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Anatomy of a bounce--Princeton election consortium
October 21st, 2012, 8:00am by Sam Wang
In the wake of his improved debate performance, President Obamas recovery is now apparent. : It is most clear when viewed in terms of the Meta-Analysis of state polls. Over the last four days, the Popular Vote Meta-Margin the amount of swing it would take to create an electoral near-tie has moved by over 1.0%. Today, the Presidents effective lead, using Electoral College mechanisms, is Obama +1.8%. A rapid move like this can continue for a few days as polls catch up with the nations mental state.
But why do national polls continue to look so close, and in about half of cases good for Mitt Romney? To answer that, lets take a look back at the effects of all three debates so far.