Polling round-up, 15-30 September, 2015 (2nd half of September, 2015)

[Statistikhengst]

So, the polling round-up for the first half of September is now completed and the books have been closed on this two-week window, mostly concerning 2016:

Polling round-up, 01-15 September, 2015 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

I did a recap of the polling (there was a ton of it) -which you may find to be very helpful- here:

Polling round-up, 01-15 September, 2015 | Page 2 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum


Here are the links to my politics blog for the next set of polling that should be coming in over these next two weeks:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: DEM Nomination

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: GOP Nomination

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: Presidential D vs. R matchups

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: Senatorial / Gubernatorial

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: fav/unfav, approve/disapprove, other issues

Right now, at the writing of the OP, those links are empty, but they are guaranteed to fill up very quickly.

With the second GOP debate(s) to be held tonight at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California, I suspect very strongly that a ton of polling, including some so-called "snap polling", will be conducted in the next days, starting tonight, following the debate. IMO, to watch will be:

1.) Ben Carson's numbers following this debate.

2.) How Carly Fiorina will do in her first big-table debate. This is her chance to find a way to jump into the top tier. She may well spring well beyond Bush, Cruz, Rubio and Walker, if things go well for her.

3.) Speaking of Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker: can they use the debate to separate themselves from the pack and get out of single digits in polling? In the latest PPP (D) poll of Florida, released yesterday, a high plurality of GOP voters think that both Jeb and Marco, their "favorite sons", should drop out of the race.

4.) Also, it will be interesting to note what happens with Rand Paul. In both of the latest Florida polls for the GOP nomination, from PPP (D) and Gravis (R) respectively, released yesterday, Paul scored ZERO percent. And Paul hails from a Southern state. This is not where he wants to be in Florida polling, to be sure.

On the Democratic side, people will be loooking to see whether or not Vice-President Biden will decide to run, or not. Polling indicates that when you eliminate VP Biden from the mix, Hillary Clinton profits from his absence in polling.

In October, things speed up: there will be a Democratic Nomination debate (13.10.2015, Las Vegas, NV) AND a Republican Nomination debate (28.10.2015, Boulder, CO). With that in mind, I suspect we will see polling suddenly from NV and CO in top of the usual suspects of IA, NH, SC and FL.

So, let's see what the numbers do in the next two weeks. It could get very interesting to watch.

-Stat

 

[Statistikhengst]

Oh, one more note:

I tend to use the European dating system for stuff.

For instance, September 25, 2015, or 9/25/15, becomes 25 September, 2015, or 25.09.2015.

It's because for business reasons, I must use the European system, my excel tables are set up for European dating and it is far easier for me to simply stick with one system. That's all.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Update, 18.09.2015:

the first set of presidential matchups came in, from "Morning Consult", a Republican polling firm:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: Presidential D vs. R matchups

The matchup results are interesting because they should a shift back to Hillary Clinton three of five matchups. Here a screenshot:

The poll also did FAV / UNFAV ratings for all of the candidates.

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: fav/unfav, approve/disapprove, other issues

Here a screenshot:

So did The Economist/YouGov:

The YouGov poll also includes Vice President Biden and Republican James Gilmore in the mix.
One interesting detail is that the FAV/UNFAV for Trump in both polls is absolutely identical, at 39/54, -14. Clinton's on the other hand, is radically different. She is at -1 in the Morning Consult (R) poll, but at -12 here.
In the YouGov poll, four candidates have UNFAVs at 50 or above: Cruz, Bush, Clinton and Trump. The "candidate" with the highest FAV is Biden, at 48. In both polls, Carson has the highest FAV margin.


Three Senatorial polls have come in, from three key senatorial battlegrounds in 2016:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: Senatorial / Gubernatorial

I expect that a huge bevy of national and state polls will be fluttering in by Monday or Tuesday of next week.

 

[Statistikhengst]

This also just came in:

Fiorina TIES Trump 22/22 in first post-Debate No. 2 GOP nomination poll | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

 

[Statistikhengst]

Later today, I will do a recap of the first 10 days or so of polling in this two week cycle, but there have been a lot of polls, to say the least.

Details to follow.

There is no doubt that Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio and so some extent, Ben Carson, profited from the GOP debate no. 2. Jeb Bush is now generally in either 4th or 5th place. This never happened to Mitt Romney in 2011-2012.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Later today, I will do a recap of the first 10 days or so of polling in this two week cycle, but there have been a lot of polls, to say the least.

Details to follow.

There is no doubt that Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio and so some extent, Ben Carson, profited from the GOP debate no. 2. Jeb Bush is now generally in either 4th or 5th place. This never happened to Mitt Romney in 2011-2012.

Correction: I will first get to it on Thursday or Friday - there is just such a huge amount of data and I want to get it all right and I am swamped with work right now.

If you go to the links at the OP, you will see that the polling threads have filled up with reams of interesting information. September has proven to be an interesting month on many levels. Fun to watch.

 

[mamooth]

The political prediction market is interesting. That is, the oddsmakers, the bookies. They're predicting a fight between Bush and Rubio.

2016 President - Republican Nomination | PredictWise
---
Jeb Bush 32%
Marco Rubio 26%
Donald Trump 11%
Carly Fiorina 8%
Ben Carson 6%
Chris Christie 5%
Ted Cruz 3%
John Kasich 3%
Mike Huckabee 2%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Rand Paul 1%

Everyone else is below 1%
---

 

[Statistikhengst]

It's time to close out this thread with a summary of the last 2 weeks of September, 2015.

There was a huge amount of polling data on many fronts.

GOP Nomination - national (15-30.09.2015):

1.) Morning Consult, released 16.09.2015: Trump +16
2.) The Economist/YouGov, released 17.09.2015: Trump +16
3.) Ipsos/Reuters, released 17.09.2015: Trump +17 (among RRV and IRV, R leaning), Trump +21 (among RRV only), and in a three way race, Margin: Trump +9 (among RRV and IRV, R leaning), Trump +13 (among RRV only)
4.) Gravis (R) / OAN, released 18.09.2015: TIE (Trump/Fiorina)
5.) Morning Consult, released 18.09.2015: Trump +24
6.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 20.09.2015: Trump +24.9
7.) NBC/Survey Monkey, released 20.09.2015: Trump +15
8.) Zogby Analytics, released 21.09.2015: Trump +20
9.) Morning Consult, released 21.09.2015: Trump +20
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10.) Fox News, released 23.09.2015: Trump +12
11.) Bloomberg/Selzer, released 24.09.2015: Trump +5
12.) Quinnipiac, released 24.09.2015: Trump +8
13.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 26.09.2015: Trump +14 (All), +12 (GOP RV only), +15 (IRV), and in a three way race, Trump +6 (All), +2 (GOP RV only), +11 (IRV)
14.) NBC/ WSJ poll, released 27.09.2015: Trump +1
15.) Suffolk/USA Today, released 30.09.2015: Trump +10.1
16.) Morning Consult, released 30.09.2015: Trump +15

GOP Nomination - State polling

Arizona:
MBQF Consulting, released 16.09.2015: Trump +8.6

Florida:
Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 22.09.2015: Trump +12.3 (over Rubio)

Georgia:
Landmark Communications / Rosetta Stone, released 26.09.2015: Trump +12.9

Iowa:
PPP (D), released 22.09.2015: Trump +7 (also some theoretical 2-way polling)

Michigan:
Marketing Research Group (MRG), released 16.09.2015: Carson +2

New Hampshire:
WBUR Poll, released 16.09.2015: Trump +4
Voter Gravity (touchtone flash-poll), released 18.09.2015: Fiorina +4
CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 24.09.2015: Trump +10 (over Fiorina)

North Carolina:
Elon University, released 26.09.2015; Trump +0.6 (statistical tie with Carson)
PPP (D), released 29.09.2015: Trump +5 (also some theoretical 2-way polling)

Texas:
Texas Lyceum Poll, released 30.09.2015: Trump +5 (over Cruz)

Utah:
Dan Jones and Associates, released 22.09.2015: Carson +6

In national polling, you can see a huge shift in margin between September week 3 and September week 4, and in each of those weeks, 2 or more pollsters posted essentially the same margin, for instance, Morning Consult, YouGov and Ipsos/Reuters, all with Trump +16/+17 within just one day or so of each other. There is no doubt that Trump's margin, although he is still leading, was greatly reduced in week 4. In state polling, Trump won most of the polling, except in Michigan, one poll in New Hampshire and a poll in Utah. This is the second time in one month that we have seen a poll from Utah, which is a very, very rare occurence.


DEM NOMINATION - National

1.) Morning Consult, released 16.09.2015: Clinton +30
2.) The Economist/YouGov, released 17.09.2015: Clinton +19
3.) Ipsos/Reuters, released 17.09.2015: Clinton +17 (DRV + IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +21 (DRV only), and in a three-way race, Clinton +13 (DRV + IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +18 (DRV only)
4.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 20.09.2015: Clinton +22.2
5.) CNN/ORC, released 21.09.2015: Clinton +18 (with Biden in the mix), Clinton +29 (without Biden)
6.) NBC / Survey Monkey, released 21.09.2015: Clinton +13
7.) Morning Consult, released 21.09.2015: Clinton +21
------------------------------------------------------------------------
8.) Bloomberg/Selzer, released 23.09.2015: Clinton +8
9.) Fox News, released 23.09.2015: Clinton +14
10.) Zogby Analytics, released 23.09.2015; Clinton +26 (with Biden in the mix), Clinton +28 (without Biden)
11.) Quinnipiac, released 24.09.2015: Clinton +18 (with Biden in the mix), Clinton +23 (without Biden)
12.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 26.09.2015: Clinton +9 (ALL), +10 (DRV), TIE (IRV), and in a three-way race, Clinton +7 (ALL), +8 (DRV), +1 (IRV)
13.) NBC/WSJ, released 28.09.2015: Clinton +7 (with Biden in the mix), +15 (without Biden in the mix)
14.) Morning Consult, released 30.09.2015: Clinton +21

DEM nomination - state polling

Florida:
Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 22.09.2015: Clinton +43.6

Iowa:
PPP (D), released 22.09.2015: Clinton +21

Michigan:
Market Research Group - MRG - (R), released 18.09.2015: Clinton +19

New Hampshire:
WBUR poll, released 16.09.2015: Sanders +4
CNN/WMUR, released 24.09.2015: Sanders +16

North Carolina:
Elon University, released 26.09.2015; Clinton +20.4
PPP (D), released 29.09.2015: Clinton +7 (with Biden in the mix), +28 (without Biden in the mix)

Texas:
Texas Lyceum Poll, released 30.09.2015: Clinton +12

Utah:
Dan Jones and Associates, released 22.09.2015: Sanders +6 (over Biden, Clinton in 3rd place)


Similar to the GOP nomination polling at the national level, we also saw a narrowing of the margin for Clinton September week 4 over week 3, but not as much as with Trump and the GOP. In state polling, the two things that stand are are the huge difference in margin in NC with the PPP (D) poll, depending on whether or not Vice-President Biden is in the mix, and also Sander's surprising lead in Utah, of all places.

DEM vs GOP polling, General Election - National:

1.) Morning Consult, released 16.09.2015: 5 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she wins all five, with between +2 to +9
2.) Morning Consult, released 21.09.2015: 5 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she wins all five, with between +4 to +13
3.) Fox News, released 23.09.2015: 1 Clinton vs. Trump matchup, Clinton wins (also a couple of push-poll questions in that poll)
4.) Quinnipiac, released 24.09.2015: 12 D vs. R matchups: Clinton loses 3, wins 1 / Biden ties 1, wins 3 / Sanders loses 2, ties 1, wins 1
5.) NBC/WSJ, released 28.09.2015: 9 D vs. R matchups: Clinton loses 2, wins 2 / Biden wins all 4 / Sanders wins 1


State polling -

Florida:
Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 22.09.2015: 8 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she wins 2, loses 6

Michigan:
Marketing Research Group - MRG - (R), released 18.09.2015: 3 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she loses 2, wins 1
Mitchell Research / Fox 2, released 29.09.2015: 3 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, 1 win, 1 tie, 1 loss

New Hampshire:
CNN / WMUR9, released 28.09.2015: Clinton, Biden and Sanders vs. Trump. All three DEMS win by wide margins.

North Carolina:
Elon University, released 26.09.2015; 3 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she wins 1, loses 2
PPP (D), released 29.09.2015: 16 D vs R matchups, Clinton loses all 8, Biden wins 1, ties 1, loses 2, Sanders loses all 4

Texas:
Texas Lyceum Poll, released 30.09.2015: 6 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she loses 2 and WINS 4, but the toplines for all candidates are low (upper 20s, mid 30s)

Wisconsin:
Marquette Poll, released 29.09.2015: 3 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she wins all three by wide margins.


There was also Senatorial/Gubernatorial polling worth looking at as well.

And the issues, FAV/UNFAV data is also most enlightening. According to WAPO, 83% of Latinos still disapprove of Donald Trump.

Now, those are just the margins, but at the links is a lot more data, often, internal data I thought was worth preserving for posterity.

-Stat