Pentagon says that we would lose a war with China by 2030.

The real problem is that China sees Taiwan's continued independence as just another example of outsiders fucking with their territorial integrity. If Taiwan did something boneheadly stupid like declared independence, they'd get invaded.
So not wanting to be crushed by the most brutal and inhumane great power since nazi germany is “boneheaded?”

As for the issue of outsiders, thats exactly what the people of Taiwan want to be

Outside and away from the CCP

you can rationalize Chinese aggression to yourself just as the world made excuses for hitler

But in the end it still comes around to your own doorstep whether you like it or not
 
I think that is a little optimistic. I suspect that the date is actually, right now.


Part of the problem is that the Navy, and actually the entire Military, suffers from multiple personality disorder. A decade ago it was decided that we had no more use for Frigates. Those small ships that were too small to really operate on their own and were not large enough to project force from the sea inland at all. So all the Frigates were decommissioned. Those little ships are valuable escorts however. They provide a ring of defense around any task force. By getting rid of them, you denude your defensive capability dramatically. It is one less defensive ring to deal with.

The Navy recently realized the enormity of their mistake. They don’t have any Frigates on the drawing board that they can start construction with, and starting from scratch would take years to even begin. So the Navy has just announced that they will be buying Frigates from Italy.


Now the We’re Awesome crowd will scream murder about the awesome F-22 and F-35’s. But what they don’t understand is that quantity is a quality all it’s own. And the quality is able to be matched. In time, surpassed. But as I tried to point out during the early days of the Syrian Misadventure, the Russians and Chinese answer is missiles. A lot of them.

People downplay the Russian answer because it is different than our own. But let’s say you can intercept twenty missiles. What do you do if the enemy shoots 21 at you? Eventually the number of missiles inbound will overwhelm and swamp your defenses. Some are going to get through if the enemy shoots enough of them at you. Then your multiple billion dollar carrier is a new addition to the Bottom of the Ocean.

The only way to do it is sink the enemy ships before they sink yours. But here again, we have a disadvantage. Even Submarines have a limited number of shots on board. And every time they fire, they let the enemy know they are there, and even the stealthiest submarine can be located if the enemy is looking hard enough, and let’s be honest, they’ll be looking awfully hard won’t they?

Quantity has a Quality all it’s own.

The Chinese army has more troops than we have ammunition. They have millions of troops, and infinite space to absorb attacks. They would be close to their lines of supply, and we would be far from ours. Our supply lines would be stretched to the breaking point in days, or a couple weeks maximum. It would take years to build the military we needed to return to the Status Quo Ante, and to defeat China? That would be virtually impossible.

Yes, we have nukes. And they have nukes, and we can turn the Chinese Cities into parking lots that glow in the dark. But what then? They’ll return the favor, turning many of our cities into similar scenes of destruction. We can’t turn the entire country of China into radioactive cinders. And even if we could we would be pariahs in the International World, alone without friends.

So what can we do? First, we can honestly admit that we are vulnerable. Before you can fix the problem, you have to identify it. Second, we can start a realistic examination of our Military from top to bottom. What do we need to do to protect our interests in the real world, instead of the easy one where we always win the war games? Third, we can start realistically examining our military technology. We are getting rid of hundreds of airplanes right now so we can afford a few more F-35’s. Yes, it may be an awesome plane, but if we have too few of them to do the job, what good is it to have a single awesome plane?

We got into this mess sacrificing old but good technology for awesome new. To save money. The Navy has no Fleet Interceptors to replace the decommissioned F-14’s. We got rid of the best Interceptor we ever had, because we could get everyone into one kind of plane, the F/A 18, and then declare it was obsolete so we could buy the F-35.

We abandoned the “unrealistic” scenario of having a Military that could fight two and a half wars. Now we have one that could not really fight even one war. Oh they can bomb the living crap out of some backwards Jihadi in the middle of the Desert. They can do that just fine, but they do not train to fight overwhelming odds, they don’t train and equip to fight enemies who are comparatively equal in training and equipment. They train to fight insurgents and religious nutters. Always with an overwhelming advantage of technology and information.

I doubt we could beat Iran in a stand up fight in all honesty. War Games have been denuded to the enemy doing exactly what you would want them to. If our ships can intercept twenty missiles, the notional enemy obligingly sends ten in the war game. If our troops are capable of fighting numerically inferior troops equipped with a hodgepodge of technology and weapons, the enemy obligingly puts underquipped and ill trained troops in the field, for our war games anyway.

We need to wake up, and we need to realize that just because we scream we’re number one, doesn’t mean we are. We need to realize that the enemy is unlikely to oblige your plans and stand stoically still and let you kill them. They are unlikely to surrender control of the air and sea without costing us a lot in the process, and even then it would be contested.

Wake up folks, or in ten years, we will see America’s military hugging the coast, afraid to venture out into the deep blue ocean because there be Dragons out there.
It helps that the CCP owns the Bidens
 
I see that the Pentagon want more funds in order for them to takeover this country.
these people knows how to play you all like a rag doll.
I wonder which one of you guys is going to buy the condoms for them to screw us all with?




View attachment 508378
The pentagon is like Bezos. A greedy ruthless billionaire. They just can’t get enough stolen money.
 
I’m sorry that our chips cost a little more to make

American workers do not want to work 12 hours a day and live in squalor

So what if your cell phone costs a little more?

In the long run every American is better off

Americans don't live in squalor because chips are cheap.

Americans are losing their middle class lifestyle because the rich are too fucking greedy.
 
So not wanting to be crushed by the most brutal and inhumane great power since nazi germany is “boneheaded?”

As for the issue of outsiders, thats exactly what the people of Taiwan want to be

Outside and away from the CCP

you can rationalize Chinese aggression to yourself just as the world made excuses for hitler

But in the end it still comes around to your own doorstep whether you like it or not

Not at all.

Who live on Taiwan. Chinese people
Who lives in China. Chinese people.

So why is a fight between Chinese people any of our business?
 
I’m sorry that our chips cost a little more to make

American workers do not want to work 12 hours a day and live in squalor

So what if your cell phone costs a little more?

In the long run every American is better off

Americans don't live in squalor because chips are cheap.

Americans are losing their middle class lifestyle because the rich are too fucking greedy.
Oh?

Closing thousands of factories and moving millions of middleclass jobs to china had nothing to do with it?

The political class in washington made that decision
 
So not wanting to be crushed by the most brutal and inhumane great power since nazi germany is “boneheaded?”

As for the issue of outsiders, thats exactly what the people of Taiwan want to be

Outside and away from the CCP

you can rationalize Chinese aggression to yourself just as the world made excuses for hitler

But in the end it still comes around to your own doorstep whether you like it or not

Not at all.

Who live on Taiwan. Chinese people
Who lives in China. Chinese people.

So why is a fight between Chinese people any of our business?
Because communist china is our enemy and democratic Taiwan is our moral and political friend/ally
 
Because communist china is our enemy and democratic Taiwan is our moral and political friend/ally

Um, really? Besides the fact that Taiwan didn't allow free elections until 1988... before that it was a fascist police state under the Kuomintang, we don't even recognize Taiwan as a country, legally.

We recognize it as a province of China.

There's no American Embassy in Taipei.
 
So not wanting to be crushed by the most brutal and inhumane great power since nazi germany is “boneheaded?”

As for the issue of outsiders, thats exactly what the people of Taiwan want to be

Outside and away from the CCP

you can rationalize Chinese aggression to yourself just as the world made excuses for hitler

But in the end it still comes around to your own doorstep whether you like it or not

Not at all.

Who live on Taiwan. Chinese people
Who lives in China. Chinese people.

So why is a fight between Chinese people any of our business?
Because mainland China has neutered all the people of our nation who disagree with them. Ask Lebron and the sports players and the Hollywood people affected and others. And they speak to us on their political soapboxes. They have no idea how the deplorable lives and is the backbone of American survival.
 
Here we are parting ways. If we stand for anything it is self determination. And Taiwan has a functioning Government that is elected by the people in a free election. Moreover we have an understanding to defend them if attacked.

Well, shame on us. It's a stupid thing to fight a war over.

you have to contexualize Taiwan in the context of Chinese History. From the first Opium War until the Communist Revolution, China underwent the "Century of Humiliation", where outside powers came in and had their way with it. They exploited China for its goods and resources and stole their territory, which is why China went from this.

View attachment 508359

to this.

View attachment 508360

So what we see as "aggression" towards Taiwan or Tibet or Hong Kong or the Uyghurs, the Chinese see as restoring their territorial integrity.

But let’s be practical instead of principled. If we don’t defend Taiwan to the utmost we have to basically serve up Asia on a platter for China.

If we don’t fight for Taiwan do we fight for Korea? Isn’t unification an internal matter?

Do we fight for any other nation?

Eventually we will decide we have to fight. And that will lead to us using Nukes. There won’t be an option to remain conventional.

But wouldn't any fight lead to nukes? Do you think that if we step into a fight between Taiwan and China that the Chinese will refrain from using nukes?

If we don’t stand up to defend Taiwan than the Chinese will never believe we will stand with our allies over the Spratley Islands.

If we back down there then everyone will know our support is nonexistent. So what happens next?

Japan goes on a crash course to develop Nukes. Australia starts to deploy nukes. Russia gets nervous because Siberia is a natural resources treasure trove and spins up the nukes.

The only way to avoid the certainty of nuclear war in the future is to insure that everyone knows. We will defend Taiwan. We will side with the Philippines over the Spratley Islands. We will no blink. We will fight and we will not rule out any weapon.

We will sink any ships coming or going to Chinese Ports. We will shoot down any plane if it comes to war. There will be unrestricted warfare.

Yes. It is possible that position will lead to war. It is far more certain appeasement will lead to the same outcome. At least according to History.

Being a man means you stand for your principles. Being a nation means the same thing.

Look. Hitler didn’t believe the French of English that Poland would be a war trigger. They said the same thing before about the Rhineland and Czechoslovakia. And both times they backed down.

Why would he believe them the third time? We know that Hitler was prepared to order the withdrawal from the Demilitarized zones. History tells us that. But his bluff worked. People were more afraid of another war than letting Germany get away with it.

We must stand firm. Or we lose our allies in the region and there will be a nuclear war with near absolute certainty in the near future.
 
Usually, I respect you more than most of the Wingnuts on this board because you are sane. But here's a lot of crazy talk.

If we don’t stand up to defend Taiwan than the Chinese will never believe we will stand with our allies over the Spratley Islands.

If we back down there then everyone will know our support is nonexistent. So what happens next?

Probably nothing.

The thing is, we have no legal basis to get involved in ANY of those disputes. Taiwan is legally part of China. We don't recognize it as an independent country, and any invasion of Taiwan would be an internal Chinese matter as far as the international community is concerned.

For the Spratly Islands... Um. Okay. I mean, it's cute to see all these countries play "Plant the Flag" on little Islands no one actually lives on, but we have no obligation to get involved in a dispute between Vietnam and China over who owns Sand Cay, an Island of about 17 Acres.

The Largest of the Spratlys is Taiping Island, which is claimed by Taiwan (so again, internal Chinese matter) which is a whopping 130 acres. Really? You want to send kids off to die over a 130 acre rock no one lives on because it's so inhospitable.



The only reason anyone cares about the Spratlys is because there might be oil underneath them.

Here's my plan for peace. The Children of Oil Company executives are required to join the miltiary and will be the first deployed to any war zone.

Peace in our time.

Japan goes on a crash course to develop Nukes. Australia starts to deploy nukes. Russia gets nervous because Siberia is a natural resources treasure trove and spins up the nukes.

The only way to avoid the certainty of nuclear war in the future is to insure that everyone knows. We will defend Taiwan. We will side with the Philippines over the Spratley Islands. We will no blink. We will fight and we will not rule out any weapon.

Wouldn't that also lead to nuclear war?

It's very unlikely the Japanese would build nukes, given the whole psychological thing they have against nukes thanks to Hiroshima.

Look. Hitler didn’t believe the French of English that Poland would be a war trigger. They said the same thing before about the Rhineland and Czechoslovakia. And both times they backed down.

I think you fall for the "revisionist view" of the events leading up to WWII.

The Rhineland was German territory. Everyone agreed they had every right to put troops in their own territory.

Austria (you didn't mention it, but I will) was all for the Anschluss because without the Hapsburg Empire, Austria was a basket case, and German nationalism was running rampant. They welcomed annexation by Germany. Austria wasn't Germany's "First victim", it was their "Willing collaborator."

This brings us to Czechoslovakia. Remember, Hitler's only demand on Prague was to give Germany the Sudenland and it's 3 million native Germans, and that's all he got at Munich. Hungary then made demands to get Hungary back, and Slovakia decided it didn't want to be part of Czechoslovakia, either.

Chamberlain realized that the Sudetan Germans, Slovaks and Hungarians weren't keen on fighting for "Czechoslovakia", so why should the UK?

Why would he believe them the third time? We know that Hitler was prepared to order the withdrawal from the Demilitarized zones. History tells us that. But his bluff worked. People were more afraid of another war than letting Germany get away with it.

We must stand firm. Or we lose our allies in the region and there will be a nuclear war with near absolute certainty in the near future.

Actually, you leave a couple of point out. The problem wasn't that Hitler was "bluffing" the west, it was the west was being intransigent.

Germany actually had a legitimate claim to east Prussia and Silesia, regions that were ethnically German but under Polish control. Instead of sitting down and renegotiating Versailles, the French and British wrote the Polish Colonels a "Blank Check", which just encouraged them to be intransigent. Except- of course, Hitler pulled a fast one and signed an agreement with Stalin.

The ugly truth of per-WWII diplomacy, the West was more worried about Stalin encouraging working people to kill their bosses than Hitler maybe grabbing up some German territory. So they turned a blind eye to Hitler hoping to use him as a foil against Stalin.

So the problem here is that China isn't going to invade Vietnam or Siberia or Japan. They tried to invade Vietnam in 1979 and failed miserably.

They do have legitimate territorial concerns, and frankly, that's something we should resolve through diplomacy.
 

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