The RCP map with no toss ups has Obama winning 273-265, taking all the Kerry states + IA (not close now), NM, and CO but if this same map were run with likely 2012 EVs, Obama's 8 EV lead turns to about a 12 EV deficit as AZ, FL, TX, NV, and GA gain, while NY, MA, PA, MI lose EVs after the adjustments for the 2010 census Clinton, who had a successful 1st term in terms of dramatically increasing economic growth, reducing unemployment, and not having to send US troops into a major war, only gained 9 EVs from 92 to 96. And this was all because Florida flipped in his favor. While he also added AZ, 3 states - CO, MT, and GA flipped from Bush Sr. to Dole. Therefore, with all the values voters in the south, lower midwest, and great plains, it is hard to see Obama gaining a significant number of EVs even if he is a raging success as pres. A second Obama term (I think he is likely to win this year), will require lots of effort in FL, AZ, and NV, and even that would make a 2012 re-election a fairly close call with just over 300 EVs in his favor.