OMG Trumps gonna start WW3

There is a difference between contemplating, and being irrationally paranoid and fearful.
So? The difference between what is irrational fear and rational fear could be pretty damn slim. And part of the calculus is (or should be) whether the decision being considered inherently risks more than it is worth.

What happens if our babbling, incoherent, demented commander in chief miscalculates the prospect of Putin believing he needs to use a tactical nuke or two on the battlefield ?

You confuse to different concepts. Having the risks very much in mind isn’t the same as having those risks be the sole consideration. But they damn well be part of the equation and, with luck, properly weighted.
 
What happens if our babbling, incoherent, demented commander in chief miscalculates the prospect of Putin believing he needs to use a tactical nuke or two on the battlefield ?

Putin could play his tactical nuke card on the battlefield

Up till now, NATO has held back on deploying its forces, especially air power. I don’t think NATO would reply with tactical nukes but would send its air forces into Ukraine using conventional munitions against Russian targets

I don’t think Putin wants to go there
 
Putin could play his tactical nuke card on the battlefield

Up till now, NATO has held back on deploying its forces, especially air power. I don’t think NATO would reply with tactical nukes but would send its air forces into Ukraine using conventional munitions against Russian targets

I don’t think Putin wants to go there
You once again ascribe rationality to Putin.

I’m not as optimistic about that as you seem to be.
 
Shouldn't it be WW IV?
You all said he was going to start WW III 6 years ago
Remember when they said Trump was going to launch nuclear missiles :badgrin:
or better yet, the raid on Mara Lago they discovered nuclear codes :badgrin:
 
I don’t think NATO would reply with tactical nukes but would send its air forces into Ukraine using conventional munitions against Russian targets

Honestly, if Russia was to use nukes I do not think it would be NATO but the UN that responds.

That is the kind of behavior that could even see Russia ejected from the organization and a multinational force from a great many nations not part of NATO getting involved. And actively ejecting Russia forces from all areas of Ukraine that they now occupy.
 
Honestly, if Russia was to use nukes I do not think it would be NATO but the UN that responds.

That is the kind of behavior that could even see Russia ejected from the organization and a multinational force from a great many nations not part of NATO getting involved. And actively ejecting Russia forces from all areas of Ukraine that they now occupy.

If Putin uses nukes, even China will not stand by him
But Trump will
 
If Putin uses nukes, even China will not stand by him
But Trump will

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If Trump had won, he wouldn’t have lifted a finger to help Ukraine
He still won’t.
Trump was not eager to make the military industrial complex wealthy by fighting nasty little wars in far off places. As a Vietnam Era vet I often wonder if that war was truly necessary. We lost a lot of good men in that war and our soldiers suffered many serious injuries such as loss of limbs.

Putin may not have invaded Ukraine if Trump was President to begin with. Putin viewed Trump as unpredictable and Biden as weak.

Our enemies are smart enough to understand that we change Presidents every four or eight years. They look at life in the long term and realize that they can wait out an unpredictable President like Trump and wait for a weak President like Joe Biden.

Even this CNN opinion article admits Trump is right on some of his views about The conflict in Ukraine.

Opinion: What Trump gets right on Ukraine​


Opinion by Daniel R. DePetris
Updated 7:14 PM EDT, Sat May 13, 2023

***snip***

While it was understandably controversial when Trump demurred on whether he wanted Ukraine to beat Russia, he said that in the context of calling for a much-needed resolution. “I don’t think in terms of winning and losing,” he said. “I think in terms of getting it settled so we stop killing all these people.” Plenty of wars throughout history have ended in diplomatic settlements rather than outright surrenders.

***snip***


Another point Trump gets right is the vast disparity between the US and its European allies on the issue of assistance to Ukraine, even if he grossly exaggerates the amount of US aid. “I want Europe to put up more money,” he commented during the town hall. “Because they’re laughing at us.”

Rich European governments taking advantage of Uncle Sam’s generosity is, of course, a common theme for Trump; his rhetorical fights as president with Germany, France and the entire NATO alliance were underpinned by this notion. But Trump isn’t wrong to bring up this disparity.


***snip***

Trump is also correct to mention the difficulty the US faces in replacing its own military equipment even as it continues to send hundreds of millions of dollars in ammunition, air defenses and artillery rounds to Ukraine (though he overstated it when he says the Pentagon doesn’t have ammunition left for itself). America’s industrial defense base is struggling to keep up. “The huge needs of Ukraine are driving challenges in supplying material to combat operations at a level I did not anticipate,” former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Adm. James Stavridis, wrote last month.

***snip***


Trump’s positions on Ukraine can understandably generate moral outrage at times, but the practicalities need to be weighed. Trump danced around anchor Kaitlan Collins’ question Wednesday of whether Putin is a war criminal despite the man being single-handedly responsible for invading a sovereign country, trying to wipe out its identity and leading a military that has tortured civilians. The International Criminal Court issued a warrant for Putin’s arrest on March 17, making him a wanted man.

Even so, there is a good case to be made that addressing the issue of Putin’s accountability as the war goes on will only complicate the prospects of a negotiation down the line. As Trump said, “I think it’s something that should not be discussed now. It should be discussed later … if you say he’s a war criminal, it’s going to be a lot tougher to make a deal to get this thing stopped.”


.
 
Putin may not have invaded Ukraine if Trump was President to begin with. Putin viewed Trump as unpredictable and Biden as weak.
Putin also questioned NATOs resolve
Both Biden and NATO proved him wrong

Trump, however, is everything Putin expects
 
Putin also questioned NATOs resolve
Both Biden and NATO proved him wrong

Trump, however, is everything Putin expects
The main problem Putin had was to overestimate the ability of his military.
 
Nobody was willing to speak the truth to Putin about the actual strength and readiness of his military

Which was a problem that Hitler, Stalin, and Saddam Hussein all had as well. None of them were getting accurate appraisals of their military capabilities (among other things) because nobody dared to tell them something they did not want to hear.

One thing that is often glossed over is that a lot of the information before 2003 on the capabilities of the Iraqi chemical weapons programs were coming from high level British sources inside of Iraq. The problem was that the sources were so high that they were getting the information that Saddam was being given. Which was that they had plentiful chemical weapons to use in the event of an invasion and they were ready to be used. These sources were highly placed, and they had every confidence in what they reported. That is what was passed along to the US and the UN.

The only problem, is that nobody considered the possibility that Saddam himself was being lied to. There are also reports that he ordered the weapons to be used, and the units instead simply buried what they did have or claimed that they were used when in fact they were not. Either because they knew they were old and likely would not be effective, or what the response would have been if they did use them. That is why in 2003 when it was over, many artillery positions were discovered with caches nearby of buried munitions that dated back over a decade. They were deployed, but the crews simply refused to use them.

Something I pointed out which would be very likely if Putin was to try and order a first strike of his nuclear weapons. Many would simply refuse to do so, or possibly deliberately sabotage them before use so they will not detonate. That way they could honestly say they used them, and say they did not understand why they did not work as expected.
 

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