from 7 years ago, and the factors that brought this paper about are even more evident.

 

[Old Rocks]

Admiral Titley addresses security concerns and climate change

 

[polarbear]

Well then, let's see what the US Navy does officially say.

http://www.navy.mil/navydata/documents/CCR.pdf
---
Climate change will affect future Fleet operations by changing the operating environment. Maritime examples include the opening of the Arctic
ocean and the potential for sea level rise to reduce the availability of overseas ports for refueling and re-supply.
---

Yes indeed let`s see who it REALLY was who said so.
It was not the Navy but the beloved Fuehrer aka commander in chief who shoved this Climate Change Task Force Director down their throat, as usual by executive order:

Sec. 13. Supporting Federal Facility Climate Preparedness and Resilience. The head of each agency shall, consistent with Executive Order 13653 of November 1, 2013, ensure that agency operations and facilities prepare for impacts of climate change as part of the planning requirements of section 14 of this order and consistent with planning required under section 5 of Executive Order 13653
Section 1 of Executive Order 13677 of September 23, 2014, is amended by striking "Executive Order 13514 of October 5, 2009 (Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance), and Executive Order 13653 of November 1, 2013 (Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change)
It`s not as if the Navy had any concerns and asked for these assholes to advise them.
FACT SHEET: Executive Order on Climate Preparedness
This is no different when Obama`s executive order 13672 was shoved down their throat
It was not as if the Navy insisted that submariners have to be in close quarters with a bunch of fags.
Do you really believe the Navy would have done any of this without these hair brained executive orders?
I bet 13653 and the ones it amended will be struck down by Trump and that will be the end of this crap "The Navy says blah blah climate change blah blah "

 

[mamooth]

Yes indeed let`s see who it REALLY was who said so.
It was not the Navy but the beloved Fuehrer aka commander in chief who shoved this Climate Change Task Force Director down their throat, as usual by executive order:

Sec. 13. Supporting Federal Facility Climate Preparedness and Resilience. The head of each agency shall, consistent with Executive Order 13653 of November 1, 2013,

That Navy report I linked to was from 2010. So how could it have been created by a 2013 EO?

Oh, I forgot. You assign deity-level powers to Obama, believing he has the power to transcend both time and space.

 

[polarbear]

Yes indeed let`s see who it REALLY was who said so.
It was not the Navy but the beloved Fuehrer aka commander in chief who shoved this Climate Change Task Force Director down their throat, as usual by executive order:

Sec. 13. Supporting Federal Facility Climate Preparedness and Resilience. The head of each agency shall, consistent with Executive Order 13653 of November 1, 2013,

That Navy report I linked to was from 2010. So how could it have been created by a 2013 EO?

Oh, I forgot. You assign deity-level powers to Obama, believing he has the power to transcend both time and space.

Spare us your usual verbiage, the pdf you posted clearly cites in appendix B:
5. White House Office of the Press Secretary, Executive Order 13514,
Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy,
Economic, and Economic Performance
(5 October 2009).
And executive order 1365 followed 4 years later after the assholes in the WHAdmin noticed that their pet project wound up on the Navy back burner...a "road map document", just another piece of asswipe in somebodies desk drawer.

 

[Crick]

Navy Secretary Ray Maybus has emerged as one of the most forceful and eloquent advocates for climate action, and specifically for new energy technology.

Here’s a couple of snippets from his speech last spring at the Arizona State University Global Institute of Sustainability in which he explains why the Navy is historically wired to act on climate change. Don’t blink or you’ll miss the veiled reference to climate deniers:

Sailors, no matter where they are from, look out over the ocean and see nothing but the horizon, nothing but the future.

[snip]

…After all, it was the Navy that switched its source of power from sail to steam in the 19th Century, from steam to oil at the beginning of the 20th Century and we pioneered nuclear power as a propulsion source in the middle of the 20th Century. And, by the way, every single time we made one of these dramatic changes in energy there were naysayers who spoke and worked against the change.

US Navy Reacts To Blockbuster Rolling Stone Climate Change Story