Baseball and politics are surprisingly similar....both have winners and losers, and, in both, everyone have a strong opinion.
Often lots of opinions.
But for a small fraction of us, we look for data, facts, and testable conclusions.
So, both baseball and politics enter the realm of science.
Robert Adair's application of quantification adds that overlay.
1.The speed at which a player throws the ball is not easy to come by for most positions, except for pitchers. From pitcher stats, we know that the difference in velocity of the fast ball can vary more than 10% between pitchers, with the best having a pitch that crosses the plate at about 95 mph. Of course, there are very good pitchers whose fast balls hit no more than 85 mph.
2. Although the "guns" of infielders has less in the way of statistical proof, we can assume that there are similar differences to those of pitchers. In general, a good "gun" is essential for third baseman, catchers, and shortstops. Even so, there is a big difference between good, and very good arms!
3. Say the difference between good, and very good arms is about 5%, where the very good arm released the ball with an initial velocity of 100 mph. Based on that, a ball thrown 135 feet by a shortstop or third baseman, to the first baseman, will take 1.09 seconds.
But, if the initial velocity is 5% less, it will take about 0.06 seconds longer to get to the first baseman's glove. During that time the fastest runners will have covered an extra 2 feet!
4. Here is the breakdown of the throw itself:
it takes about 0.9 seconds from the time the ball gets to the fielders glove to the beginning of his throw;
it takes about 0.10 second to throw the ball for all players.
So...if he can speed up his throw by 0.06 of a second with a quick release, he may be able to cut the deficit between a great arm and a good arm.
5. Timing is more critical for the double play. Start with the time for a speedster like Carl Lewis, who could cover the 90 feet from first to second in 3.5 seconds. Or...stealing bases, the 78 feet (assuming a lead of 12 feet) in 3.17 seconds.
OK...not fair: in baseball spikes and baseball uniform, we'll agree to the runner being 10% slower.
a. But- every three feet of lead is worth one-tenth of a second, and a rolling start gives him another half second. Of course, the pitcher is watching which foot he has his weight on...
6. Now, the pitcher:
delivery to the catcher's mitt takes about 0.45 seconds for a fast ball; add 0.03 seconds if the pitch is a slider (give the base runner an extra foot!); add 0.13 for a curve ball, and give that runner four feet!
a. With a runner on base, the pitcher is throwing from the stretch. We calculate the pitcher's throwing motion from the point where he can no longer stop, at about 0.8 seconds. This makes the time from stretch to catcher about 1.3 seconds. At best! Some pitchers are as much as 0.2 seconds slower....giving the runner six running feet!
7. If the catcher has a great gun, 100 mph initial velocity, the ball will cover the 128 feet to second base about 1.0 second after release. But add to this the throwing time the catcher needs.
a. So...pitcher throws a fast ball to catcher, catcher to second baseman, low and on the first base side of the bag, 1.3 + 2.0 = 3.3 seconds. Prefect play! Runner out!
8. But...fast runner, plus a good start (worth about 0.2 seconds)...and no one can catch him!
a. Or...if the throw is high, or slightly off....or if the defender has to move, the runner gains another two feet or more.
9. How about second to third steal? Well, the ball gets from the catcher to the third baseman about 0.3 seconds sooner...about ten feet for the runner. He better have a great lead!
10.Of course, the lead itself could depend on whether the pitcher is a lefty or a righty....
From Robert Adair's "The Physics of Baseball."
Yankees open April 1st!
Often lots of opinions.
But for a small fraction of us, we look for data, facts, and testable conclusions.
So, both baseball and politics enter the realm of science.
Robert Adair's application of quantification adds that overlay.
1.The speed at which a player throws the ball is not easy to come by for most positions, except for pitchers. From pitcher stats, we know that the difference in velocity of the fast ball can vary more than 10% between pitchers, with the best having a pitch that crosses the plate at about 95 mph. Of course, there are very good pitchers whose fast balls hit no more than 85 mph.
2. Although the "guns" of infielders has less in the way of statistical proof, we can assume that there are similar differences to those of pitchers. In general, a good "gun" is essential for third baseman, catchers, and shortstops. Even so, there is a big difference between good, and very good arms!
3. Say the difference between good, and very good arms is about 5%, where the very good arm released the ball with an initial velocity of 100 mph. Based on that, a ball thrown 135 feet by a shortstop or third baseman, to the first baseman, will take 1.09 seconds.
But, if the initial velocity is 5% less, it will take about 0.06 seconds longer to get to the first baseman's glove. During that time the fastest runners will have covered an extra 2 feet!
4. Here is the breakdown of the throw itself:
it takes about 0.9 seconds from the time the ball gets to the fielders glove to the beginning of his throw;
it takes about 0.10 second to throw the ball for all players.
So...if he can speed up his throw by 0.06 of a second with a quick release, he may be able to cut the deficit between a great arm and a good arm.
5. Timing is more critical for the double play. Start with the time for a speedster like Carl Lewis, who could cover the 90 feet from first to second in 3.5 seconds. Or...stealing bases, the 78 feet (assuming a lead of 12 feet) in 3.17 seconds.
OK...not fair: in baseball spikes and baseball uniform, we'll agree to the runner being 10% slower.
a. But- every three feet of lead is worth one-tenth of a second, and a rolling start gives him another half second. Of course, the pitcher is watching which foot he has his weight on...
6. Now, the pitcher:
delivery to the catcher's mitt takes about 0.45 seconds for a fast ball; add 0.03 seconds if the pitch is a slider (give the base runner an extra foot!); add 0.13 for a curve ball, and give that runner four feet!
a. With a runner on base, the pitcher is throwing from the stretch. We calculate the pitcher's throwing motion from the point where he can no longer stop, at about 0.8 seconds. This makes the time from stretch to catcher about 1.3 seconds. At best! Some pitchers are as much as 0.2 seconds slower....giving the runner six running feet!
7. If the catcher has a great gun, 100 mph initial velocity, the ball will cover the 128 feet to second base about 1.0 second after release. But add to this the throwing time the catcher needs.
a. So...pitcher throws a fast ball to catcher, catcher to second baseman, low and on the first base side of the bag, 1.3 + 2.0 = 3.3 seconds. Prefect play! Runner out!
8. But...fast runner, plus a good start (worth about 0.2 seconds)...and no one can catch him!
a. Or...if the throw is high, or slightly off....or if the defender has to move, the runner gains another two feet or more.
9. How about second to third steal? Well, the ball gets from the catcher to the third baseman about 0.3 seconds sooner...about ten feet for the runner. He better have a great lead!
10.Of course, the lead itself could depend on whether the pitcher is a lefty or a righty....
From Robert Adair's "The Physics of Baseball."
Yankees open April 1st!
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