New Home Sales - NOW and BEFORE THE SHIT HIT THE FAN

[Neubarth]

NEW HOME SALES

JAN 2010 309 K
DEC 2009 342 K
NOV 2009 370 K
OCT 2009 430 K

NEW HOME SALES BEFORE THE SHIT HIT THE FAN

JAN 2006 1207 K
DEC 2005 1298 K
NOV 2005 1233 K

To offset the error that there was a sudden building boom in 2005 - 2006 that has gone bust, I went back and got the numbers of new home sales for December of 2000. It was 1030K. With a lower population and less Green Card immigration, that number would coincide with the 1200K number of 2006. (i.e. there was not an outrageous building boom in houses, just an outrageous price increase.)

There are people out there (especially in Washington) who will tell you that we are in recovery. Tell that to all of the millions who used to work new home construction. For some reason they fail to see the recovery. Maybe we should order them some rose colored glasses so everything will look cheerful????

The lies of the present administration are so powerful that the Sheeple in our society think we are in some sort of recovery. When people are losing jobs left and right, we are not in recovery. We are still in a Depression era collapsing economy. Remember, in a service sector economy (70 percent of the American economy is service sector) rising unemployment as evidenced by UI claims as filed in the individual states are a leading indicator of further collapse in the economy.

 

[Care4all]

and that sector will not see a "recovery"....the housing cycle was a BUBBLE....no? An artificial bubble....there should have never been that kind of rapid building of new homes in the first place, no?

do you have statistics of what the yearly new home building was trending like BEFORE the Bubble...say mid to late 1990's?

 

[Neubarth]

Building permits and housing sales are two totally different topics and should have been separate topics but a moderator has combined the two. The issue of two separate topics is to demonstrate a broad based collapse in the economy that has effected both industrial construction and New Home Sales.

BUILDING PERMITS NOW
JAN 2010 621k
DEC 2009 653 K

BUILDING PERMITS BEFORE THE SHIT HIT THE FAN
FEB 2006 2145 K
JAN 2006 2217 K
DEC 2005 2068K

There are people out there (especially in Washington) who will tell you that we are in recovery. Tell that to all of the millions who used to work new construction. For some reason they fail to see the recovery. Maybe we should order them some rose colored glasses so everything will look cheerful????

The lies of the present administration are so powerful that the Sheeple in our society think we are in some sort of recovery. When people are losing jobs left and right, we are not in recovery. We are still in a Depression era collapsing economy. Remember, in a service sector economy (70 percent of the American economy is service sector) rising unemployment as evidenced by UI claims as filed in the individual states are a leading indicator of further collapse in the economy.

 

[Truthmatters]

talking sense to this one will fall on deaf ears

 

[uscitizen]

The economy we had building up to this recession was false and unsustainable.

 

[goldcatt]

When people are treating their homes like a rental, moving on every three years or so, there is a problem. And that's exactly what was happening. Was a home really supposed to be traded in for a newer, bigger, more deluxe model as often as some people trade in their cars?

It's funny, the higher the purchase price on the transfers I do, the more deeds and mortgages I tend to find within the last 10 years. Good for paying a lot of interest and fees, good for keeping a lot of very lackluster real estate professionals in the business, but VERY bad personal financial strategy. Perhaps ever bigger, better and newer isn't the wisest strategy after all?

 

[uscitizen]

Are you wanting more of the same that brought us down?

 

[Neubarth]

and that sector will not see a "recovery"....the housing cycle was a BUBBLE....no? An artificial bubble....there should have never been that kind of rapid building of new homes in the first place, no?

do you have statistics of what the yearly new home building was trending like BEFORE the Bubble...say mid to late 1990's?

Stats from fifteen years ago are available on several government sites. They would reflect the demographics of the time. Going back three to five years ago (as I have done) when the population had not changed that much is viable. Going back fifteen years with a lower population would necessitate a correction for population at the very least and for economic conditions which are a difficult variable to measure because of all the government dishonesty about the economic numbers.

Remember, the housing boom was a housing price inflation bubble. The price was the issue, not the number of units being built. There was a demand for new houses when the economy had five percent unemployment. With actual unemployment running up to 25 percent in most states, the demand for houses is now waning.

 

[uscitizen]

Umm the demand drove the price up.

 

[mudwhistle]

and that sector will not see a "recovery"....the housing cycle was a BUBBLE....no? An artificial bubble....there should have never been that kind of rapid building of new homes in the first place, no?

do you have statistics of what the yearly new home building was trending like BEFORE the Bubble...say mid to late 1990's?

So we need to be more like East Germany....or some 3rd world country.

We shouldn't be growing but instead stagnating.

Nice to see how you think. I'll keep it in mind.

 

[Neubarth]

Are you wanting more of the same that brought us down?

Are you suggesting that we should stay in this miserable Depression so that there are no further bumps in the economy????

 

[uscitizen]

and that sector will not see a "recovery"....the housing cycle was a BUBBLE....no? An artificial bubble....there should have never been that kind of rapid building of new homes in the first place, no?

do you have statistics of what the yearly new home building was trending like BEFORE the Bubble...say mid to late 1990's?

So we need to be more like East Germany....or some 3rd world country.

We shouldn't be growing but instead stagnating.

Nice to see how you think. I'll keep it in mind.

We should grow if the growth is real and sustainable, otherwise it is not growth. Merely a borrowing against our future. At some point the bill must be paid.

 

[mudwhistle]

talking sense to this one will fall on deaf ears

You've never made sense so I don't know what you're talking about.

She doesn't know what she's talking about.

The only way we can get to what she wants is if the population starts shrinking instead of growing. That means people have to start dying or leaving in greater numbers then are coming in or being born.

The way they build homes in this country they aren't made to last. This isn't Europe where a home is made to last a couple of hundred years. The only way you can do that is if you make them out of stone...not wood-frame. New homes have to be made as long as they keep using the materials they use.

 

[Truthmatters]

There is no doubt the housing is overbuilt along with the commercial.

How anyone can think property speculation was not a big part of this mess is unvbelievable.

 

[uscitizen]

Are you wanting more of the same that brought us down?

Are you suggesting that we should stay in this miserable Depression so that there are no further bumps in the economy????

Not suggesting that at all. I just do not support the finiancial stupidity that the USA has indulged in in the 21'st century so far.

 

[goldcatt]

Here's a novel idea, how about finding buyers for the excess inventory on the market first - if there are enough sensible, qualified people to want cardboard McMansions crowded onto postage stamp lots - then see what we actually need before we go building more?

 

[uscitizen]

Here's a novel idea, how about finding buyers for the excess inventory on the market first - if there are enough sensible, qualified people to want cardboard McMansions crowded onto postage stamp lots - then see what we actually need before we go building more?

Yes we are getting more down to needs vs wants.

 

[Neubarth]

BUILDING PERMITS
Jan 2002 1.706M
Jan 2001 1.697M

AS YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE, BEFORE THE PRICING BUBBLE WE WERE ACTUALLY BUILDING EVEN MORE. It was not an excess of construction, but an excess in price that was the Bubble. A lot of people do not know that and are putting false information out about too many houses being built. We do not have too many houses. In fact, many families are doubling up in housing because they can not afford to buy because they do not have jobs. Funny how that works.

 

[Care4all]

and that sector will not see a "recovery"....the housing cycle was a BUBBLE....no? An artificial bubble....there should have never been that kind of rapid building of new homes in the first place, no?

do you have statistics of what the yearly new home building was trending like BEFORE the Bubble...say mid to late 1990's?

Stats from fifteen years ago are available on several government sites. They would reflect the demographics of the time. Going back three to five years ago (as I have done) when the population had not changed that much is viable. Going back fifteen years with a lower population would necessitate a correction for population at the very least and for economic conditions which are a difficult variable to measure because of all the government dishonesty about the economic numbers.

Remember, the housing boom was a housing price inflation bubble. The price was the issue, not the number of units being built. There was a demand for new houses when the economy had five percent unemployment. With actual unemployment running up to 25 percent in most states, the demand for houses is now waning.

I sort of agree....

I agree that figures would have to be adjusted for population...

I agree that there was a higher demand for homes during the boom....

I agree that everyone wants to own a home that they can afford...why pay 800 a month for rent or $1200 a month for rent, when you can be paying such for your own home via a mortgage?

The reason the prices went up, up, up IS BECAUSE of the demand going up, up, up....AND the finagling of Banks/Mortgage brokers with their creative banking, that hooked buyers with their initial LOW INTEREST rates, which allowed them to 'afford' their homes or their second mortgage on their homes.

Under no circumstance should the banks have gone willy nilly and loaned money as recklessly, nor been as creative as they were to mask their own recklessness....

If interest rates and mortgages were sold on a conventional loan basis, many people wanting a home or a second mortgage, would not have qualified for one because of the expense, or would have qualified for such.....and we would not have had all of those adjustable mortgages that came due....with no opportunity to refinance conventionally....thus not being able to now afford them.

Our government debt grew to unimaginable levels during this period, and in general....interest rates SHOULD HAVE GONE UP due to such, instead of down....this would have prevented the artificial boom in homes and their prices....imo.

 

[Truthmatters]

Realestate will recover when the glut is absorbed.

There is no other way arround that one.

I wish these idiots would have listened to us back when we were warning of this coming mess and all the republicans were screaming "gloom and doomers" at every logical attempt to wake them up.


Now they balme it on Obama for not being "magic" and wisking away the shit that Bush piled mile high while in office.