Scott Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster in the business

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Vast LWC, Jul 5, 2012.

  1. Vast LWC
    Offline

    Vast LWC <-Mohammed

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2009
    Messages:
    10,390
    Thanks Received:
    871
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    New York
    Ratings:
    +871
    Not.


    RCP Average..................47/44.4..Obama +2.6

    Gallup Tracking ..............48/44....Obama +4
    Rasmussen Tracking.......44/47....Romney +3
    CNN/Opinion Research....49/46....Obama +3
    Newsweek/Daily Beast....47/44....Obama +3
    Democracy Corps (D)......49/46....Obama +3
    FOX News......................45/40....Obama +5
    NBC News/WS Journal.....47/44....Obama +3


    But I guess FoxNews and the Wall Street Journal are just liberal media propaganda outlets...
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 3
  2. tjvh
    Offline

    tjvh Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2012
    Messages:
    6,893
    Thanks Received:
    915
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings:
    +915
    A Poll didn't go your way? Sniffle... sniffle...[​IMG]
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  3. Vast LWC
    Offline

    Vast LWC <-Mohammed

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2009
    Messages:
    10,390
    Thanks Received:
    871
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    New York
    Ratings:
    +871
    If you cast out the outlier, Obama is up by 3.5%

    Of course, none of this really means much at this point in the game.

    I just think it's fun to point out how much of an outlier Rasmussen is, as he is just about all the time.
     
  4. Vast LWC
    Offline

    Vast LWC <-Mohammed

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2009
    Messages:
    10,390
    Thanks Received:
    871
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    New York
    Ratings:
    +871
    Don't much really care.

    The point is for all the posters that claim Rasmussen is "the most accurate", as was made clear in the title of the thread.
     
  5. bodecea
    Offline

    bodecea Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2009
    Messages:
    58,414
    Thanks Received:
    5,019
    Trophy Points:
    245
    Location:
    Not in a Third World State
    Ratings:
    +5,755
    A poll of the polls. Clever. :lol:
     
  6. Oddball
    Offline

    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2009
    Messages:
    41,428
    Thanks Received:
    8,390
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Drinking wine, eating cheese, catching rays
    Ratings:
    +8,395
    Rassmussen is the only pollster that screens for likely voters, over those only registered or just adults who may or may note even be registered.

    But I think you already knew that.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  7. Trajan
    Offline

    Trajan conscientia mille testes Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2010
    Messages:
    29,050
    Thanks Received:
    4,749
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    The Bay Area Soviet
    Ratings:
    +4,749
    uh huh.."tad" selective aren't we?

    were where you when gallup had obama down 5 and ras had him flat in popularity etc?

    you do know there is a big difference between expectations results, ala RV and LV sampling this far out from the election....? right?

    and please, media polls are not quotable imho, I have always had that stance and said so, here at this forum (too)

    last but not least, please post the pollsters with better records say over the last 6 elections, thx in advance.


    or how about this-

    Rasmussen Reports 6/18 - 6/20 1500 LV 3.0 43 47 Romney +4
    Gallup 6/14 - 6/20 3050 RV 2.0 45 47 Romney +2
    Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 734 LV 3.6 53 40 Obama +13

    any remarks?
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  8. Lakhota
    Offline

    Lakhota Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2011
    Messages:
    26,581
    Thanks Received:
    1,480
    Trophy Points:
    175
    Location:
    Native America
    Ratings:
    +1,965
    Must be a good thread since two wingnut mods are grinding on it.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 2
  9. Charles_Main
    Offline

    Charles_Main AR15 Owner

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2008
    Messages:
    16,692
    Thanks Received:
    2,234
    Trophy Points:
    88
    Location:
    Michigan, USA
    Ratings:
    +2,246
    One things I have learned in over 45 Years of watching this shit. The Polls don't mean a god damn thing, Especially this early in the Race. Anyone can conduct a poll and word it so the out come favors what they want to hear guys.

    If you are going to pay attention to polls, look closely at the sample size, Whether it was RV or LV or just adults ect. If they asked Party affiliation on the poll so you can see if it was an even amount or not.

    Then Finally still take anything it says with a Grain of Salt.

    only one poll is going to matter, that's Election day.
     
  10. Lakhota
    Offline

    Lakhota Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2011
    Messages:
    26,581
    Thanks Received:
    1,480
    Trophy Points:
    175
    Location:
    Native America
    Ratings:
    +1,965
    Polls are very important - especially to candidates who must allocate campaign resources.
     
  11. signelect
    Offline

    signelect BANNED

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2010
    Messages:
    1,863
    Thanks Received:
    216
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Houston, TX
    Ratings:
    +216
    A lot is going to happen between now and NOvember and anhy big event can swing the poll up or down but even the polsters have to make a living so why not start the predictions now..
     
  12. healthmyths
    Offline

    healthmyths Gold Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2011
    Messages:
    9,792
    Thanks Received:
    980
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Ratings:
    +1,099
    I haven't taken the time to look at all the pollsters you mentioned but I did look at CBS/News poll regarding how many democrats versus GOP make up the polls.

    BUT the NYT has found the following called "house effects"..

    $20fivethirtyeight-poll-graf-custom1.png

    Calculating 'House Effects' of Polling Firms - NYTimes.com
     
  13. JoeNormal
    Offline

    JoeNormal VIP Member

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2012
    Messages:
    1,512
    Thanks Received:
    88
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings:
    +105
    How is Romney supposed to know which way to filp flop without polls?
     
  14. Trajan
    Offline

    Trajan conscientia mille testes Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2010
    Messages:
    29,050
    Thanks Received:
    4,749
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    The Bay Area Soviet
    Ratings:
    +4,749
    *shrugs* the sampling is modeled on past turn out as well.

    I don't use/pay attention to ANY media polls. I can paste at least4 polls off the top of my head that had over sampling of one party in particular.

    example- the one I posted above;


    Rasmussen Reports 6/18 - 6/20 1500 LV 3.0 43 47 Romney +4
    Gallup 6/14 - 6/20 3050 RV 2.0 45 47 Romney +2
    Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 734 LV 3.6 53 40 Obama +13


    +13 vs. +2 and 4 the other way? thats a 15 and 17 point difference, Bloomberg was smoking some serious shit....


    Nate er himself wrote a treatise on polling measurements; Anonymous, vs L Likely and R Registered measurements and why LV is better farther off from the election, while RV better closer in, with Anonymous as the least dependable usually.
     
  15. Listening
    Offline

    Listening Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2011
    Messages:
    13,205
    Thanks Received:
    1,427
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Ratings:
    +1,541
    Your thread title is correct. I'll take you at that.

    From this thread, you can see Black Label and Lakhota still are not tired of licking each others balls.
     
  16. Black_Label
    Offline

    Black_Label Registered Democrat

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2012
    Messages:
    6,306
    Thanks Received:
    507
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings:
    +507
    This is the first time I'm posting in this thread moron. :cuckoo:
     
  17. AquaAthena
    Offline

    AquaAthena Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2010
    Messages:
    14,040
    Thanks Received:
    9,924
    Trophy Points:
    670
    Location:
    ♥ TEXAS ♥ in Spirit
    Ratings:
    +10,345

    Yes, those "in the know" do realize and accept that....:D
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  18. Listening
    Offline

    Listening Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2011
    Messages:
    13,205
    Thanks Received:
    1,427
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Ratings:
    +1,541
    You thanked at least on of his moronic posts and he is about to come all over yours (on other threads).

    You two enjoy each other.....with a wingman like that.....
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  19. SniperFire
    Offline

    SniperFire Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2012
    Messages:
    13,627
    Thanks Received:
    1,215
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Inside Your Head
    Ratings:
    +1,215
    Barry is in deep, deep .. Obama.
     
  20. Vast LWC
    Offline

    Vast LWC <-Mohammed

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2009
    Messages:
    10,390
    Thanks Received:
    871
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    New York
    Ratings:
    +871
    Well, I did say that these polls probably don't mean anything at this point.

    I'm with you on that.

    I'm just pointing out bias in said meaningless polls :)
     

Share This Page