Caligirl
Oh yes it is too!
- Aug 25, 2008
- 2,567
- 240
- 48
WIth all due respect many of the polls you posted show a similar lead for Bush as Obama has now so it pretty much shows that from this point anything is possible. Doesn't mean we'll have a repeat of 2000. But it shows it could happen. Not worth going back and forth on.
One point worth making is the polls closed quite a bit the last weekend of 2000 election when the Bush DUI story came out. So if we're going to see a repeat of 2000 I would think there'd have to be a fairly dramatic "October Surprise". If there is going to be an October surprise my bet would be on something come out of Rezko.
I also think the current poll models may be wrong and of course we don't know what if any "Bradley Effect" we'll see. Just my two cents.
The four highest (Bush +10, +9, +11, and +13) in that set are all gallup polls.
Gallup is showing a definite bush bias compared to the other polls.
Even if you take those data at face value, the average with the other polls, is still around five.
So, my only quibble is that your initial post is saying that bush was ahead by ten on October 19th. That makes it sound like he was the clear double-digit front runner. He wasn't. He was ahead by ten only in gallup, the highest poll of any in that set. The average he is ahead, is about five. And, he won.
But yeah,. I agree it could tighten, and a surprise could flip things. Still, the trend for Obama continues to be 'pulling away'.