On computer models

Discussion in 'Environment' started by skookerasbil, Aug 23, 2011.

  1. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Gold Member

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    So.......how many times do we see GW alarmists referring to "computer models" of temperatures out 5......10........20......50 years??

    To them, these models carry with them 100% certitude.........as if there is zero chance of any variability.

    Meanwhile.......lets take a quick look at "computer models" associated with Hurricane Irene.....................

    [​IMG]


    Almost 1,000 miles of variability in its projected track.........and that's only a 48 hour advance projection:funnyface::funnyface::coffee: This is the "science" the AGW alarmist bozo's base their shit on.


    [​IMG]



    And for that, we should go full steam ahead and put millions out of jobs in the conventional energy industries......base it on "computer projections" advocated for by the k00ks..........!!!


    Really???!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:2up:
     
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2011
  2. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    gigo
     
  3. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    A model is no better than the starting data. In a case where the starting data is in flux, the results are going to be all over the board. Weather is chaotic, and that is what the projections are indicating. In this case, honest projections are stating that we don't know yet where this baby is going. Could even end up in your front yard, Kooky.
     
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  4. konradv
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    konradv Gold Member

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    The difference is that computer models will get better and better, while your arguments become old and stale. :cool:
     
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  5. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    non linear chaotic systems cannot be successfully predicted even with perfect initial inputs and a perfect theory. we have neither and no hope of acquiring them. the only reason some forecasts seem to be reasonable is because there is a constant tweeking of inputs and a weeding out of models that are incompatible. making a thousand predictions and only publicizing the ones that appear to be reasonably skillfull is not scientifically valid. worse yet is pointing to several mutually incompatible models to get results for different types of outputs.

    models are useful and necessary tools to help increase understanding of systems but they cannot be considered actual data in non linear systems like they are today. especially when the uncertainties are not even offered.
     

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