McRocket
Gold Member
- Apr 4, 2018
- 5,031
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- #1
'With the US economy firing on all four cylinders heading into the 3rd quarter, largely thanks to the latent effects from Trump's fiscal stimulus, moments ago the BEA reported that in its first estimate of Q3 GDP, the US economy continued to surprise to the upside, growing at an annualized rate of 3.5%, modestly below the second quarter's 4.2% print but above the 3.3% expected.
However, a quick look at the internals reveals some ugly details below the surface.
While Personal consumption was indeed strong, rising 4.0% in Q3 after 3.8% in Q2, the largest increase since Q4 2014, and contributing 2.69% of the bottom line 3.49% GDP print, the main reason why the US economy grew as fast as it did in the third quarter was a build up in inventories, which contributed 2.07%, or 59% of the bottom line number. This was the biggest quarterly inventory stocking since the first quarter of 2015.
All the other components of GDP were ugly, with nonresidential fixed investment, or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property collapsing to just 0.8% in 3Q after rising a blistering 8.7% in the prior quarter. Commenting on this drop, CIBC economist Royce Mendes noes that "business fixed investment showed up only flat on the quarter, possibly a sign that the most potent effects of the tax cuts are now in the rearview mirror."
Here is a breakdown of the less than stellar components:
Q3 GDP Of 3.5% Beats Expectations As Inventories Soar; Trade, Investment Tumble
ALWAYS look past the headlines.
BTW - this brings the average GDP growth under Trump's Presidency (by my calculations) to 2.82%
However, a quick look at the internals reveals some ugly details below the surface.
While Personal consumption was indeed strong, rising 4.0% in Q3 after 3.8% in Q2, the largest increase since Q4 2014, and contributing 2.69% of the bottom line 3.49% GDP print, the main reason why the US economy grew as fast as it did in the third quarter was a build up in inventories, which contributed 2.07%, or 59% of the bottom line number. This was the biggest quarterly inventory stocking since the first quarter of 2015.
All the other components of GDP were ugly, with nonresidential fixed investment, or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property collapsing to just 0.8% in 3Q after rising a blistering 8.7% in the prior quarter. Commenting on this drop, CIBC economist Royce Mendes noes that "business fixed investment showed up only flat on the quarter, possibly a sign that the most potent effects of the tax cuts are now in the rearview mirror."
Here is a breakdown of the less than stellar components:
- Fixed Investment subtracted -0.04% from the bottom line number
- Exports subtracted -0.45% from the bottom line number
- Imports subtracted -1.34% from the bottom line number
Q3 GDP Of 3.5% Beats Expectations As Inventories Soar; Trade, Investment Tumble
ALWAYS look past the headlines.
BTW - this brings the average GDP growth under Trump's Presidency (by my calculations) to 2.82%