Nov 2010 Congressional Blowout Prediction Thead

Discussion in 'Politics' started by CrusaderFrank, Aug 3, 2010.

  1. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    There are a few variables but on the low end the Republicans pick up 75 seats and on the high end 100 in the House. The only really "Safe" Senate seats for the Dems are in NY, maybe Hawaii, low end 10 seat pick up, high end 14-16+

    The high end estimated assume that Steele is booted from the RNC and Palin replaces him.

    By Dec 2010, two thing happen, Hillary resigns and starts to run against Obama, and Obama loses all interest in US politics and take the UN gig as his full time job, again assuming that Palin is head of the RNC.

    I wrote this in annoyingvision so Mr. Shaman can read it
     
  2. bigrebnc1775
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    bigrebnc1775 Diamond Member

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    You forgot about California ands Illinois
     
  3. DiveCon
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    and just what are you basing this on?

    for one thing, there are never more than 34 Senate seats in play in any ONE election cycle
    and how many of those are currently held by Democrats?
    and how many are secure that are held by republicans?
    the likelyhood of 14 to 16 seats changing is a near impossibility
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2010
  4. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    Indeed, the market believes the GOP will win back the House. The Intrade futures market is predicting a 60% chance of the Republicans winning.

    [​IMG]

    However, the odds of the GOP taking the Senate are only 17%.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    I agree, Republicans will probably pick those up too
     
  6. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    Like I said, that's the high end estimate, Dems could actually hold more than NY, we'll see
     
  7. bucs90
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    bucs90 Gold Member

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    The biggest mistake the left made was playing the race card.

    You play the race card, and you lose independents and moderates forever. The left made a calculated risk going racial to fight the Tea Party. And even if some independents and moderates didn't like the Tea Party, they absolutely HATE the race card.

    The left played it, it failed miserably, and now they'll deal with it. Obama and the modern left have accidentally defined themselves as being very quick to play the race card, and they'll sink for it.
     
  8. Dont Taz Me Bro
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    Dont Taz Me Bro USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    You're delusional. One, the GOP is not going to pick up the Senate. They will make gains in it, but they aren't going to get a majority. Two, 75 seats in the House isn't even the high side. That's probably closer to 50 and maybe 30 on the low end. Of course, this is all assuming the momentum stays behind them between now and then. Politicians have an uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
     
  9. Baruch Menachem
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    Baruch Menachem '

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    I think the way it will go is R's will pick up 38 house seats and 8 senate seats.


    Not based on anything but that fate likes to play silly buggers and it is time for western civilization to decline and fall anyway.
     
  10. DiveCon
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    there are only 19 senate seats currently held by Dems in this election(and i think some of those have already been done or will be done before the nov election IE special elections to fill vacant seats) there are currently only 3 seats that most polls show going to the repubs, 6 are called toss ups
    there are also 1 or 2 GOP seats(depending on the pollster) that are tossups
    the idea that the GOP could take all 6 of those as well as hold onto both GOP tossups and take some that are currently leaning to dems, highly unlikely
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2010

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