Republicans Against Science

[Oddball]

I didn't see your response. If I missed it and you're interested in discussion just show me where it is and I'll retract my statement. I'm just trying to separate the rhetoric from the real discussion. Again, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. At least I'm never misunderstood.

Mike

Here ya go.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/182859-republicans-against-science-10.html#post4077634

I'm always open to learning and discussion. I can't say the same for certain people on this site, from both sides of the political spectrum. Oddball is unfortunately one of these people. He is never wrong and would like you to believe he is an expert on any topic he chimes in about. Rational discussion is just not possible with him hence why it may seem that when myself or others are talking to him that we are being partisan, because that's the only way he knows.

The most true interpretation of the situation as I see it is that there is not a "conspiracy". I think that is incidental but I think that 90% of the scientists are out to prove their point. There are stats on either side that point to that side being correct. Take the carbon outputs estimation.


You have numerous factors which are impossible to measure. We know they are impossible to measure and so we have to estimate what they are. How do we arrive at that number? The simple verion is this:

Total CO2 on the end date - Total CO2 on the first date = Excess CO2.

You have human activity, animals that breathe out CO2, C available in the atmosphere, Plants producing O2, Concentration of atoms necessary to make O2 and CO2 and heat.

We cannot possibly assign a % of input to these (as well as other variables) that is reliable. Not when there are millions and billions of each instance happening simultaneously. To say that we can is a shot in the dark at best.

So how do you do this? You take sample sizes of each occurence. THIS is where the manipulation takes place; intentional or otherwise. The expectation that you are going to arrive at a solid number is vain at best. Most of the research that comes out will be dependant on the specific values you assign in some variation of this model. Yes the statistical models are more complex than this, I know... but they are not likely more accurate than this.

Mike

BINGO!

Give that man a cheroot.

 

[Oddball]

I've listed dozens of scientific societies that speak for tens of thousands of scientist. You've listed a dozen or so individual scientists.

A survey done by the University of Illinois ask two questions of those listed in the American Geological Institute's Directory of Geoscience Departments.

Have mean global temperatures risen compared to pre-1800s levels, and has human activity been a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures?

90% were in agreement with first question and 82% in agreement with the second. Many surveys of scientists have been done by societies and academies all with the same result. The vast majority of scientist agree that the planet is warming and man is a major cause.

As of June 1, 2010 there were 987 scientific research papers about global warming published in society journals, almost all concluding that the planet is warming. Many of the research papers studied mans effect on global warming. The vast majority came to the conclusion that man is a significant cause of global warming.

For many years. scientific research was primary directed at proving the existence of global warming and man's contribution. That's been proven to the satisfaction all major scientific societies and academies. Today research is direct at providing governments and business information they need to plan for the future. Climatologist are working to define better forecasting models and tools. Biologist are working to better understand the effect of temperature changes on man, wildlife, crops, and the oceans.

It is those involve in political science that are the dissenters not the scientist. Just as there is a lot of funding for global warming research, there is much funding aimed at discrediting research and twisting the results for political and economic reasons.

Surveyed scientists agree global warming is real - CNN

IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Scientific consensus on global warming | Environmental Defense Fund

Citing the IPCC (which is mired in internal political chicanery), an environmentalist advocacy group and a shamelessly sensationalizing left-biased media source hardly adds up to bullet-proof sources of credibility, Bubba.

 

[Flopper]

I'm not waying you have to be a climate scientist. Hell I'm not one either but I don't take anything that anyone says at face value. Maybe you're right, in fact its likely that you are right, that there is no conspiracy. But the lack of conspiracy doesn't mean that they are right. That's my point. Can you name a few of the holes in the theory? Can you tell me what doesn't make sense? It is a theory and even the scientists don't proclaim to know everything about the process but most proponents can't name any of the potential flaws.

Mike

I agree, lack of it being a conspiracy doesn't mean they are automatically right. But because their evidence isn't completely fool-proof doesn't mean it's not correct either. And that's part of my point. The most convincing data I've seen as been by people who are working to show that this is an issue through the use of scientific testing. The deniers are looking to pick the data apart in any way possible which they will have you believe negates the entire idea of man made global warming.

There are certainly flaws with any theory until it has time to be thoroughly tested. That right there is certainly one of the issues, time...in the global scheme of things this research is looking at only a small time period (relatively speaking).

Shouldn't we then wait until we know more than we do now before we start implementing insanely expensive "solutions"?

Many of the solutions that are actually being implemented benefit us in many ways other than mitigating global warming. For example, vehicles that use less gasoline reduce pollution in the air and reduce our dependence on foreign oil. The same can be said for lessening our reliance on fossil fuels for power generation.

 

[Oddball]

Many of the solutions that are actually being implemented benefit us in many ways other than mitigating global warming. For example, vehicles that use less gasoline reduce pollution in the air and reduce our dependence on foreign oil. The same can be said for lessening our reliance on fossil fuels for power generation.

When I can fill up my tank or heat my home with empty platitudes and hairy-fairy pipe dreams of "green energy", you come get me.

In the meantime, STFU and get the hell out of the way of people who are trying to sell me things I want to buy.

 

[oreo]

Jon Huntsman Jr., a former Utah governor and ambassador to China, isn’t a serious contender for the Republican presidential nomination. And that’s too bad, because Mr. Hunstman has been willing to say the unsayable about the G.O.P. — namely, that it is becoming the “anti-science party.” This is an enormously important development. And it should terrify us.

Mr. Perry, the governor of Texas, recently made headlines by dismissing evolution as “just a theory,” one that has “got some gaps in it” — an observation that will come as news to the vast majority of biologists. But what really got peoples’ attention was what he said about climate change: “I think there are a substantial number of scientists who have manipulated data so that they will have dollars rolling into their projects. And I think we are seeing almost weekly, or even daily, scientists are coming forward and questioning the original idea that man-made global warming is what is causing the climate to change.”

That’s a remarkable statement — or maybe the right adjective is “vile.”



http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/29/opinion/republicans-against-science.html

GOP is not anti science.
All of us agree that we have climate change.
They question if it is man made. Big difference from being anti science.
Gov. Perry is speaking the truth and this is vile?
Some example of what he stated about scientists;

* Freeman Dyson, Professor Emeritus of the School of Natural Sciences, Institute for Advanced Study; Fellow of the Royal Society:

"First, the computer models are very good at solving the equations of fluid dynamics but very bad at describing the real world. The real world is full of things like clouds and vegetation and soil and dust which the models describe very poorly. Second, we do not know whether the recent changes in climate are on balance doing more harm than good. The strongest warming is in cold places like Greenland. More people die from cold in winter than die from heat in summer. Third, there are many other causes of climate change besides human activities, as we know from studying the past. Fourth, the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is strongly coupled with other carbon reservoirs in the biosphere, vegetation and top-soil, which are as large or larger. It is misleading to consider only the atmosphere and ocean, as the climate models do, and ignore the other reservoirs. Fifth, the biological effects of CO2 in the atmosphere are beneficial, both to food crops and to natural vegetation. The biological effects are better known and probably more important than the climatic effects. Sixth, summing up the other five reasons, the climate of the earth is an immensely complicated system and nobody is close to understanding it."

or this one;

* Richard Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and member of the National Academy of Sciences:

"We are quite confident (1) that global mean temperature is about 0.5 °C higher than it was a century ago; (2) that atmospheric levels of CO2 have risen over the past two centuries; and (3) that CO2 is a greenhouse gas whose increase is likely to warm the earth (one of many, the most important being water vapor and clouds). But – and I cannot stress this enough – we are not in a position to confidently attribute past climate change to CO2 or to forecast what the climate will be in the future."

"There has been no question whatsoever that CO2 is an infrared absorber (i.e., a greenhouse gas – albeit a minor one), and its increase should theoretically contribute to warming. Indeed, if all else were kept equal, the increase in CO2 should have led to somewhat more warming than has been observed."

"It is generally agreed that doubling CO2 alone will cause about 1 °C warming due to the fact that it acts as a ‘blanket.’ Model projections of greater warming absolutely depend on positive feedbacks from water vapor and clouds that will add to the ‘blanket’ – reducing the net cooling of the climate system. ... This, however, is not the case for the actual climate system where the sensitivity is about 0.5 °C for a doubling of CO2."

"Motivated by the observed relation between cloudiness (above the trade wind boundary layer) and high humidity, cloud data for the eastern part of the western Pacific from the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite-5 (which provides high spatial and temporal resolution) have been analyzed, and it has been found that the area of cirrus cloud coverage normalized by a measure of the area of cumulus coverage decreases about 22% per degree Celsius increase in the surface temperature of the cloudy region. ... The calculations show that such a change in the Tropics could lead to a negative feedback in the global climate ... The response to a doubling of CO2, which in the absence of feedbacks is expected to be about 1.2°C, would be reduced to between 0.57° and 0.83°C (depending on y) due to the iris effect."


And all of these scientists;
* Garth Paltridge, Visiting Fellow ANU and retired Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research and retired Director of the Institute of the Antarctic Cooperative Research Centre:

"There are good and straightforward scientific reasons to believe that the burning of fossil fuel and consequent increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide will lead to an increase in the average temperature of the world above that which would otherwise be the case. Whether the increase will be large enough to be noticeable is still an unanswered question." "The bottom line is that virtually all climate research in Australia is funded from one source – namely, the government department which has the specific task of selling to the public the idea that something drastic and expensive has to be done."

* Hendrik Tennekes, retired Director of Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute:

"The blind adherence to the harebrained idea that climate models can generate 'realistic' simulations of climate is the principal reason why I remain a climate skeptic."

"It is my professional opinion that there is no evidence at all for catastrophic global warming. It is likely that global temperatures will rise a little, much as IPCC predicts, but there is a growing body of evidence that the errant behavior of the Sun may cause some cooling in the foreseeable future." "The political dichotomy about climate change is fueled by gross exaggerations and simplifications on both sides of the fence."

* Antonino Zichichi, emeritus professor of nuclear physics at the University of Bologna and president of the World Federation of Scientists:

"Models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are incoherent and invalid from a scientific point of view". "It is not possible to exclude that the observed phenomena may have natural causes. It may be that man has little or nothing to do with it."

"Not only do we need to improve the ‘mathematics’ of the models but it is also necessary to improve the measuring devices and their sensitivity. ... Cloud characteristics are very important in order to allow a comparison between model forecasts and experimental data. ... When a proton enters our atmosphere, it acts as a nucleus of condensation for water vapour and thus contributes to cloud formation. ... In the last half billion years, earth has lost, four times, its polar caps: no ice at the North Pole and none at the South Pole. And, four times, the polar caps were reconstituted. Man did not exist then, only the so-called cosmic rays, discovered by mankind in the early twentieth century. The last cosmic ice age started 50 million years ago when we entered into one of the galaxy arms."

Position: Global warming is primarily caused by natural processes
Attribution of climate change, based on Meehl et al. (2004), which represents the consensus view
1979-2009: Over the past 3 decades, temperature has not correlated with sunspot trends. The top plot is of sunspots, while below is the global atmospheric temperature trend. El Chichón and Pinatubo were volcanoes, while El Niño is part of ocean variability. The effect of greenhouse gas emissions is on top of those fluctuations.
1860-1980: In contrast, earlier there was apparent similarity between trends in terrestrial sea surface temperatures and sunspots (related to solar magnetic activity: TSI varies slightly while UV and indirectly cosmic rays vary somewhat more).
Both consensus and non-consensus scientific views involve multiple climate change influences including solar variability and internal forcings, plus human influences such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use change. However, they can differ in which factor(s) gets considered quantitatively major versus more minor.

Individuals in this section conclude that the observed warming is more likely attributable to natural causes than to human activities.

* Khabibullo Abdusamatov, mathematician and astronomer at Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences:

"Global warming results not from the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but from an unusually high level of solar radiation and a lengthy – almost throughout the last century – growth in its intensity." "Had global temperatures directly responded to concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, they would have risen by at least 0.1 degrees Celsius in the past ten years — however, it never happened."[24] "By 2041, solar activity will reach its minimum according to a 200-year cycle, and a deep cooling period will hit the Earth approximately in 2055-2060. It will last for about 45-65 years and by mid-21st century the planet will face another Little Ice Age.”

* Sallie Baliunas, astronomer, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics:

"Most of the increase in the air's concentration of greenhouse gases from human activities--over 80 percent--occurred after the 1940s. That means that the strong early 20th century warming must be largely, if not entirely, natural.""The coincident changes in the sun's changing energy output and temperature records on earth tend to argue that the sun has driven a major portion of the 20th century temperature change."

"[T]he recent warming trend in the surface temperature record cannot be caused by the increase of human-made greenhouse gases in the air."[26]"One can have surface warming from a variety of reasons. So the key layer of air to look at is the one-to-five-mile up layer of air. ... Now, this is the layer of air sensitive to the human-made warming effect, and the layer that must warm at least as much as the surface according to the computer simulations. Yet, the projected warming from human activities can't be found in the low troposphere in any great degree."

* George V. Chilingar, Professor of Civil and Petroleum Engineering at the University of Southern California:

"The authors identify and describe the following global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate: (1) solar radiation ..., (2) outgassing as a major supplier of gases to the World Ocean and the atmosphere, and, possibly, (3) microbial activities ... . The writers provide quantitative estimates of the scope and extent of their corresponding effects on the Earth’s climate [and] show that the human-induced climatic changes are negligible."

* Ian Clark, hydrogeologist, professor, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa:

"That portion of the scientific community that attributes climate warming to CO2 relies on the hypothesis that increasing CO2, which is in fact a minor greenhouse gas, triggers a much larger water vapour response to warm the atmosphere. This mechanism has never been tested scientifically beyond the mathematical models that predict extensive warming, and are confounded by the complexity of cloud formation – which has a cooling effect. ... We know that [the sun] was responsible for climate change in the past, and so is clearly going to play the lead role in present and future climate change. And interestingly... solar activity has recently begun a downward cycle."

* Chris de Freitas, Associate Professor, School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Science, University of Auckland:

"There is evidence of global warming. ... But warming does not confirm that carbon dioxide is causing it. Climate is always warming or cooling. There are natural variability theories of warming. To support the argument that carbon dioxide is causing it, the evidence would have to distinguish between human-caused and natural warming. This has not been done."

* David Douglass, solid-state physicist, professor, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester:

"The observed pattern of warming, comparing surface and atmospheric temperature trends, does not show the characteristic fingerprint associated with greenhouse warming. The inescapable conclusion is that the human contribution is not significant and that observed increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases make only a negligible contribution to climate warming."

* Don Easterbrook, emeritus professor of geology, Western Washington University:

"Temperatures during most of the last 10,000 years were somewhat higher than at present until about 3,000 years ago. For the past 700 years, the Earth has been coming out of the Little Ice Age and generally warming with alternating warm/cool periods. ... Georef lists 485 papers on the Medieval Warm period and 1413 on the Little Ice Age for a total of 1,900 published papers on the two periods. Thus, when Mann et al. (1998) contended that neither event had happened and that climate had not changed in 1000 years (the infamous hockey stick graph), geologists didn't take them seriously and thought either (1) the trees they used for their climate reconstruction were not climate sensitive, or (2) the data had been inappropriately used."

"Glaciers advanced from about 1890–1920, retreated rapidly from ~1925 to ~1945, readvanced from ~1945 to ~1977, and have been retreating since the present warm cycle began in 1977. ... Because the warming periods in these oscillations occurred well before atmospheric CO2 began to rise rapidly in the 1940s, they could not have been caused by increased atmospheric CO2, and global warming since 1900 could well have happened without any effect of CO2. If the cycles continue as in the past, the current warm cycle should end soon and global temperatures should cool slightly until about 2035, then warm about 0.5°C from ~2035 to ~2065, and cool slightly until 2100."

* William M. Gray, Professor Emeritus and head of The Tropical Meteorology Project, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University:

"This small warming is likely a result of the natural alterations in global ocean currents which are driven by ocean salinity variations. Ocean circulation variations are as yet little understood. Human kind has little or nothing to do with the recent temperature changes. We are not that influential." "I am of the opinion that [global warming] is one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the American people." "So many people have a vested interest in this global-warming thing—all these big labs and research and stuff. The idea is to frighten the public, to get money to study it more."

* William Happer, physicist specializing in optics and spectroscopy, Princeton University:

"All the evidence I see is that the current warming of the climate is just like past warmings. In fact, it's not as much as past warmings yet, and it probably has little to do with carbon dioxide, just like past warmings had little to do with carbon dioxide"

* William Kininmonth, meteorologist, former Australian delegate to World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology:

"There has been a real climate change over the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries that can be attributed to natural phenomena. Natural variability of the climate system has been underestimated by IPCC and has, to now, dominated human influences."

* David Legates, associate professor of geography and director of the Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware:

"About half of the warming during the 20th century occurred prior to the 1940s, and natural variability accounts for all or nearly all of the warming."

"Many records reveal that the 20th century is likely not the warmest nor a uniquely extreme climatic period of the last millennium, although it is clear that human activity has significantly impacted some local environments."

* Tad Murty, oceanographer; adjunct professor, Departments of Civil Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa:

[Global warming] "is the biggest scientific hoax being perpetrated on humanity. There is no global warming due to human anthropogenic activities. The atmosphere hasn’t changed much in 280 million years, and there have always been cycles of warming and cooling. The Cretaceous period was the warmest on earth. You could have grown tomatoes at the North Pole"

* Tim Patterson, paleoclimatologist and Professor of Geology at Carleton University in Canada:

"There is no meaningful correlation between CO2 levels and Earth's temperature over this [geologic] time frame. In fact, when CO2 levels were over ten times higher than they are now, about 450 million years ago, the planet was in the depths of the absolute coldest period in the last half billion years. On the basis of this evidence, how could anyone still believe that the recent relatively small increase in CO2 levels would be the major cause of the past century's modest warming?"

* Ian Plimer, Professor emeritus of Mining Geology, The University of Adelaide:

"Natural climate changes occur unrelated to carbon dioxide contents. We've had many, many times in the recent past where we've rapidly gone into a greenhouse and the carbon dioxide content has been far, far lower than the current carbon dioxide content. It was only 1,100 years ago where Greenland was populated. It was called Greenland because it was green. There were crops, there were cattle there. ... We only have to have one volcano burping and we have changed the whole planetary climate... It looks as if carbon dioxide actually follows climate change rather than drives it".

* Tom Segalstad, head of the Geology Museum at the University of Oslo:

"The IPCC's temperature curve (the so-called 'hockey stick' curve) must be in error, because the Medieval warm period (the "Climate Optimum") and the Little Ice Age both are absent from their curve, on which the IPCC bases its future projections and recommended mitigation. All measurements of solar luminosity and 14C isotopes show that there is at present an increasing solar radiation which gives a warmer climate (Willson, R.C & Hudson, H.S. 1991: The Sun's luminosity over a complete solar cycle. Nature 351, 42-44; and Coffey, H.E., Erwin, E.H. & Hanchett, C.D.: Solar databases for global change models. NOAA/NESDIS/NGDC-STP,Boulder - Solar Databases for Global Change Models). Warmer climate was previously perceived as an optimum climate and not catastrophic. ... On a wet basis the Earth's atmosphere consists by mass of ~73.5% nitrogen, ~22.5% oxygen, ~2.7% water, and ~1.25% argon. CO2 in air is in minimal amount, ~0.05% by mass, and with minimal capacity (~2%) to influence the "Greenhouse Effect" compared to water vapor"

* Nicola Scafetta, research scientist in the physics department at Duke University, wrote a booklet proposing a phenomenological theory of climate change based on the physical properties of the data. Scafetta describes his conclusions writing:

"At least 60% of the warming of the Earth observed since 1970 appears to be induced by natural cycles which are present in the solar system. A climatic stabilization or cooling until 2030–2040 is forecast by the phenomenological model."

* Nir Shaviv, astrophysicist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem:

"[T]he truth is probably somewhere in between [the common view and that of skeptics], with natural causes probably being more important over the past century, whereas anthropogenic causes will probably be more dominant over the next century. ... [A]bout 2/3's (give or take a third or so) of the warming [over the past century] should be attributed to increased solar activity and the remaining to anthropogenic causes."

"The climatic variability attributable to solar activity is larger than could be expected from the typical 0.1% changes in the solar irradiance observed over the decadal to centennial time scale [Beer et al., 2000; Soon et al., 2000]. ... Over the solar cycle, the interplanetary magnetic field varies considerably, such that the amount of tropospheric ionization changes by typically 5%. Svensmark [1998, 2000], Marsh and Svensmark [2000a] as well as Palle Bago and Butler [2000] have shown that the variations in the amount of low altitude cloud cover (LACC) nicely correlate with the cosmic ray flux (CRF) reaching Earth over two decades. A recent analysis has shown that the latitudinal variations of the LACC are proportional to the latitudinal dependence of the low altitude ion concentrations [Usoskin et al., 2004]."

"Recent theoretical and experimental studies (Dickenson, 1975; Harrison and Aplin, 2001; Eichkorn et al., 2002; Yu, 2002; Tinsley and Yu, 2003) relate the CRF to the formation of charged aerosols, which could serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), as demonstrated independently by ground-based and airborne experiments (Harrison and Aplin, 2001; Eichkorn et al., 2002)."

* Fred Singer, Professor emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia:

"The greenhouse effect is real. However, the effect is minute, insignificant, and very difficult to detect."[50][51] “It’s not automatically true that warming is bad, I happen to believe that warming is good, and so do many economists.”

"The current warming cycle is not unusual. ... The Earth consistently goes through a climate cycle marked by alternating warmer and cooler periods over 1,500 years (plus or minus 500 years)." "When the sun is less active, its solar wind weakens and provides less shielding for the Earth from the cosmic rays that bounce around space." "We have a number of shorter-term proxies (cave stalagmites, tree rings from trees both living and buried, boreholes and a wide variety of other temperature proxies) that testify to the global nature of the 1,500- year climate cycles. ... Models that posit a human impact on the climate must better take this evidence into account before any conclusions are drawn regarding humanity’s ability to prevent future climate change."

"The IPCC summary report presents selected facts and omits important information. The summary (correctly) reports that climate has warmed by 0.3 °C to 0.6 °C in the last 100 years, but does not mention that there has been little warming if any (depending on whose compilation is used) in the last 50 years, during which time some 80% of greenhouse gases were added to the atmosphere. ... The summary does not make it explicit that the IPCC time scale for warming has now been stretched out — doubled, in fact, from 2050 to 2100 — making any possible impact less dramatic. The summary also does not mention an authoritative U.S. government statement; it quotes a global warming as low as 0.5 °C by 2100 — only half of the IPCC's lowest 1995 prediction."

* Willie Soon, astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics:

"[T]here's increasingly strong evidence that previous research conclusions, including those of the United Nations and the United States government concerning 20th century warming, may have been biased by underestimation of natural climate variations. The bottom line is that if these variations are indeed proven true, then, yes, natural climate fluctuations could be a dominant factor in the recent warming. In other words, natural factors could be more important than previously assumed."

* Roy Spencer, principal research scientist, University of Alabama in Huntsville:

"I predict that in the coming years, there will be a growing realization among the global warming research community that most of the climate change we have observed is natural, and that mankind’s role is relatively minor".

"It has been calculated theoretically that, if there are no other changes in the climate system, a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration would cause less than 1 deg C of surface warming (about 1 deg. F). This is NOT a controversial statement…it is well understood by climate scientists. (As of 2008, we were about 40% to 45% of the way toward a doubling of atmospheric CO2.) BUT…everything else in the climate system probably WON’T stay the same! For instance, clouds, water vapor, and precipitation systems can all be expected to respond to the warming tendency in some way, which could either amplify or reduce the manmade warming."

"A confusion between forcing and feedback (loosely speaking, cause and effect) when observing cloud behavior has led to the illusion of a sensitive climate system, when in fact our best satellite observations (when carefully and properly interpreted) suggest an IN-sensitive climate system... Finally, if the climate system is insensitive, this means that the extra carbon dioxide we pump into the atmosphere is not enough to cause the observed warming over the last 100 years — some natural mechanism must be involved ... my favorite candidate: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation."

* Philip Stott, professor emeritus of biogeography at the University of London:

"...the myth is starting to implode. ... Serious new research at The Max Planck Society has indicated that the sun is a far more significant factor..."

* Henrik Svensmark, Danish National Space Center:

"Our team ... has discovered that the relatively few cosmic rays that reach sea-level play a big part in the everyday weather. They help to make low-level clouds, which largely regulate the Earth’s surface temperature. During the 20th Century the influx of cosmic rays decreased and the resulting reduction of cloudiness allowed the world to warm up. ... most of the warming during the 20th Century can be explained by a reduction in low cloud cover."

We find that the observed variation of 3–4% of the global cloud cover during the recent solar cycle is strongly correlated with the cosmic ray flux. ... The effect is larger at higher latitudes in agreement with the shielding effect of the Earth's magnetic field on high-energy charged particles.

Variations in the cosmic-ray influx due to solar magnetic activity account well for climatic fluctuations on decadal, centennial and millennial timescales ... to reconcile abundant indications of the Sun's influence on climate (e.g. Herschel 1801, Eddy 1976, Friis-Christenen 1997) with the small 0.1% variations in the solar cycle measured by satellites. ... The connection offers a mechanism for solar-driven climate change much more powerful than changes in solar irradiance.

* Jan Veizer, environmental geochemist, Professor Emeritus from University of Ottawa:

"At this stage, two scenarios of potential human impact on climate appear feasible: (1) the standard IPCC model ..., and (2) the alternative model that argues for celestial phenomena as the principal climate driver. ... Models and empirical observations are both indispensable tools of science, yet when discrepancies arise, observations should carry greater weight than theory. If so, the multitude of empirical observations favours celestial phenomena as the most important driver of terrestrial climate on most time scales, but time will be the final judge."

Position: Cause of global warming is unknown

Scientists in this section conclude that no principal cause can be ascribed to the observed rising temperatures, whether man-made or natural.

* Syun-Ichi Akasofu, retired professor of geophysics and Founding Director of the International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska Fairbanks:

"[T]he method of study adopted by the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is fundamentally flawed, resulting in a baseless conclusion: Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Contrary to this statement ..., there is so far no definitive evidence that 'most' of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect. ... [The IPCC] should have recognized that the range of observed natural changes should not be ignored, and thus their conclusion should be very tentative. The term 'most' in their conclusion is baseless."

* Claude Allègre, geochemist, Institute of Geophysics (Paris):

"The increase in the CO2 content of the atmosphere is an observed fact and mankind is most certainly responsible. In the long term, this increase will without doubt become harmful, but its exact role in the climate is less clear. Various parameters appear more important than CO2. Consider the water cycle and formation of various types of clouds, and the complex effects of industrial or agricultural dust. Or fluctuations of the intensity of the solar radiation on annual and century scale, which seem better correlated with heating effects than the variations of CO2 content."

* Robert C. Balling, Jr., a professor of geography at Arizona State University:

"t is very likely that the recent upward trend [in global surface temperature] is very real and that the upward signal is greater than any noise introduced from uncertainties in the record. However, the general error is most likely to be in the warming direction, with a maximum possible (though unlikely) value of 0.3 °C. ... At this moment in time we know only that: (1) Global surface temperatures have risen in recent decades. (2) Mid-tropospheric temperatures have warmed little over the same period. (3) This difference is not consistent with predictions from numerical climate models."

* John Christy, professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, contributor to several IPCC reports:

"I'm sure the majority (but not all) of my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate models (useful but never "proof") and the coincidence that changes in carbon dioxide and global temperatures have loose similarity over time."

"The global atmospheric temperature anomalies of Earth reached a maximum in 1998 which has not been exceeded during the subsequent 10 years. ... El Niño/La Niña effects in the tropical band are shown to explain the 1998 maximum while variations in the background of the global anomalies largely come from climate effects in the northern extratropics. These effects do not have the signature associated with CO2 climate forcing. However, the data show a small underlying positive trend that is consistent with CO2 climate forcing with no-feedback. ... The global warming hypothesis states that there are positive feedback processes leading to gains g that are larger than 1, perhaps as large as 3 or 4. However, recent studies suggest that the values of g is much smaller."

* Petr Chylek, Space and Remote Sensing Sciences researcher, Los Alamos National Laboratory:

"Carbon dioxide should not be considered as a dominant force behind the current warming...how much of the [temperature] increase can be ascribed to CO2, to changes in solar activity, or to the natural variability of climate is uncertain"

* David Deming, geology professor at the University of Oklahoma:

"The amount of climatic warming that has taken place in the past 150 years is poorly constrained, and its cause – human or natural – is unknown. There is no sound scientific basis for predicting future climate change with any degree of certainty. If the climate does warm, it is likely to be beneficial to humanity rather than harmful. In my opinion, it would be foolish to establish national energy policy on the basis of misinformation and irrational hysteria."

Position: Global warming will have few negative consequences

Scientists in this section conclude that projected rising temperatures will be of little impact or a net positive for human society and/or the Earth's environment.

* Craig D. Idso, faculty researcher, Office of Climatology, Arizona State University and founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change:

"The rising CO2 content of the air should boost global plant productivity dramatically, enabling humanity to increase food, fiber and timber production and thereby continue to feed, clothe, and provide shelter for their still-increasing numbers ... this atmospheric CO2-derived blessing is as sure as death and taxes." (May 2007)[68] "On average, a 300-ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 leads to yield increases of 15% for CAM crops, 49% for C3 cereals, 20% for C4 cereals, 24% for fruits and melons, 44% for legumes, 48% for roots and tubers and 37% for vegetables."

[There was not] "a single coherent area within the SCPDSI maps that 'showed a statistically significant trend over the 1901-2002 period,' once again demonstrating that one of the major calamitous predictions of the world’s climate alarmists (that more dramatic droughts accompany global warming) is found to be totally unsupported by real-world data over a vast area of North America."

* Sherwood Idso, former research physicist, USDA Water Conservation Laboratory, and adjunct professor, Arizona State University:

"Warming has been shown to positively impact human health, while atmospheric CO2 enrichment has been shown to enhance the health-promoting properties of the food we eat, as well as stimulate the production of more of it. ... [W]e have nothing to fear from increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and global warming." (2003)

"If strong positive feedbacks existed, the Earth would likely exhibit a radically unstable climate, significantly different from what has characterized the planet over the eons... Ramanathan & Collins, by the use of their own natural experiments, have shown how the warming-induced production of high-level clouds over the equatorial oceans totally nullifies the greenhouse effect of water vapor there, with high clouds dramatically increasing from close to 0% coverage at sea surface temperatures of 26°C to fully 30% coverage at 29°C... And in describing the implications of this strong negative feedback mechanism, Ramanathan & Collins state that ‘it would take more than an order-of-magnitude increase in atmospheric CO2 to increase the maximum sea surface temperature by a few degrees.

" The warming of the last hundred years is seen to be basically a recovery from the global chill of the Little Ice Age, which was a several-hundred-year period of significantly cooler temperatures than those of the present that persisted until the end of the nineteenth century."

* Patrick Michaels, Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and retired research professor of environmental science at the University of Virginia:

"Scientists know quite precisely how much the planet will warm in the foreseeable future, a modest three-quarters of a degree (Celsius), plus or minus a mere quarter-degree ... a modest warming is a likely benefit... human warming will be strongest and most obvious in very cold and dry air, such as in Siberia and northwestern North America in the dead of winter." (October 16, 2003)

"One way to project the future with confidence is to look to history, when it was warmer... There is very strong evidence that the integrated warming – that’s temperature times time – was much greater for millennia after the end of the recent ice age around 10,800 years ago... In those millennia – which are only the blink of a geologist’s eye ago – trees used to grow where there is now only barren tundra. When they died, they were preserved in the acidic bogginess, so we can tell exactly when they were alive with carbon dating. It’s very clear that the forest in Eurasia used to extend all the way to the Arctic Ocean during that warm period... The Arctic Ocean was likely to have been largely ice-free during the summer during much of this time – from 6,000 to 8,000 years ago – as noted by the University of Stockholm’s Martin Jacobsson in a 2010 edition of the scientific journal Quaternary Science Reviews. The Geological Survey of Norway found something similar in 2008. Not only did Greenland’s ice survive – so did the polar bear."

Seems like Gov, Perry is very well informed about this topic Flopper.
And you call it vile?

I've listed dozens of scientific societies that speak for tens of thousands of scientist. You've listed a dozen or so individual scientists.

A survey done by the University of Illinois ask two questions of those listed in the American Geological Institute's Directory of Geoscience Departments.

Have mean global temperatures risen compared to pre-1800s levels, and has human activity been a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures?

90% were in agreement with first question and 82% in agreement with the second. Many surveys of scientists have been done by societies and academies all with the same result. The vast majority of scientist agree that the planet is warming and man is a major cause.

As of June 1, 2010 there were 987 scientific research papers about global warming published in society journals, almost all concluding that the planet is warming. Many of the research papers studied mans effect on global warming. The vast majority came to the conclusion that man is a significant cause of global warming.

For many years. scientific research was primary directed at proving the existence of global warming and man's contribution. That's been proven to the satisfaction all major scientific societies and academies. Today research is direct at providing governments and business information they need to plan for the future. Climatologist are working to define better forecasting models and tools. Biologist are working to better understand the effect of temperature changes on man, wildlife, crops, and the oceans.

It is those involve in political science that are the dissenters not the scientist. Just as there is a lot of funding for global warming research, there is much funding aimed at discrediting research and twisting the results for political and economic reasons.

Surveyed scientists agree global warming is real - CNN

IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Scientific consensus on global warming | Environmental Defense Fund

And then this too!

The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some
places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the
Commerce Department yesterday from Consulafft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports
from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers all point to a radical change in
climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone.
Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far
north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters
showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been
replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at
many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.
Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while
vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far
north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. Within a few
years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make
most coastal cities uninhabitable.

I apologize, I neglected to mention that this report was from
November 2, 1922, as reported by the AP and published in
The Washington Post 88+ years ago_

 

[daveman]

I agree, lack of it being a conspiracy doesn't mean they are automatically right. But because their evidence isn't completely fool-proof doesn't mean it's not correct either. And that's part of my point. The most convincing data I've seen as been by people who are working to show that this is an issue through the use of scientific testing. The deniers are looking to pick the data apart in any way possible which they will have you believe negates the entire idea of man made global warming.

There are certainly flaws with any theory until it has time to be thoroughly tested. That right there is certainly one of the issues, time...in the global scheme of things this research is looking at only a small time period (relatively speaking).

Shouldn't we then wait until we know more than we do now before we start implementing insanely expensive "solutions"?

Many of the solutions that are actually being implemented benefit us in many ways other than mitigating global warming. For example, vehicles that use less gasoline reduce pollution in the air and reduce our dependence on foreign oil. The same can be said for lessening our reliance on fossil fuels for power generation.

Agreed. Now what do you have to say about the idiots who want to legislate coal plants out of service with no means of replacing their lost capacity?

 

[theDoctorisIn]

I'd say a theory that can't explain how life formed where there was no life has a pretty big frickin' hole in it.

The theory of gravity can't explain how life formed either. Does that mean there's a "big frickin' hole in it" too?

Evolution and abiogenesis are two different fields.

But gravity is not used to try and debunk a belief system in something greater than ourselves or what we think we have proven...

I laugh at the evolution 'proofers' just as I laugh at the zealots who spout of 'proof' of God...

The theory of evolution does not disprove 'religion' or 'God' or the belief in something bigger... just as those beliefs do not disprove evolution...

Who is claiming that evolution "proves" there is no god?

Believing in evolution and believing in god are NOT mutually exclusive.

 

[Flopper]

Shouldn't we then wait until we know more than we do now before we start implementing insanely expensive "solutions"?

Many of the solutions that are actually being implemented benefit us in many ways other than mitigating global warming. For example, vehicles that use less gasoline reduce pollution in the air and reduce our dependence on foreign oil. The same can be said for lessening our reliance on fossil fuels for power generation.

Agreed. Now what do you have to say about the idiots who want to legislate coal plants out of service with no means of replacing their lost capacity?

I have not seen any such legislation. However, Utility giant AEP says it will close five coal plants to comply with EPA regs.

Utility giant American Electric Power said Thursday that it will shut down five coal-fired power plants and spend billions of dollars to comply with a series of pending Environmental Protection Agency regulations.

The company’s dramatic plan to comply with the regulations could give Republicans and moderate Democrats ammunition in their ongoing fight against EPA's efforts to impose new regulations aimed at limiting greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants including mercury and arsenic.

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) immediately pounced on AEP's announcement. “This is a perfect example of the EPA implementing rules and regulations without considering the devastating impact they may have on local economies and jobs,” Capito said.

Utility giant AEP says it will close five coal plants to comply with EPA regs - The Hill's E2-Wire

 

[oreo]

Many of the solutions that are actually being implemented benefit us in many ways other than mitigating global warming. For example, vehicles that use less gasoline reduce pollution in the air and reduce our dependence on foreign oil. The same can be said for lessening our reliance on fossil fuels for power generation.

Agreed. Now what do you have to say about the idiots who want to legislate coal plants out of service with no means of replacing their lost capacity?

I have not seen any such legislation. However, Utility giant AEP says it will close five coal plants to comply with EPA regs.

Utility giant American Electric Power said Thursday that it will shut down five coal-fired power plants and spend billions of dollars to comply with a series of pending Environmental Protection Agency regulations.

The company’s dramatic plan to comply with the regulations could give Republicans and moderate Democrats ammunition in their ongoing fight against EPA's efforts to impose new regulations aimed at limiting greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants including mercury and arsenic.

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) immediately pounced on AEP's announcement. “This is a perfect example of the EPA implementing rules and regulations without considering the devastating impact they may have on local economies and jobs,” Capito said.

Utility giant AEP says it will close five coal plants to comply with EPA regs - The Hill's E2-Wire

Holy crap--someone has written their thesis on this board--therefore I have reply to your link--because it's shorter.

The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some
places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the
Commerce Department yesterday from Consulafft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports
from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers all point to a radical change in
climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone.
Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far
north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters
showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been
replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at
many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.
Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while
vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far
north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. Within a few
years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make
most coastal cities uninhabitable.

I apologize, I neglected to mention that this report was from
November 2, 1922, as reported by the AP and published in
The Washington Post 88+ years ago_

 

[Unkotare]

I would like to thank you for exposing yourself

If I had a dime for every time I heard that...

 

[Mr. Shaman]

Republicans Against Science

.....Now have.....

...ALLIES!!!!!

 

[daveman]

Many of the solutions that are actually being implemented benefit us in many ways other than mitigating global warming. For example, vehicles that use less gasoline reduce pollution in the air and reduce our dependence on foreign oil. The same can be said for lessening our reliance on fossil fuels for power generation.

Agreed. Now what do you have to say about the idiots who want to legislate coal plants out of service with no means of replacing their lost capacity?

I have not seen any such legislation. However, Utility giant AEP says it will close five coal plants to comply with EPA regs.

Utility giant American Electric Power said Thursday that it will shut down five coal-fired power plants and spend billions of dollars to comply with a series of pending Environmental Protection Agency regulations.

The company’s dramatic plan to comply with the regulations could give Republicans and moderate Democrats ammunition in their ongoing fight against EPA's efforts to impose new regulations aimed at limiting greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants including mercury and arsenic.

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) immediately pounced on AEP's announcement. “This is a perfect example of the EPA implementing rules and regulations without considering the devastating impact they may have on local economies and jobs,” Capito said.

Utility giant AEP says it will close five coal plants to comply with EPA regs - The Hill's E2-Wire

Audio: Obama Tells SF Chronicle He Will Bankrupt Coal Industry | NewsBusters.org

 

[oreo]

Jon Huntsman Jr., a former Utah governor and ambassador to China, isn’t a serious contender for the Republican presidential nomination. And that’s too bad, because Mr. Hunstman has been willing to say the unsayable about the G.O.P. — namely, that it is becoming the “anti-science party.” This is an enormously important development. And it should terrify us.

Mr. Perry, the governor of Texas, recently made headlines by dismissing evolution as “just a theory,” one that has “got some gaps in it” — an observation that will come as news to the vast majority of biologists. But what really got peoples’ attention was what he said about climate change: “I think there are a substantial number of scientists who have manipulated data so that they will have dollars rolling into their projects. And I think we are seeing almost weekly, or even daily, scientists are coming forward and questioning the original idea that man-made global warming is what is causing the climate to change.”

That’s a remarkable statement — or maybe the right adjective is “vile.”



http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/29/opinion/republicans-against-science.html

And science told us to stop eating eggs 20 years ago--eat more foods with higher carbohydrates--and no fat--and what did that give us? A country that now has a 33% obesity rate--with type two diabetes on the rampage.

 

[Mr. Shaman]

Jon Huntsman Jr., a former Utah governor and ambassador to China, isn’t a serious contender for the Republican presidential nomination. And that’s too bad, because Mr. Hunstman has been willing to say the unsayable about the G.O.P. — namely, that it is becoming the “anti-science party.” This is an enormously important development. And it should terrify us.

It's worse than you think.​

March 29, 2012

"Conservatives, particularly those with college educations, have become dramatically more skeptical of science over the past four decades, according to a study published in the April issue of the American Sociological Review. Fewer than 35 percent of conservatives say they have a "great deal" of trust in the scientific community now, compared to nearly half in 1974."

Ignorance Is Bliss...And Increasingly "conservative"​

.....And, these are the same people who are tryin' to tell everyone-else how to fix our economy.

 

[Mr. Shaman]

I'm a Republican and I never was fond of science. I hated it in high school and took only the required science classes in college.

Not to worry.

Tax-dollars, spent on research, cancel-out your fear o' those.....

...."evil" scientists!!!

​

 

[jtpr312]

Jon Huntsman Jr., a former Utah governor and ambassador to China, isn’t a serious contender for the Republican presidential nomination. And that’s too bad, because Mr. Hunstman has been willing to say the unsayable about the G.O.P. — namely, that it is becoming the “anti-science party.” This is an enormously important development. And it should terrify us.

Mr. Perry, the governor of Texas, recently made headlines by dismissing evolution as “just a theory,” one that has “got some gaps in it” — an observation that will come as news to the vast majority of biologists. But what really got peoples’ attention was what he said about climate change: “I think there are a substantial number of scientists who have manipulated data so that they will have dollars rolling into their projects. And I think we are seeing almost weekly, or even daily, scientists are coming forward and questioning the original idea that man-made global warming is what is causing the climate to change.”That’s a remarkable statement — or maybe the right adjective is “vile.”



http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/29/opinion/republicans-against-science.html

The most fitting adjective would be "truthful".

 

[zakdavis]

I'm a Republican and I never was fond of science. I hated it in high school and took only the required science classes in college.

Not to worry.

Tax-dollars, spent on research, cancel-out your fear o' those.....

...."evil" scientists!!!

​

Because your quote is so big, I'm going to assume you are an asshole.
On another note, Republicans, please stop questioning the benefits of teaching evolution and the natural sciences in the class room, as you are making the rest of the conservative movement look bad and ignint.

Sincerely
Other Conservatives.

 

[sitarro]

You can tell when someone knows jack shit about the topic they are discussing

Until we see the actual first organism that started evolution then it is a theory.

You won't believe in God unless you see him, likewise I won't believe in evolution unless I see "Organism #1".

Have you ever hear of a virus?

Have you ever heard of proof reading your single sentence post? How inconvenient to leave off a d and look like an idiot while trying to be condescending towards half of the country.

As far as evolution........explain a giraffe to me........ how about a duckbill platypus? What did they evolve from and why?

Never mind, you won't have an adequate answer for me.......what's the point?

 

[zakdavis]

Until we see the actual first organism that started evolution then it is a theory.

You won't believe in God unless you see him, likewise I won't believe in evolution unless I see "Organism #1".

Have you ever hear of a virus?

Have you ever heard of proof reading your single sentence post? How inconvenient to leave off a d and look like an idiot while trying to be condescending towards half of the country.

As far as evolution........explain a giraffe to me........ how about a duckbill platypus? What did they evolve from and why?

Never mind, you won't have an adequate answer for me.......what's the point?

A giraffe is an even toed ungulate mammal. Platypus is a monotreme mammal. Bam, get bent.

 

[sitarro]

Have you ever hear of a virus?

Have you ever heard of proof reading your single sentence post? How inconvenient to leave off a d and look like an idiot while trying to be condescending towards half of the country.

As far as evolution........explain a giraffe to me........ how about a duckbill platypus? What did they evolve from and why?

Never mind, you won't have an adequate answer for me.......what's the point?

A giraffe is an even toed ungulate mammal. Platypus is a monotreme mammal. Bam, get bent.

Their purpose ace, why did they evolve into what they are? How was "nature" improved by those two becoming what they are? Why aren't there any giraffes here in North America if eating leaves 16-20 feet above the earth matters? Why are African lions so different from North American lions? Why aren't there any elephants in North or South America and what did they evolve from and why? What is their purpose? What is the purpose of a giant anaconda? Why did they evolve into what they are?
Why have humans evolved so much more than anything in the animal kingdom? Why do we marvel if a chimp can be taught sign language when a dumb shit human child can do the same thing?

This is what really amazes me personally about humans who are suppose to be so evolved........Why can a group of engineers and scientists put a vehicle of research on Mars and be pretty much ignored by the world including the President of the U.S. and yet if a group of imbeciles run back and forth down a wood floored court putting a ball through a hoop more often than other highly paid groups of mindless, tattooed clowns.......they not only get hero status with millions of people but also get invited to the White House by the same President that ignored people with some of the greatest minds we as humans have ever seen.....how is that possible?