Statistikhengst
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So, the polling round-up for the first half of September is now completed and the books have been closed on this two-week window, mostly concerning 2016:
Polling round-up, 01-15 September, 2015 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
I did a recap of the polling (there was a ton of it) -which you may find to be very helpful- here:
Polling round-up, 01-15 September, 2015 | Page 2 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
Here are the links to my politics blog for the next set of polling that should be coming in over these next two weeks:
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: DEM Nomination
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: GOP Nomination
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: Presidential D vs. R matchups
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: Senatorial / Gubernatorial
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: fav/unfav, approve/disapprove, other issues
Right now, at the writing of the OP, those links are empty, but they are guaranteed to fill up very quickly.
With the second GOP debate(s) to be held tonight at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California, I suspect very strongly that a ton of polling, including some so-called "snap polling", will be conducted in the next days, starting tonight, following the debate. IMO, to watch will be:
1.) Ben Carson's numbers following this debate.
2.) How Carly Fiorina will do in her first big-table debate. This is her chance to find a way to jump into the top tier. She may well spring well beyond Bush, Cruz, Rubio and Walker, if things go well for her.
3.) Speaking of Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker: can they use the debate to separate themselves from the pack and get out of single digits in polling? In the latest PPP (D) poll of Florida, released yesterday, a high plurality of GOP voters think that both Jeb and Marco, their "favorite sons", should drop out of the race.
4.) Also, it will be interesting to note what happens with Rand Paul. In both of the latest Florida polls for the GOP nomination, from PPP (D) and Gravis (R) respectively, released yesterday, Paul scored ZERO percent. And Paul hails from a Southern state. This is not where he wants to be in Florida polling, to be sure.
On the Democratic side, people will be loooking to see whether or not Vice-President Biden will decide to run, or not. Polling indicates that when you eliminate VP Biden from the mix, Hillary Clinton profits from his absence in polling.
In October, things speed up: there will be a Democratic Nomination debate (13.10.2015, Las Vegas, NV) AND a Republican Nomination debate (28.10.2015, Boulder, CO). With that in mind, I suspect we will see polling suddenly from NV and CO in top of the usual suspects of IA, NH, SC and FL.
So, let's see what the numbers do in the next two weeks. It could get very interesting to watch.
-Stat
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