Scott Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster in the business

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Vast LWC, Jul 5, 2012.

  1. Vast LWC
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    Vast LWC <-Mohammed

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    Not.


    RCP Average..................47/44.4..Obama +2.6

    Gallup Tracking ..............48/44....Obama +4
    Rasmussen Tracking.......44/47....Romney +3
    CNN/Opinion Research....49/46....Obama +3
    Newsweek/Daily Beast....47/44....Obama +3
    Democracy Corps (D)......49/46....Obama +3
    FOX News......................45/40....Obama +5
    NBC News/WS Journal.....47/44....Obama +3


    But I guess FoxNews and the Wall Street Journal are just liberal media propaganda outlets...
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  2. tjvh
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    tjvh Senior Member

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    A Poll didn't go your way? Sniffle... sniffle...[​IMG]
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  3. Vast LWC
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    Vast LWC <-Mohammed

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    If you cast out the outlier, Obama is up by 3.5%

    Of course, none of this really means much at this point in the game.

    I just think it's fun to point out how much of an outlier Rasmussen is, as he is just about all the time.
  4. Vast LWC
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    Vast LWC <-Mohammed

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    Don't much really care.

    The point is for all the posters that claim Rasmussen is "the most accurate", as was made clear in the title of the thread.
  5. bodecea
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    bodecea VIP Member

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    A poll of the polls. Clever. :lol:
  6. Oddball
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    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

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    Rassmussen is the only pollster that screens for likely voters, over those only registered or just adults who may or may note even be registered.

    But I think you already knew that.
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  7. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes Staff Member

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    uh huh.."tad" selective aren't we?

    were where you when gallup had obama down 5 and ras had him flat in popularity etc?

    you do know there is a big difference between expectations results, ala RV and LV sampling this far out from the election....? right?

    and please, media polls are not quotable imho, I have always had that stance and said so, here at this forum (too)

    last but not least, please post the pollsters with better records say over the last 6 elections, thx in advance.


    or how about this-

    Rasmussen Reports 6/18 - 6/20 1500 LV 3.0 43 47 Romney +4
    Gallup 6/14 - 6/20 3050 RV 2.0 45 47 Romney +2
    Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 734 LV 3.6 53 40 Obama +13

    any remarks?
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  8. Lakhota
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    Lakhota Gold Member

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    Must be a good thread since two wingnut mods are grinding on it.
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  9. Charles_Main
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    Charles_Main AR15 Owner

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    One things I have learned in over 45 Years of watching this shit. The Polls don't mean a god damn thing, Especially this early in the Race. Anyone can conduct a poll and word it so the out come favors what they want to hear guys.

    If you are going to pay attention to polls, look closely at the sample size, Whether it was RV or LV or just adults ect. If they asked Party affiliation on the poll so you can see if it was an even amount or not.

    Then Finally still take anything it says with a Grain of Salt.

    only one poll is going to matter, that's Election day.
  10. Lakhota
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    Lakhota Gold Member

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    Polls are very important - especially to candidates who must allocate campaign resources.
  11. signelect
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    signelect BANNED

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    A lot is going to happen between now and NOvember and anhy big event can swing the poll up or down but even the polsters have to make a living so why not start the predictions now..
  12. healthmyths
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    healthmyths VIP Member Supporting Member

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    I haven't taken the time to look at all the pollsters you mentioned but I did look at CBS/News poll regarding how many democrats versus GOP make up the polls.

    BUT the NYT has found the following called "house effects"..

    $20fivethirtyeight-poll-graf-custom1.png

    Calculating 'House Effects' of Polling Firms - NYTimes.com
  13. JoeNormal
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    JoeNormal Senior Member

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    How is Romney supposed to know which way to filp flop without polls?
  14. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes Staff Member

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    *shrugs* the sampling is modeled on past turn out as well.

    I don't use/pay attention to ANY media polls. I can paste at least4 polls off the top of my head that had over sampling of one party in particular.

    example- the one I posted above;


    Rasmussen Reports 6/18 - 6/20 1500 LV 3.0 43 47 Romney +4
    Gallup 6/14 - 6/20 3050 RV 2.0 45 47 Romney +2
    Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 734 LV 3.6 53 40 Obama +13


    +13 vs. +2 and 4 the other way? thats a 15 and 17 point difference, Bloomberg was smoking some serious shit....


    Nate er himself wrote a treatise on polling measurements; Anonymous, vs L Likely and R Registered measurements and why LV is better farther off from the election, while RV better closer in, with Anonymous as the least dependable usually.
  15. Listening
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    Listening Gold Member

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    Your thread title is correct. I'll take you at that.

    From this thread, you can see Black Label and Lakhota still are not tired of licking each others balls.
  16. Black_Label
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    Black_Label Registered Democrat

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    This is the first time I'm posting in this thread moron. :cuckoo:
  17. AquaAthena
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    AquaAthena Sweet Liberty

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    Yes, those "in the know" do realize and accept that....:D
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  18. Listening
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    Listening Gold Member

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    You thanked at least on of his moronic posts and he is about to come all over yours (on other threads).

    You two enjoy each other.....with a wingman like that.....
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  19. SniperFire
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    SniperFire Senior Member

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    Barry is in deep, deep .. Obama.
  20. Vast LWC
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    Vast LWC <-Mohammed

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    Well, I did say that these polls probably don't mean anything at this point.

    I'm with you on that.

    I'm just pointing out bias in said meaningless polls :)

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