NY Times says Trump will win nomination outright

[Correll]

I dismiss polling done online, yes, because it so skewed that reliable predictions are not possible.

Thank you on showing your confused on anecdotal evidence.

There is no avowed crossover for Trump based on Hillary hate as there is cross over for HRC based on Trump hate.

This may help, from NYT.

Monday, April 11, 2016

Members of the establishment in both major political parties worry that supporters of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders will not align with the party’s eventual nominee if their guy isn't chosen, but that appears to be a much more serious problem for Republicans than for Democrats.

One-in-four Likely Republican Voters (25%) say they are more likely to vote for someone else or not vote at all if Trump does not win the Republican nomination and chooses not to run as an independent, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. This includes 12% who are more likely to opt for another candidate and 13% who are inclined to stay at home. Another eight percent (8%) say they will more likely vote for the Democratic nominee instead.

Just 62% of Republicans say they are more likely to vote for the Republican nominee if it isn't Trump. By comparison, 80% of Democrats say they are more likely to vote for their party's nominee if it isn't Sanders and he chooses not to run as a third-party candidate. Nine percent (9%) are more likely to choose the Republican candidate, while six percent (6%) lean toward voting for someone else. Only two percent (2%) are more likely not vote at all. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

1. I agree with a point you raise, and you accuse me of being confused?

2. You are confusing Crossover appeal, which is what we were discussing, and now Angry Loser Effect where Trump or Sanders supporters might not support the Party candidate if they don't win.


The scenario I am envisioning, and seems to be coming more and more likely is Trump vs Hillary.

Thus, the factors that would matter would include.

a. Trump's crossover appeal to Working CLass/Middle Class white dems,

b. Anti-Trump republicans NOT voting for Trump, or voting for HIllary.

c. Sanders supporters NOT voting for HIllary or voting for Trump.



That survey showing 20 percent of Democrats backing Trump? Come. On.


T
"4. Polls from established pollsters show much less crossover.
Two recent surveys from traditional pollsters show partisan crossover — but at much smaller levels. CNN/ORC polled in late December, and Fox Newsreleased a poll on Friday. In CNN's survey, 11 percent of Democrats go for Trump and 9 percent of Republicans go for Clinton. In Fox's, 9 and 8 percent switch teams."



IMO, if or once the GOP leadership stops marginalizing their own front runner with hysterical nonsense, those republicans can be easily and quickly brought back into the GOP.

Meanwhile the Trump dems are motivated by very real and very serious conflict of interests with the Democratic Platform designed to represent young progressives and minority voters.


That will be much harder for HIllary to overcome.

Indeed, I would expect as Trump gets to address those issues more as the campaign comes down to one vs one, that those numbers could INCREASE rather than decrease.

 

[JakeStarkey]

You are confused about anecdotal evidence.

Yes, I agree: HRC v DT.

Trump will have minimal effect on attracting crossovers from the working class and middle class dems. The data you gave shows minimal effect of cross over either way.

Close to 1/4 of Republicans flatly say they won't for Trump. I expect that to soften somewhat.

Sanders people will overwhelmingly support the Dem ticket, the non-Trumpers are yelling "no, hell, no" to a large extent.

Correll, you have a hard time understanding that Trump is as Progressive as Clinton.

Trump wants to win? Ignore the far right, cozy up to women and minorities big time.

 

[Correll]

You are confused about anecdotal evidence.

Yes, I agree: HRC v DT.

Trump will have minimal effect on attracting crossovers from the working class and middle class dems. The data you gave shows minimal effect of cross over either way.

Close to 1/4 of Republicans flatly say they won't for Trump. I expect that to soften somewhat.

Sanders people will overwhelmingly support the Dem ticket, the non-Trumpers are yelling "no, hell, no" to a large extent.

Correll, you have a hard time understanding that Trump is as Progressive as Clinton.

Trump wants to win? Ignore the far right, cozy up to women and minorities big time.

Trump will do fine with white women. Minorities are unlikely no matter what he says or does.

As for all Republican Candidates.

The only path to victory is to run up the white vote.

Trump's policies are designed to be attractive to working class and middle class white dems.

If you establishment republicans stop supporting the lib campaign to marginalize your own party, those anti-Trump gop voters will mostly come home.

 

[JoeB131]

Trump will do fine with white women. Minorities are unlikely no matter what he says or does.

As for all Republican Candidates.

The only path to victory is to run up the white vote.

Trump's policies are designed to be attractive to working class and middle class white dems.

If you establishment republicans stop supporting the lib campaign to marginalize your own party, those anti-Trump gop voters will mostly come home.

Trump is going to lose. The only question is, how much damage is he going to do to the party for decades to come.

Before Barry Goldwater, Republicans used to get a respectable amount of the African American Vote. About 30% when Nixon ran in 1960. Then after 50 years of shitting on them, they get about 6% of the African American vote.

Trump will do the same for Hispanics when he's busy losing 50 states to Hillary.

 

[Correll]

Trump will do fine with white women. Minorities are unlikely no matter what he says or does.

As for all Republican Candidates.

The only path to victory is to run up the white vote.

Trump's policies are designed to be attractive to working class and middle class white dems.

If you establishment republicans stop supporting the lib campaign to marginalize your own party, those anti-Trump gop voters will mostly come home.

Trump is going to lose. The only question is, how much damage is he going to do to the party for decades to come.

Before Barry Goldwater, Republicans used to get a respectable amount of the African American Vote. About 30% when Nixon ran in 1960. Then after 50 years of shitting on them, they get about 6% of the African American vote.

Trump will do the same for Hispanics when he's busy losing 50 states to Hillary.

The "shitting" on them is a Leftist Myth.

ONe that has served you dishonest propagandists well.

As you have for generations terrorized and radicalized the growing minority demographics, the odds are in your favor.

BUT, it is not completely hopeless for Republicans yet, if they can run up the white vote, which Trump, with his strategy of appealing to the issues and interests of the working class white dems, can do.


YOur confidence is based on your bigoted belief that those whites are "stupid"d have been voting for republicans all this time.

Which is incorrect.

 

[JoeB131]

The "shitting" on them is a Leftist Myth.

ONe that has served you dishonest propagandists well.

uh, no, guy. Southern Strategy, Welfare Queens, Willie Horton, White Hands ad- the Republicans have made an art form out of telling working class whites its those Darkies making their lives miserable. The only thing is, the darkies have noticed you doing it.

BUT, it is not completely hopeless for Republicans yet, if they can run up the white vote, which Trump, with his strategy of appealing to the issues and interests of the working class white dems, can do.

Again, can't see how Trump is going to get more than the 60% of whites who voted for Romney when he can't even get Romney to support him.

again, I have yet to meet the person who told me "I voted for Obama in 2012, but I'm voting for Trump this time because I hate me some Mexicans.

But Trump's real problem is going to be with women. the guy just doesn't like some uppity woman talking back to him, as we can see by how he went nuts with Rosie O'Donnell or Megyn Kelly, fix months of going toe to toe with Hillary is going to get really ugly.

 

[JoeB131]

YOur confidence is based on your bigoted belief that those whites are "stupid"d have been voting for republicans all this time.

Which is incorrect.

I think anyone voting Republican before 2008 was merely fooled.

I think anyone voting for Republicans AFTER 2008, is just plain fucking stupid.

Happy to have cleared that up for you.

 

[Correll]

The "shitting" on them is a Leftist Myth.

ONe that has served you dishonest propagandists well.

uh, no, guy. Southern Strategy, Welfare Queens, Willie Horton, White Hands ad- the Republicans have made an art form out of telling working class whites its those Darkies making their lives miserable. The only thing is, the darkies have noticed you doing it.

Willie Horton? This is evidence of Republican racism to you? That Republicans had a problem with this?


"On October 26, 1974, in Lawrence, Massachusetts, Horton and two accomplices robbed Joseph Fournier, a 17-year-old gas station attendant, and then fatally stabbed him 19 times after he had cooperated by handing over all of the money in the cash register. His body was stuffed in a trash can so his feet were jammed up against his chin. Fournier died from blood loss.[2] Horton was convicted of murder, sentenced to life imprisonment without the possibility of parole, and incarcerated at the Northeastern Correctional Center in Massachusetts.[3]

On June 6, 1986, he was released as part of a weekend furlough program but did not return. On April 3, 1987 inOxon Hill, Maryland, Horton twice raped a local woman after pistol-whipping, knifing, binding, and gagging her fiancé. He then stole the car belonging to the man he had assaulted. He was later shot and captured by Corporal Yusuf Muhammad (formerly named Joseph Bell) of the Prince George's County Police Department after a pursuit. On October 20, Horton was sentenced in Maryland to two consecutive life terms plus 85 years. The sentencing judge, Vincent J. Femia, refused to return Horton to Massachusetts, saying, "I'm not prepared to take the chance that Mr. Horton might again be furloughed or otherwise released. This man should never draw a breath of free air again."


That is what that issue was about, and now, thanks to constant lies by the vile leftist media, THAT has entered the Conventional Wisdom as "evidence" that the Republicans are racist.


And it works great, for you. You have put a complete lock on the black vote, and to a lesser extent other minority votes.

Of course, at the expense of convincing a large minority of the country that the majority of the majority hates then and is actively working to "keep them down".

And of course, more and more, whites are getting pissed off at constantly being made into the bad guy, falsely.

Great job on your part lefty, if your goal is to tear America down.

BUT, it is not completely hopeless for Republicans yet, if they can run up the white vote, which Trump, with his strategy of appealing to the issues and interests of the working class white dems, can do.

Again, can't see how Trump is going to get more than the 60% of whites who voted for Romney when he can't even get Romney to support him.

again, I have yet to meet the person who told me "I voted for Obama in 2012, but I'm voting for Trump this time because I hate me some Mexicans.

By appealing to whites who didn't have a reason to vote for Romney, such as white working class and middle class dems.

And you can shove your Race Card up your ass.

But Trump's real problem is going to be with women. the guy just doesn't like some uppity woman talking back to him, as we can see by how he went nuts with Rosie O'Donnell or Megyn Kelly, fix months of going toe to toe with Hillary is going to get really ugly.

Bullshit that is not as ingrained as the Race Card Bullshit. Trump can overcome this one.

He already has a interview scheduled with Megan Kelly, and Kelly is strongly motivated to be less of an ass this time around, as she had alienated a large portion of her potential viewership by targeting Trump last time.

Trump will turn on the charm and that will be half that battle won.

Meanwhile, the vast majority of women are smart enough to realize that in the upcoming Trump vs HIllary fight that attacks Trump aims at Hillary is targeted at Hillary and not "women".

 

[AceRothstein]

The snake known as Ted Cruz is going to try to wrangle the nomination away from Trump right up to the convention. He might even try after the convention, he's that conniving and untrustworthy.

 

[JoeB131]

Willie Horton? This is evidence of Republican racism to you? That Republicans had a problem with this?

oh, republicans had no problem with this sort of race baiting. Black folks, on the other hand saw, "Vote for Bush or a scary black man will get out of prison and rape your wife" exactly for what it was.

Even Lee Atwater apologized for the Willie Horton ads, when he was sick and dying and about to meet his Sky Pixie.

By appealing to whites who didn't have a reason to vote for Romney, such as white working class and middle class dems.

And you can shove your Race Card up your ass.

why would these people have a reason to vote for another clueless rich guy?

He already has a interview scheduled with Megan Kelly, and Kelly is strongly motivated to be less of an ass this time around, as she had alienated a large portion of her potential viewership by targeting Trump last time.

Wait a minute, DOING HER JOB is being an ass? She asked him a perfectly valid question. He responded by making vulgar comments about her menstrual cycle.

Again, Trump doesn't have to win over the inbred, slack-jawed, bible thumping assholes who watch Faux News. He has to win over people who are intelligent, sane and not racist assholes.
.

 

[Correll]

Willie Horton? This is evidence of Republican racism to you? That Republicans had a problem with this?

oh, republicans had no problem with this sort of race baiting. Black folks, on the other hand saw, "Vote for Bush or a scary black man will get out of prison and rape your wife" exactly for what it was.

Even Lee Atwater apologized for the Willie Horton ads, when he was sick and dying and about to meet his Sky Pixie.

By appealing to whites who didn't have a reason to vote for Romney, such as white working class and middle class dems.

And you can shove your Race Card up your ass.

why would these people have a reason to vote for another clueless rich guy?

He already has a interview scheduled with Megan Kelly, and Kelly is strongly motivated to be less of an ass this time around, as she had alienated a large portion of her potential viewership by targeting Trump last time.

Wait a minute, DOING HER JOB is being an ass? She asked him a perfectly valid question. He responded by making vulgar comments about her menstrual cycle.

Again, Trump doesn't have to win over the inbred, slack-jawed, bible thumping assholes who watch Faux News. He has to win over people who are intelligent, sane and not racist assholes.
.

1. This Willie Horton? This is evidence of Republican racism to you? That Republicans had a problem with this?


"On October 26, 1974, in Lawrence, Massachusetts, Horton and two accomplices robbed Joseph Fournier, a 17-year-old gas station attendant, and then fatally stabbed him 19 times after he had cooperated by handing over all of the money in the cash register. His body was stuffed in a trash can so his feet were jammed up against his chin. Fournier died from blood loss.[2]Horton was convicted of murder, sentenced to life imprisonment without the possibility of parole, and incarcerated at theNortheastern Correctional Center in Massachusetts.[3]

On June 6, 1986, he was released as part of a weekend furlough program but did not return. On April 3, 1987 inOxon Hill, Maryland, Horton twice raped a local woman after pistol-whipping, knifing, binding, and gagging her fiancé. He then stole the car belonging to the man he had assaulted. He was later shot and captured by Corporal Yusuf Muhammad (formerly named Joseph Bell) of the Prince George's County Police Department after a pursuit. On October 20, Horton was sentenced in Maryland to two consecutive life terms plus 85 years. The sentencing judge, Vincent J. Femia, refused to return Horton to Massachusetts, saying, "I'm not prepared to take the chance that Mr. Horton might again be furloughed or otherwise released. This man should never draw a breath of free air again."


That is what that issue was about, and now, thanks to constant lies by the vile leftist media, THAT has entered the Conventional Wisdom as "evidence" that the Republicans are racist.


And it works great, for you. You have put a complete lock on the black vote, and to a lesser extent other minority votes.

Of course, at the expense of convincing a large minority of the country that the majority of the majority hates then and is actively working to "keep them down".

And of course, more and more, whites are getting pissed off at constantly being made into the bad guy, falsely.

Great job on your part lefty, if your goal is to tear America down.



2. HIs policies on Trade and Immigration are designed to serve the interests of working class white dems, and thus attract their votes. As I have repeatedly pointed out. That is why he can run up that vote.

3. She was not doing her job when she was "moderating" that debate. She targeted Trump, and he pushed back. Good for him.

And when she conducts and interview properly and Trump gets to "mend fences" with her, he will demonstrate the LEft's spin on his prior clash with Kelly was bullshit. ANd that he is not "anti-woman" or "unreasonable".

 

[JoeB131]

1. This Willie Horton? This is evidence of Republican racism to you? That Republicans had a problem with this?

Yes, it was racist, and no, most republicans didn't have a problem with it. But black folks had a HUGE problem with being collectively villified.

And of course, more and more, whites are getting pissed off at constantly being made into the bad guy, falsely.

The only ones getting pissed off are the racists finding themselves less welcome in polite company.

2. HIs policies on Trade and Immigration are designed to serve the interests of working class white dems, and thus attract their votes. As I have repeatedly pointed out. That is why he can run up that vote.

Meh, not really. Most Americans, about 63%, support a path to citizenship.

3. She was not doing her job when she was "moderating" that debate. She targeted Trump, and he pushed back. Good for him.

And when she conducts and interview properly and Trump gets to "mend fences" with her, he will demonstrate the LEft's spin on his prior clash with Kelly was bullshit. ANd that he is not "anti-woman" or "unreasonable".

Right. Tell you how this is going to play out... Some Clinton Surrogate -probably a woman - is going to say something really stinging about Trump. Trump, who has the impulse control of a fifth grader, will say something truly misogynistic. Everyone will be horrified. Then he'll try to walk it back, until the next surrogate gets under his skin. Wash, Rinse, Repeat.

You see, the mistake the Republicans made was not challenging Trump's racism and misogyny early on. They all hoped that the majority who saw Trump as a buffoon would get their shit together and get behind one candidate.