October 19, 2000: Bush 50% Gore 40%

[Caligirl]

WIth all due respect many of the polls you posted show a similar lead for Bush as Obama has now so it pretty much shows that from this point anything is possible. Doesn't mean we'll have a repeat of 2000. But it shows it could happen. Not worth going back and forth on.

One point worth making is the polls closed quite a bit the last weekend of 2000 election when the Bush DUI story came out. So if we're going to see a repeat of 2000 I would think there'd have to be a fairly dramatic "October Surprise". If there is going to be an October surprise my bet would be on something come out of Rezko.

I also think the current poll models may be wrong and of course we don't know what if any "Bradley Effect" we'll see. Just my two cents.

The four highest (Bush +10, +9, +11, and +13) in that set are all gallup polls.
Gallup is showing a definite bush bias compared to the other polls.

Even if you take those data at face value, the average with the other polls, is still around five.

So, my only quibble is that your initial post is saying that bush was ahead by ten on October 19th. That makes it sound like he was the clear double-digit front runner. He wasn't. He was ahead by ten only in gallup, the highest poll of any in that set. The average he is ahead, is about five. And, he won.

But yeah,. I agree it could tighten, and a surprise could flip things. Still, the trend for Obama continues to be 'pulling away'.

 

[elvis]

And Gallup says the voting is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats something that should give you some pause.

Sweetheart, don't you get tired of distorting reality (not mention magazine covers)?

that can't be right. gallup must be biased.

 

[Caligirl]

Well, Harry Reid sent out this email to Californians supporting Obama, saying the opposite for nevada:

Next door in my home state -- the crucial battleground of Nevada -- this election is already under way.

Early Vote began last Saturday, and we're off to a very good start. By Tuesday, 59 percent of voters were Democratic and only 25 percent were Republican.

But history clearly tells us that we can't rely on early success. John Kerry had a large lead in Nevada after the first few days of Early Vote.

I am skeptical that the turnout is fifty fifty.

 

[oreo]

This polling data is almost laughable. They are all over the place. HERES MY REASON WHY.

I was listening to one pollster that says there are many Americans who will not answer that phone when pollsters call. I am one of those. Also, I really don't believe it's anyone's business-who or what I am voting for. Pollsters are a litte worried over the "Caller I.D. effect".

I for one will not answer my phone, if I don't know who it is. I have caller I.D. like the majority of Americans. I even have it set up on my T.V. I just don't want to be bothered by anyone I don't know.

The other reason pollsters are a little concerned. Is the over exhuberance of the supporters of Barack Obama, versus John McCain. Supporters of Obama are more than ready to answer any & all pollsters, while McCain supporters are more to my way of thinking.

We saw this in the exit polls during the 04 election. John Kerry --"all day long" according to exit polls was running away with the election. Well, we know what happened. Supporters of democrats appear to be more than willing to fill out exit polling data, while supporters of the republican candidate prefer to leave immediately after voting.

So, if this election turns on Obama--we will see all pollsters & the media in a state of shock for months. If this happens it will be due to the Caller I.D. Effect, & not the Bradley effect.

 

[Toro]

The other reason pollsters are a little concerned. Is the over exhuberance of the supporters of Barack Obama, versus John McCain. Supporters of Obama are more than ready to answer any & all pollsters, while McCain supporters are more to my way of thinking.

How do you know that?

You can just as easily say that Obama's constituency is being under-estimated given that he skews more heavily towards young people, many of whom only have cell phones and pollsters are more likely to miss cell phones.

We saw this in the exit polls during the 04 election. John Kerry --"all day long" according to exit polls was running away with the election. Well, we know what happened. Supporters of democrats appear to be more than willing to fill out exit polling data, while supporters of the republican candidate prefer to leave immediately after voting.

Exit polls are very different from the polls you see every day. Exit polls grab people as they are walking out of the polling booth. Generally, Democrats vote earlier in the day while Republicans vote later. Thus, it is easier to over-sample Democrats in exit polls earlier in the day, as happened to Kerry. This also happened in the 1992 British election when exit polls projected a Labour minority government and Major won a majority.

It doesn't mean the polls are all correct. In the most recent Canadian election, 10 of 11 polls on the weekend prior to the election had the Tories at 35%-37%, and one at 38%. The Tories wound up winning 37%.

However, the odds are that the polls for Obama are correct. The anecdotal evidence confirms it, from McCain pulling out of states he should be competitive, i.e. Colorado, to putting people in states he should win and where they had little staff a few months ago, i.e. Virginia, to reactions from Republicans such as Tim Pawlenty pulling all negative ads in Minnesota.