Intrade - Markets Currently, on the Intrade 2012 Presidential Winner board, Obama has dropped to 59.5% chance of winning in November, down from 78% just before the debate against Romney. Romney, meanwhile, has gone from 21% just before the debate with Obama, up to 40.6%. Yeah, it's completely non-scientific, but it's interesting none the less. Side note: RCP, Romney is 1 point up over Obama in the average... ahead in Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, & Missouri, and is within 2.5 in Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia and New Hampshire. As for the electoral map on RCP, Romney has pulled to within 20 of Obama... 201-181 (swing states). Winning the swing states he's ahead in now would give Romney 254, needing only 16 more to win. Ohio alone would give it to Romney. If he doesn't get Ohio, then any combination of Wisconsin, Virginia & New Hampshire would give it to Romney. The fat lady has not sung, libtards. Don't go renting your tux/gown for the inaugural ball just yet.