Scott Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster in the business

[Vast LWC]

uh huh.."tad" selective aren't we?

were where you when gallup had obama down 5 and ras had him flat in popularity etc?

you do know there is a big difference between expectations results, ala RV and LV sampling this far out from the election....? right?

and please, media polls are not quotable imho, I have always had that stance and said so, here at this forum (too)

last but not least, please post the pollsters with better records say over the last 6 elections, thx in advance.


or how about this-

Rasmussen Reports 6/18 - 6/20 1500 LV 3.0 43 47 Romney +4
Gallup 6/14 - 6/20 3050 RV 2.0 45 47 Romney +2
Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 734 LV 3.6 53 40 Obama +13

any remarks?

Actually, I remember that poll specifically, and I stated at the time that Bloomberg's was a clear outlier.

There was a thread about that a few weeks ago.

Notice there is no Bloomberg poll included here.

As far as past polls go, Rasmussen was tied for sixth among the major pollsters in the 2008 presidential race, so I'm not really sure what you're driving at there...

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

Not.


RCP Average..................47/44.4..Obama +2.6

Gallup Tracking ..............48/44....Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking.......44/47....Romney +3
CNN/Opinion Research....49/46....Obama +3
Newsweek/Daily Beast....47/44....Obama +3
Democracy Corps (D)......49/46....Obama +3
FOX News......................45/40....Obama +5
NBC News/WS Journal.....47/44....Obama +3


But I guess FoxNews and the Wall Street Journal are just liberal media propaganda outlets...

Fox news has obama winning by the most on your list. Kinda blows a huge hole in your attempt to sarcastically paint fox news with the media bias brush.

 

[Vast LWC]

Not.


RCP Average..................47/44.4..Obama +2.6

Gallup Tracking ..............48/44....Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking.......44/47....Romney +3
CNN/Opinion Research....49/46....Obama +3
Newsweek/Daily Beast....47/44....Obama +3
Democracy Corps (D)......49/46....Obama +3
FOX News......................45/40....Obama +5
NBC News/WS Journal.....47/44....Obama +3


But I guess FoxNews and the Wall Street Journal are just liberal media propaganda outlets...

Fox news has obama winning by the most in the list. Kinda blows a huge hole in your attempt to sarcastically paint fox news with the media bias brush.

I wasn't. I was trying to paint Scott Rasmussen with the media bias brush.

As far as I know, Fox's polls haven't been biased historically at all.

Unlike the rest of their media organization.

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

Not.


RCP Average..................47/44.4..Obama +2.6

Gallup Tracking ..............48/44....Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking.......44/47....Romney +3
CNN/Opinion Research....49/46....Obama +3
Newsweek/Daily Beast....47/44....Obama +3
Democracy Corps (D)......49/46....Obama +3
FOX News......................45/40....Obama +5
NBC News/WS Journal.....47/44....Obama +3


But I guess FoxNews and the Wall Street Journal are just liberal media propaganda outlets...

Fox news has obama winning by the most in the list. Kinda blows a huge hole in your attempt to sarcastically paint fox news with the media bias brush.

I wasn't. I was trying to paint Scott Rasmussen with the media bias brush.

As far as I know, Fox's polls haven't been biased historically at all.

Unlike the rest of their media organization.

Just sayin

 

[The Rabbi]

How does a post that shows Rasmussen is out of line with other polls prove that Rasmussen is not the most accurate? How do you know Ras is not wrong and the others are not right?

 

[MarcATL]

Typical Rass-myu-son questions...

If Obama took away your guns would you vote for him, yes or no?
If Obama took away your freedom would you vote for him, yes or no?
If Obama wanted more abortion in the country would you vote for him, yes or no?
If Obama was secretly hiding his true nationality as a Kenyan would you vote for him, yes or no?
If Obama was pretending to be a Christian and hiding his true nature as a Muslim would you vote for him, yes or no?
If Obama was secretly plotting to destroy this nation from within like some foreign Manchurian candidate would you be inclined to vote for him, yes or no?

That's the sort of question that leads to the outcomes Rass-myu-son comes up with. Every. single. time.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Rasmussen won't show you who they polled unless you pay.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Rasmussen seems to have a fascinating habit of popping out a bad poll for Obama just when everyone else is showing him doing well.

 

[clevergirl]

Not.


RCP Average..................47/44.4..Obama +2.6

Gallup Tracking ..............48/44....Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking.......44/47....Romney +3
CNN/Opinion Research....49/46....Obama +3
Newsweek/Daily Beast....47/44....Obama +3
Democracy Corps (D)......49/46....Obama +3
FOX News......................45/40....Obama +5
NBC News/WS Journal.....47/44....Obama +3


But I guess FoxNews and the Wall Street Journal are just liberal media propaganda outlets...

You do understand the difference between "LV" and "RV" right? Rasmussen had Obama up last week- I'll bet you liked his polls then-

 

[blackhawk]

Not.


RCP Average..................47/44.4..Obama +2.6

Gallup Tracking ..............48/44....Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking.......44/47....Romney +3
CNN/Opinion Research....49/46....Obama +3
Newsweek/Daily Beast....47/44....Obama +3
Democracy Corps (D)......49/46....Obama +3
FOX News......................45/40....Obama +5
NBC News/WS Journal.....47/44....Obama +3


But I guess FoxNews and the Wall Street Journal are just liberal media propaganda outlets...

Rassmussen is the only pollster that screens for likely voters, over those only registered or just adults who may or may note even be registered.

But I think you already knew that.

Oh all the leftwinger's know this little fact but to quote Al Gore it's a inconvenient truth.

 

[Meister]

Not.


RCP Average..................47/44.4..Obama +2.6

Gallup Tracking ..............48/44....Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking.......44/47....Romney +3
CNN/Opinion Research....49/46....Obama +3
Newsweek/Daily Beast....47/44....Obama +3
Democracy Corps (D)......49/46....Obama +3
FOX News......................45/40....Obama +5
NBC News/WS Journal.....47/44....Obama +3


But I guess FoxNews and the Wall Street Journal are just liberal media propaganda outlets...

I have just one question for you: How do you the others are right and Rasmussen is wrong? Maybe Rasmussen is spot on, I don't know, but either do you with the others.

 

[Vast LWC]

You do understand the difference between "LV" and "RV" right? Rasmussen had Obama up last week- I'll bet you liked his polls then-

Even when Rasmussen "has him up", it's still lower than all the other poling outlets. And that was a daily poll fluke.

It's not about whether Obama is up, i's about who's polling is an outlier.

When Bloomberg was an outlier the other week, I agreed that it was obviously faulty.

 

[Vast LWC]

I have just one question for you: How do you the others are right and Rasmussen is wrong? Maybe Rasmussen is spot on, I don't know, but either do you with the others.

Statistics.

ANd yes, I know, Rasmussen uses "likely voters", blah blah blah...

Of course Rasmussen decides what's "likely" as well as who makes up his polling base.

But it's very interesting how, around election time, Rasmussen's polls suddenly change to fall in line with the rest of the polling.

And which do you think is more likely? All the other polling agencies, some of which have been doing this for over half a century, are suddenly wrong? Or that Scott Rasmussen, and Scott Rasmussen alone, is showing biased data?

Just apply Occam's razor...

 

[The Rabbi]

I have just one question for you: How do you the others are right and Rasmussen is wrong? Maybe Rasmussen is spot on, I don't know, but either do you with the others.

Statistics.

ANd yes, I know, Rasmussen uses "likely voters", blah blah blah...

Of course Rasmussen decides what's "likely" as well as who makes up his polling base.

But it's very interesting how, around election time, Rasmussen's polls suddenly change to fall in line with the rest of the polling.

And which do you think is more likely? All the other polling agencies, some of which have been doing this for over half a century, are suddenly wrong? Or that Scott Rasmussen, and Scott Rasmussen alone, is showing biased data?

Just apply Occam's razor...

Occam's Razor suggests you don't know what the fuck you're talking about, as the most likely explanation for this thread.

 

[Papageorgio]

One things I have learned in over 45 Years of watching this shit. The Polls don't mean a god damn thing, Especially this early in the Race. Anyone can conduct a poll and word it so the out come favors what they want to hear guys.

If you are going to pay attention to polls, look closely at the sample size, Whether it was RV or LV or just adults ect. If they asked Party affiliation on the poll so you can see if it was an even amount or not.

Then Finally still take anything it says with a Grain of Salt.

only one poll is going to matter, that's Election day.

Well, I did say that these polls probably don't mean anything at this point.

I'm with you on that.

I'm just pointing out bias in said meaningless polls

Do we know who the most accurate poll last election was? I thought it was a tie between Rassmussen and another one.

 

[Meister]

I have just one question for you: How do you the others are right and Rasmussen is wrong? Maybe Rasmussen is spot on, I don't know, but either do you with the others.

Statistics.

ANd yes, I know, Rasmussen uses "likely voters", blah blah blah...

Of course Rasmussen decides what's "likely" as well as who makes up his polling base.

But it's very interesting how, around election time, Rasmussen's polls suddenly change to fall in line with the rest of the polling.

And which do you think is more likely? All the other polling agencies, some of which have been doing this for over half a century, are suddenly wrong? Or that Scott Rasmussen, and Scott Rasmussen alone, is showing biased data?

Just apply Occam's razor...

Well, he and like all the others seems to have an agenda, right? So, who knows?

 

[Trajan]

uh huh.."tad" selective aren't we?

were where you when gallup had obama down 5 and ras had him flat in popularity etc?

you do know there is a big difference between expectations results, ala RV and LV sampling this far out from the election....? right?

and please, media polls are not quotable imho, I have always had that stance and said so, here at this forum (too)

last but not least, please post the pollsters with better records say over the last 6 elections, thx in advance.


or how about this-

Rasmussen Reports 6/18 - 6/20 1500 LV 3.0 43 47 Romney +4
Gallup 6/14 - 6/20 3050 RV 2.0 45 47 Romney +2
Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 734 LV 3.6 53 40 Obama +13

any remarks?

Actually, I remember that poll specifically, and I stated at the time that Bloomberg's was a clear outlier.

There was a thread about that a few weeks ago.

Notice there is no Bloomberg poll included here.

As far as past polls go, Rasmussen was tied for sixth among the major pollsters in the 2008 presidential race, so I'm not really sure what you're driving at there...

Uhm no, they were tied for first with Pew...
( notice who's missing? )


1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog

and I asked for the last 6 elections, anyone can be right or place in the top 3 once or twice.




you don't know what I am driving at? here-

you do know there is a big difference between expectations results, ala RV and LV sampling this far out from the election....? right?

Do I need to explain this to you? LV vs. RV vs. A sampling etc...?

and? this needs explaining to?

were where you when gallup had obama down 5 and ras had him flat in popularity etc?

seriously?


and media polls imho are not dependable, I don't care who they are fox, wall st/nbc, AP, UPS, whomever, they do not do this for a living, their bread and butter doesn't depend on it as this is not their lively hood.

Gallup Pew and Ras are the top 3 over the years. Gallup and Ras are the only 2 which carry the 3 day tracking....

there no bloomberg becasue their poll is to old.

 

[Liability]

Shouldn't the incumbent be walking away with this one considering how he has accomplished so much -- AS promised?

I mean, the fact that the SEAS stopped rising ALONE should make him unbeatable.

But yet -- he's floundering.

 

[Trajan]

Rasmussen won't show you who they polled unless you pay.

annnnnnnnnnnnnnnd?

 

[Trajan]

I have just one question for you: How do you the others are right and Rasmussen is wrong? Maybe Rasmussen is spot on, I don't know, but either do you with the others.

Statistics.

ANd yes, I know, Rasmussen uses "likely voters", blah blah blah...

Of course Rasmussen decides what's "likely" as well as who makes up his polling base.

But it's very interesting how, around election time, Rasmussen's polls suddenly change to fall in line with the rest of the polling.

can you substantiate that please?