New IIPC report leaked!

[westwall]

Either way, I think it is an interesting overview of what the science is headed.

Science is headed away from alarmism since the claims have reached a point where they simply can't be defended. Maybe climate science will actually become a science rather than a pseudoscientific cultish religion.

I totally agree that science is headed away from alarmism - which is why what we have seen of this report so far is anything but alarmist. If anything, it seems a little on the conservative side to me.

Do you agree with the conclusions listed in the OP?

You really do think people are stupid don't you.... Getting away from alarmist reporting then claiming that the report is conservative.....dude, you're no journalist...a climatologist maybe, but no journalist...

 

[westwall]

No, what we shoud do is realise that drought is common and 70 years isn't even an eyeblink in geological time...and wors droughts have happened when CO2 levels were much lower...and much higher and as a result, we shouldn't wave our arms hysterically in the air like old grannies and claim that CO2 is to blame.

Just because OP can cause increased droughts does not mean ALL droughts historically are linked to high levels of atmospheric CO2.

Of course there have always been droughts - what there has not always been are historicaly significant droughts in Spain, the US, India and New Zealand during the same year.

To my mind, that is worth investigating.

But....aren't you the ones trying to link the current droughts to increased levels of CO2? Which means...that if droughts happened in the past when CO2 levels were lower. And no droughts occurred at times when the CO2 levels were MUCH higher than today. And of course visa versa... So that would mean.... that CO2 really can't be blamed for any droughts that we have ever seen in the paleo record.

Do you see how deductive reasoning works there.... saigon old boy?

 

[westwall]

Sea level increase is less now than it has been for a very long time

Really? Given we know for a solid, proven undeniable fact that 97% of the worlds glaciers are in retreat and that the Arctic is in apparently terminal decline - where do you think all of that water is going if not into the oceans?

Would you be surprised to find that two major international studies recently concluded that water levels in Finland are rising at approx 3mm per year?

97% huh? The Arctic ice floats on water so that isn't going to have an affect. Greenlands ice cap will take 10,000+ years to melt at current levels and it only has 10% of the worlds ice the rest being alpine glaciers and of course the Antarctic which seems to be growing.

You claim to not be alarmist and yet here you are screaming at the top of your lungs. You guys are the boy who cried wolf on steroids...the only problem is, there is no wolf.

 

[Saigon]

The Arctic ice floats on water so that isn't going to have an affect.

This doesn't help much with glaciers - nor with the admittedly limited current melt from Western Antarctica.

And no droughts occurred at times when the CO2 levels were MUCH higher than today.

Jesus wept.....the fact that higher temperatures caused by increased CO2 CAN cause droughts does not mean ALL droughts have been caused by CO2. Honestly....is this really a difficult point to grasp?

If a car crashes because of brake failure - this does not mean ALL car crashes are caused by brake failure, does it?

Getting away from alarmist reporting then claiming that the report is conservative

The report seems to be conservative, yes. Which is probably a good thing.


I'll ignore the spamming - but please try and keep it to a minimum. The topic here is the IIPC report.

 

[westwall]

No droughts are linked to CO2 by any evidnece stronger than imagination.

Droughts are linked to rising temperatures. By all means go and check that.

The IIPC position here is very conservative in not linking drought patterns to climate change directly, but I have to say that I don't think many people in countries like Spain, Australia or India would agree.

Drought is NOT particularly common New Zealand. Certainly in regions like Marlborough and Canterbury they occur quite frequently, but this years drought, which cause NZ$2 billion worth of damage, effected areas where drought is quite unusual, such as Otago and Waikato.

In the history of the earth, drought has never been in all those places at the same time?

That is simply childish and not at all what I said - what I said was that although the earth has always had severe droughts, it is unusual that countries as diverse as India, Spain, NZ and the US would all experience historically severe droughts within a single 12 month period.

Actually when you go and look at the climate cycles they alternate from warm/wet to cold/dry. More droughts occur when the climate is cold than warm. This is covered in an excellent book by Will Slatyer called Life/Death Rhythms of Ancient Empires - Climatic Cycles.



Life/Death Rhythms of Ancient Empires - Climatic Cycles Influence Rule of ... - Will Slatyer - Google Books

 

[westwall]

The Arctic ice floats on water so that isn't going to have an affect.

This doesn't help much with glaciers - nor with the admittedly limited current melt from Western Antarctica.

And no droughts occurred at times when the CO2 levels were MUCH higher than today.

Jesus wept.....the fact that higher temperatures caused by increased CO2 CAN cause droughts does not mean ALL droughts have been caused by CO2. Honestly....is this really a difficult point to grasp?

If a car crashes because of brake failure - this does not mean ALL car crashes are caused by brake failure, does it?


I'll ignore the spamming - but please try and keep it to a minimum. The topic here is the IIPC report.

Jesus wept indeed. The two do not correlate in the slightest. They coincide from time to time but there is ZERO correlation. Due try and learn the difference. And also do remember (because you have built an entire fraud out of it) that CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSATION anyway...

 

[Saigon]

CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSATION

Right! Now we are getting somewhere.

So then why do you claim that because rising temperatures now are linked to drought - ALL droughts must have been caused by rising temperatures?

 

[westwall]

CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSATION

Right! Now we are getting somewhere.

So then why do you claim that because rising temperatures now are linked to drought - ALL droughts must have been caused by rising temperatures?

Right on cue. Now assert that I have made the laughable claim and you come to the rescue on the white horse.

You really, really suck at this. Is your name Peter? He's the only clown I know of who painted himself into a corner so comprehensively and quickly.

 

[Saigon]

Westwall -

Now assert that I have made the laughable claim

You made it here:

And no droughts occurred at times when the CO2 levels were MUCH higher than today.

So do you now understand that because high CO2 levels and the resultant rise in temperatures CAN cause drought - that DOES NOT MEAN that ALL droughts are caused by high CO2 levels?

 

[westwall]

Westwall -

Now assert that I have made the laughable claim

You made it here:

And no droughts occurred at times when the CO2 levels were MUCH higher than today.

So do you now understand that because high CO2 levels and the resultant rise in temperatures CAN cause drought - that DOES NOT MEAN that ALL droughts are caused by high CO2 levels?

No, mr. cherry picker, I stated that droughts occurred when CO2 levels were both HIGH AND LOW.... Conversely they also DIDN'T occur when CO2 levels were both high and low. As usual, you picked the one part that supported your BS and ignored the rest. Typical.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The OP "our models predict climate changes" is the Lowbrow crap that passes for "Science"

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The Sahara was actually quite green when the pyramids were built, did Pharaoh cause Global Warming?

 

[Saigon]

I stated that droughts occurred when CO2 levels were both HIGH AND LOW.

Exactly.

So why do you assume that ALL droughts have the same cause?


Frank - please do not spam the thread with gibberish.

 

[westwall]

I stated that droughts occurred when CO2 levels were both HIGH AND LOW.

Exactly.

So why do you assume that ALL droughts have the same cause?


Frank - please do not spam the thread with gibberish.

I don't, that's your meme.

 

[SSDD]

Really? Given we know for a solid, proven undeniable fact that 97% of the worlds glaciers are in retreat and that the Arctic is in apparently terminal decline - where do you think all of that water is going if not into the oceans?

First, arctic ice is floating...melt it all and you won't get any sea level increase.. and because of the amount of air it contains, you may see some decrease if it all melted.

As to the glaciers...the fact remains that sea level rise has actually decreased over the past half century or so. Reality simply refuses to cooperate with the flawed model predictions..

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper shows sea levels around Australia have declined over the past 7000 years
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds sea level trends are biased by natural ocean oscillations
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Inconvenient Truth: Sea Level Rise has Decelerated 44% since 2005
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Sea level rise in Southwest Pacific dropped by factor of 6 during latter half of 20th century
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: NOAA 2012 report finds sea levels rising at less than half the rate claimed by the IPCC
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds sea level rise has greatly decelerated over past 10 years
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds global sea levels will rise only about 5 inches by 2100
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds sea level changes since 1950 have been due to natural variability
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds no evidence of a human influence on sea levels

Would you be surprised to find that two major international studies recently concluded that water levels in Finland are rising at approx 3mm per year?

3 whole mm per year? Are you sure finland isn't sinking? What has been the average sea level rise per year over the past 14,000 years or so? When compared to the average over that period, does 3mm sound unprecedented, unusual or frightening?

 

[SSDD]

I stated that droughts occurred when CO2 levels were both HIGH AND LOW.

Exactly.

So why do you assume that ALL droughts have the same cause?

You don't seem to be able to grasp the second part of his statement which was droughts also didn't occur when CO2 levels were high and low...a rational thinking person should be able to deduce that CO2 has nothing to do with drought.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

old news

The story is from December 2012, but I hadn't seen any threads on the topic before.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/envir...ng-off-from-debunked-global-warming-hoax.html

http://www.usmessageboard.com/polit...rming-even-the-ipcc-admits-the-jig-is-up.html

http://www.usmessageboard.com/polit...ce-20-years-of-overstated-global-warming.html

http://www.usmessageboard.com/envir...ts-who-disagree-over-1-000-a.html#post3066267

http://www.usmessageboard.com/envir...s-struggle-to-explain-warming-slowdown-4.html

http://www.usmessageboard.com/environment/279415-agw-atmospheric-physics-60.html

 

[Saigon]

Reality simply refuses to cooperate with the flawed model predictions..

They are not models. The two studies listed earlier are both based on observational data.

btw. I think you will find both melting glaciers and melting Antartic Ice are increasing the sea level - and are cited as being major causes of rising sea levels by both studies linked above.

 

[Saigon]

SSDD -

You don't seem to be able to grasp the second part of his statement which was droughts also didn't occur when CO2 levels were high and low

So you would the climate drought to be static in a high CO2 situation? Why?

 

[westwall]

SSDD -

You don't seem to be able to grasp the second part of his statement which was droughts also didn't occur when CO2 levels were high and low

So you would the climate drought to be static in a high CO2 situation? Why?

You can't help yourself can you. Why you feel the need to put words in the mouths of people that they never said is beyond my understanding. Is it only perpetrated by climatologists?