Nov 2010 Congressional Blowout Prediction Thead

[CrusaderFrank]

There are a few variables but on the low end the Republicans pick up 75 seats and on the high end 100 in the House. The only really "Safe" Senate seats for the Dems are in NY, maybe Hawaii, low end 10 seat pick up, high end 14-16+

The high end estimated assume that Steele is booted from the RNC and Palin replaces him.

By Dec 2010, two thing happen, Hillary resigns and starts to run against Obama, and Obama loses all interest in US politics and take the UN gig as his full time job, again assuming that Palin is head of the RNC.

I wrote this in annoyingvision so Mr. Shaman can read it

 

[bigrebnc1775]

There are a few variables but on the low end the Republicans pick up 75 seats and on the high end 100 in the House. The only really "Safe" Senate seats for the Dems are in NY, maybe Hawaii, low end 10 seat pick up, high end 14-16+

The high end estimated assume that Steele is booted from the RNC and Palin replaces him.

By Dec 2010, two thing happen, Hillary resigns and starts to run against Obama, and Obama loses all interest in US politics and take the UN gig as his full time job, again assuming that Palin is head of the RNC.

I wrote this in annoyingvision so Mr. Shaman can read it

You forgot about California ands Illinois

 

[DiveCon]

There are a few variables but on the low end the Republicans pick up 75 seats and on the high end 100 in the House. The only really "Safe" Senate seats for the Dems are in NY, maybe Hawaii, low end 10 seat pick up, high end 14-16+

The high end estimated assume that Steele is booted from the RNC and Palin replaces him.

By Dec 2010, two thing happen, Hillary resigns and starts to run against Obama, and Obama loses all interest in US politics and take the UN gig as his full time job, again assuming that Palin is head of the RNC.

I wrote this in annoyingvision so Mr. Shaman can read it

and just what are you basing this on?

for one thing, there are never more than 34 Senate seats in play in any ONE election cycle
and how many of those are currently held by Democrats?
and how many are secure that are held by republicans?
the likelyhood of 14 to 16 seats changing is a near impossibility

 

[Toro]

Indeed, the market believes the GOP will win back the House. The Intrade futures market is predicting a 60% chance of the Republicans winning.

However, the odds of the GOP taking the Senate are only 17%.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

There are a few variables but on the low end the Republicans pick up 75 seats and on the high end 100 in the House. The only really "Safe" Senate seats for the Dems are in NY, maybe Hawaii, low end 10 seat pick up, high end 14-16+

The high end estimated assume that Steele is booted from the RNC and Palin replaces him.

By Dec 2010, two thing happen, Hillary resigns and starts to run against Obama, and Obama loses all interest in US politics and take the UN gig as his full time job, again assuming that Palin is head of the RNC.

I wrote this in annoyingvision so Mr. Shaman can read it

You forgot about California ands Illinois

I agree, Republicans will probably pick those up too

 

[CrusaderFrank]

There are a few variables but on the low end the Republicans pick up 75 seats and on the high end 100 in the House. The only really "Safe" Senate seats for the Dems are in NY, maybe Hawaii, low end 10 seat pick up, high end 14-16+

The high end estimated assume that Steele is booted from the RNC and Palin replaces him.

By Dec 2010, two thing happen, Hillary resigns and starts to run against Obama, and Obama loses all interest in US politics and take the UN gig as his full time job, again assuming that Palin is head of the RNC.

I wrote this in annoyingvision so Mr. Shaman can read it

and just what are you basing this on?

for one thing, there are never more than 34 Senate seats in play in any ONE election cycle
and how many of those are currently held by Democrats?
and how many are secure that are held by republicans?
the likelyhood of 14 to 16 seats changing is a near impossibility

Like I said, that's the high end estimate, Dems could actually hold more than NY, we'll see

 

[bucs90]

The biggest mistake the left made was playing the race card.

You play the race card, and you lose independents and moderates forever. The left made a calculated risk going racial to fight the Tea Party. And even if some independents and moderates didn't like the Tea Party, they absolutely HATE the race card.

The left played it, it failed miserably, and now they'll deal with it. Obama and the modern left have accidentally defined themselves as being very quick to play the race card, and they'll sink for it.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

There are a few variables but on the low end the Republicans pick up 75 seats and on the high end 100 in the House. The only really "Safe" Senate seats for the Dems are in NY, maybe Hawaii, low end 10 seat pick up, high end 14-16+

You're delusional. One, the GOP is not going to pick up the Senate. They will make gains in it, but they aren't going to get a majority. Two, 75 seats in the House isn't even the high side. That's probably closer to 50 and maybe 30 on the low end. Of course, this is all assuming the momentum stays behind them between now and then. Politicians have an uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

[Baruch Menachem]

I think the way it will go is R's will pick up 38 house seats and 8 senate seats.


Not based on anything but that fate likes to play silly buggers and it is time for western civilization to decline and fall anyway.

 

[DiveCon]

there are only 19 senate seats currently held by Dems in this election(and i think some of those have already been done or will be done before the nov election IE special elections to fill vacant seats) there are currently only 3 seats that most polls show going to the repubs, 6 are called toss ups
there are also 1 or 2 GOP seats(depending on the pollster) that are tossups
the idea that the GOP could take all 6 of those as well as hold onto both GOP tossups and take some that are currently leaning to dems, highly unlikely

 

[Yurt]

hillary won't run against obama

 

[skookerasbil]

House returns to GOP........100% certainty. They fall 3 seats short in the Senate. At least it'll be good enough to grind this radical crap to a halt.

 

[Ragnar]

Power Line - A demotion for Nancy Pelosi? Part One

I've been surfing around various political websites trying to get a feel for the race for a majority in the House of Representatives. Larry Sabato's breakdown is interesting because as of July 8 he has 13 Democratic-held seats leaning Republican and 26 Democratic-held seats rated a toss-up. If the Republicans were to win all of these seats, they would pick up the 39 needed to control the House. They would not need to win any of the 22 Democratic-held seats that Sabato says "lean" Democratic. But they would, of course, have to hold the 8 Republican seats Sabato thinks are in play...

I'll say the Republicans gain 48 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate. (plus a bunch of Republican Governors will win in a bunch of States)

All in all a great year for R's but in the end there will still be a ton of work to do and the Dems will still have a bunch of power to play with from 2006 and 2008 gains.

On Edit:
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2010/08/026900.php

 

[Epsilon Delta]

My prediction:

Senate - There's 40 continuing Democrats and 23 continuing republicans, with 37 seats at stake. I'm going to say the Democrats will still have the majority (they will keep at least 11 seats), but the Republicans are likely to win at the very least least 20 seats (for a total of 43), with Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania being the biggest toss-ups. In the end, it's likely to end up being 54 Democrats, 45 Republicans and Crist, with perhaps 1 or 2 more seats going to the Republicans for a 52-47-1 line-up.

House - The House is trickier with still another three months to go. It could even split right down the middle. I have a feeling that though it'll be an ass whooping it will just barely be held on by the democrats, with maybe a 220-230 (D) to 205-215 (R), and that's if they pull their shit together.

 

[DiveCon]

My prediction:

Senate - There's 40 continuing Democrats and 23 continuing republicans, with 37 seats at stake. I'm going to say the Democrats will still have the majority (they will keep at least 11 seats), but the Republicans are likely to win at the very least least 20 seats (for a total of 43), with Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania being the biggest toss-ups. In the end, it's likely to end up being 54 Democrats, 45 Republicans and Crist, with perhaps 1 or 2 more seats going to the Republicans for a 52-47-1 line-up.

House - The House is trickier with still another three months to go. It could even split right down the middle. I have a feeling that though it'll be an ass whooping it will just barely be held on by the democrats, with maybe a 220-230 (D) to 205-215 (R), and that's if they pull their shit together.

you really think Crist will pull it out?

 

[Epsilon Delta]

My prediction:

Senate - There's 40 continuing Democrats and 23 continuing republicans, with 37 seats at stake. I'm going to say the Democrats will still have the majority (they will keep at least 11 seats), but the Republicans are likely to win at the very least least 20 seats (for a total of 43), with Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania being the biggest toss-ups. In the end, it's likely to end up being 54 Democrats, 45 Republicans and Crist, with perhaps 1 or 2 more seats going to the Republicans for a 52-47-1 line-up.

House - The House is trickier with still another three months to go. It could even split right down the middle. I have a feeling that though it'll be an ass whooping it will just barely be held on by the democrats, with maybe a 220-230 (D) to 205-215 (R), and that's if they pull their shit together.

you really think Crist will pull it out?

He's been doing pretty well in the polls, at least. When it comes down to it, the state Democrats are going to realize (and I think most already have) that it's either him or Rubio, and they'd rather have a guy who may or may not caucus with the Republicans than a real Republican. Along with the disenfranchised Republicans and many independents, he'll have a fairly good shot at it. But if the Democrat somehow surges ahead even slightly, Crist will likely lose and the Republican will win, ironically enough.

 

[DiveCon]

My prediction:

Senate - There's 40 continuing Democrats and 23 continuing republicans, with 37 seats at stake. I'm going to say the Democrats will still have the majority (they will keep at least 11 seats), but the Republicans are likely to win at the very least least 20 seats (for a total of 43), with Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania being the biggest toss-ups. In the end, it's likely to end up being 54 Democrats, 45 Republicans and Crist, with perhaps 1 or 2 more seats going to the Republicans for a 52-47-1 line-up.

House - The House is trickier with still another three months to go. It could even split right down the middle. I have a feeling that though it'll be an ass whooping it will just barely be held on by the democrats, with maybe a 220-230 (D) to 205-215 (R), and that's if they pull their shit together.

you really think Crist will pull it out?

He's been doing pretty well in the polls, at least. When it comes down to it, the state Democrats are going to realize (and I think most already have) that it's either him or Rubio, and they'd rather have a guy who may or may not caucus with the Republicans than a real Republican. Along with the disenfranchised Republicans and many independents, he'll have a fairly good shot at it. But if the Democrat somehow surges ahead even slightly, Crist will likely lose and the Republican will win, ironically enough.

the polls i've seen show it dead even between crist and rubio
but there are about 9% undecided
could tip it either way

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Let's start with the Senate

Senate Race (Note to Obama supporters, 2 Senate seats per state yield 100, not 114 Senators as we have only 50 states not 57)

..................... R De Ind
Current Seats 41 57 2
Contested Seats 18 19 --
Open Seats 7 7 --


Alabama Richard Shelby - inc William Barnes Republican Solid GOP Hold
Alaska Lisa Murkowski - inc undetermined Republican Strong GOP Hold
Arizona John McCain - inc undetermined Republican Strong GOP Hold
Arkansas John Boozman Blanche Lincoln - inc Democrat Solid GOP Gain
California Carly Fiorina Barbara Boxer - inc Democrat Weak GOP Gain Hold
Colorado undetermined Michael Bennett - inc Democrat Weak GOP Gain

First 6 so far are all GOP

 

[CrusaderFrank]

CT Linda McMahon Richard Blumenthal Democrat - OPEN GOP Gain
Delaware Mike Castle undetermined Democrat - OPEN Weak GOP Gain
Florida Marco Rubio Kendrick Meek Republican - OPEN Weak GOPGain
Charlie Crist - IND
Georgia Johnny Isakson - inc Michael Thurmond Republican Solid GOP Hold
Hawaii undetermined Daniel Inouye - inc Democrat Solid DEM Hold

4 GOP wins, with 3 flips, Dems hold Hawaii, must keep Obama Birth Certificate protected

So far 10 GOP 3 Dem, GOP +6

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Idaho Michael Crapo - inc Tom Sullivan Republican GOP Hold
Illinois Mark Steven Kirk Alexi Giannoulias Democrat - OPEN GOP Gain
Indiana Dan Coats Brad Ellsworth Democrat - OPEN Solid GOP Gain
Iowa Chuck Grassley - inc Roxanne Conlin Republican Solid GOP Hold
Kansas undetermined undetermined Republican - OPEN Solid GOP Hold
Kentucky Rand Paul Jack Conway Republican - OPEN Mod GOP Hold
Louisiana David Vitter - inc undetermined Republican Mod GOP Hold

Dems 0 for 7 here including surrendering Illinois

Need I go on? Yeah, I will

GOP +8