New Home Sales - NOW and BEFORE THE SHIT HIT THE FAN

[uscitizen]

Also do not forget that keeping the interest rates artificially low during the Bush years was a big factor in the housing bubble.

 

[uscitizen]

Realestate will recover when the glut is absorbed.

There is no other way arround that one.

I wish these idiots would have listened to us back when we were warning of this coming mess and all the republicans were screaming "gloom and doomers" at every logical attempt to wake them up.


Now they balme it on Obama for not being "magic" and wisking away the shit that Bush piled mile high while in office.

Yeah I recall being called a jobs doomer and such.

 

[Truthmatters]

Along with refusing to regulate the market to prevent the building mess.

 

[uscitizen]

Let the market decide.

Well it did and I wish those who said that would just enjoy what the market decided for them. They got what they asked for.

 

[Care4all]

Obviously, there was NOT enough 'smart' regulations to prevent this from happening....the loop hole was opened and these guys ran with it.....but why they did such a foolish thing, is still beyond reason to me....it was beyond reckless and had no long term business sense imho?

 

[goldcatt]

Obviously, there was NOT enough 'smart' regulations to prevent this from happening....the loop hole was opened and these guys ran with it.....but why they did such a foolish thing, is still beyond reason to me....it was beyond reckless and had no long term business sense imho?

Profits are reported quarterly, and that's the Holy Grail of business. What long term business sense? Who cares? Very few US companies.

 

[The Rabbi]

Obviously, there was NOT enough 'smart' regulations to prevent this from happening....the loop hole was opened and these guys ran with it.....but why they did such a foolish thing, is still beyond reason to me....it was beyond reckless and had no long term business sense imho?

What regulation would you have suggested to prevent this? I mean, without turning the U.S. into a command economy. I know that since you're a communist that isn't a bad thing. But for the rest of us free marketeers we want to avoid that.

THis was hardly the first real estate driven recession in our history. In fact, almost every recession has been driven by bad real estate loans (see, S&L Crisis). It is a natural fact of the business cycle, in this case made worse by low real interest rates.

No, the solution is clear: let the market clean up the mess. Let the banks foreclose on all those houses. Let them sell them for pennies on the dollar to qualified people who did the right thing. Make a pledge to end the "too big to fail" mentaltiy, and future intrusions of the gov't into lending. Restore certainty to the market.
The present course of this administration will have us arguing what to do with the excess inventory of houses into 2012.

 

[Truthmatters]

Let the market decide.

Well it did and I wish those who said that would just enjoy what the market decided for them. They got what they asked for.

The market took care of its self for sure, it has no feelings, no children to support, no house payment, no need of healthcare or any other human need. When the market takes care of itself only human beings suffer not markets.

Funny how really stupid assed people cant grasp those facts.

 

[Neubarth]

The economy we had building up to this recession was false and unsustainable.

That is a misconception that is being continually bandied about as if it were true. The economy we had was quite normal for the size of the country in good economic times. Now we are in a Depression that is getting worse day after day. People do not buy when they are out of work.

 

[Care4all]

Obviously, there was NOT enough 'smart' regulations to prevent this from happening....the loop hole was opened and these guys ran with it.....but why they did such a foolish thing, is still beyond reason to me....it was beyond reckless and had no long term business sense imho?

Profits are reported quarterly, and that's the Holy Grail of business. What long term business sense? Who cares? Very few US companies.

I suppose Banking is different....but the corporations I worked for were ALWAYS concerned with long term....I not only had to give a business plan for my short term goals, but also a plan for my long term projection, 5- years out....

We knew what we were selling now and what profits we were making on it, and we planned our future...could we monopolize off of what we were selling and make even more profit on a newer improved product? Could we build proprietary features in to it, would this double our future sales? Should we dump a product due to its unprofitability or slower rate of return so that this opens up future dollars for future seasons and a better profitability item....

It took 18 months from creation of an item to actual in store delivery to a client...(mainly due to production in China and South America, with translation, local holiday periods, and transportation by ship) Yes, it would have been grand to even have USA made product to buy.

I'm certain there was some financial team that was concerned with today's stock price and immediate profit only and not the long term business....but this is NO WAY to run a company.....the Companies I worked for, kept those suckers away from us, the Developers, the Business Managers, the Designers, the Merchandisers and the Marketing Managers...

 

[Neubarth]

Realestate will recover when the glut is absorbed.

.

There is no glut of housing. There is a lack of buyers, because 33 million Americans are out of work and can not find full time employment. Give them their jobs back, and they will buy houses.

Saying that we have a glut of houses is totally wrong, just like putting the cart before the horses.

 

[boedicca]

We have in the Housing Market right now what happened to companies like Sun after the dotcom crash - a huge overhang of excess inventory.

Much of that build up in the 00s was speculative or bought by people who did not have the income to support owning a home long term. It's going to be a long time before it is recycled through the secondary market.

Another sad factor is that there is huge concentrations of this inventory in rather unappealing areas with either high unemployment (Vegas) or incredibly long commutes to employment hubs (Tracy CA). I've heard some areas are actually considering just bulldozing the empty homes in order to eliminate the blight and keep the excess inventory from further eroding home values.

Yep. That CRA was an Excellent Public Policy.

 

[Truthmatters]

How many of the houses that were repoed were spec houses?

 

[Care4all]

Realestate will recover when the glut is absorbed.

.

There is no glut of housing. There is a lack of buyers, because 33 million Americans are out of work and can not find full time employment. Give them their jobs back, and they will buy houses.

Saying that we have a glut of houses is totally wrong, just like putting the cart before the horses.

We do have a glut of houses, for the economy that we are in....

it is not some stationary number that never changes with the circumstances.

 

[boedicca]

My guess is quite a few. With 0% down mortgages that are underwater, there is no reason for a speculator holding an empty property with no rental income to not go into foreclosure. Condos in places like Vegas and Florida were targeted by speculators during the bubble.

 

[Care4all]

We have in the Housing Market right now what happened to companies like Sun after the dotcom crash - a huge overhang of excess inventory.

Much of that build up in the 00s was speculative or bought by people who did not have the income to support owning a home long term. It's going to be a long time before it is recycled through the secondary market.

Another sad factor is that there is huge concentrations of this inventory in rather unappealing areas with either high unemployment (Vegas) or incredibly long commutes to employment hubs (Tracy CA). I've heard some areas are actually considering just bulldozing the empty homes in order to eliminate the blight and keep the excess inventory from further eroding home values.

Yep. That CRA was an Excellent Public Policy.

Cra homes account for ONLY 10% of the foreclosures....

90% of the foreclosures were to people who supposedly could afford it, or the middle class.

 

[mudwhistle]

and that sector will not see a "recovery"....the housing cycle was a BUBBLE....no? An artificial bubble....there should have never been that kind of rapid building of new homes in the first place, no?

do you have statistics of what the yearly new home building was trending like BEFORE the Bubble...say mid to late 1990's?

So we need to be more like East Germany....or some 3rd world country.

We shouldn't be growing but instead stagnating.

Nice to see how you think. I'll keep it in mind.

We should grow if the growth is real and sustainable, otherwise it is not growth. Merely a borrowing against our future. At some point the bill must be paid.

Yes...by you and me.

Not by those assholes in Washington.

 

[boedicca]

Realestate will recover when the glut is absorbed.

.

There is no glut of housing. There is a lack of buyers, because 33 million Americans are out of work and can not find full time employment. Give them their jobs back, and they will buy houses.

Saying that we have a glut of houses is totally wrong, just like putting the cart before the horses.

Inventory in excess of demand, regardless of the reason, is a glut. An empty home deteriorates or is vandalized, thus losing even more value. There's also the problem of location. A lot of the build up is in areas that are probably not going to see big job creation even during a recovery. Homes were built in bad locations under bubble circumstances. That's a dislocation job growth won't cure.

 

[Truthmatters]

I live in Vegas and a HUGE part of our repo problem was specualtion.

 

[mudwhistle]

We have in the Housing Market right now what happened to companies like Sun after the dotcom crash - a huge overhang of excess inventory.

Much of that build up in the 00s was speculative or bought by people who did not have the income to support owning a home long term. It's going to be a long time before it is recycled through the secondary market.

Another sad factor is that there is huge concentrations of this inventory in rather unappealing areas with either high unemployment (Vegas) or incredibly long commutes to employment hubs (Tracy CA). I've heard some areas are actually considering just bulldozing the empty homes in order to eliminate the blight and keep the excess inventory from further eroding home values.

Yep. That CRA was an Excellent Public Policy.

Cra homes account for ONLY 10% of the foreclosures....

90% of the foreclosures were to people who supposedly could afford it, or the middle class.

Link please.