Nate Silver...Trump 54.9...Beast 45,1

[Vigilante]

Bbbut the left says Nate Silver is some icon and is never wrong

Except the OP assertion is the complete opposite of what Nate Silver's website is saying.

54.6% Clinton - 45.4% Trump

IDK there wasn't a link...regardless I don't believe any polls right now. Trump is drawing huge crowds while Shitlary can't fill a phone booth

I don't care who wins, or who people speculate will win. My point is that the OP provided a premise without links that with links showed to be the complete opposite of what he was asserting. Vigilante is a retard.

Unfortunately can't link from cell phone, but people with a 3 digit IQ can find it...leaves you out!

 

[Vigilante]

No. Fivethirtyeighty.com has Hillary at a 54.6% chance of winning. Funny how things change when you actually use links to the site.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Wrong...CNBC shows 538 just lowered it. before the debate to 51.9 TRUMP...1 minute ago!!!!

You posted this thread 31 minutes ago.

That's what it was, now it's slightly lower...hard for you to grasp?

 

[JakeStarkey]

Bbbut the left says Nate Silver is some icon and is never wrong

Except the OP assertion is the complete opposite of what Nate Silver's website is saying.

54.6% Clinton - 45.4% Trump

IDK there wasn't a link...regardless I don't believe any polls right now. Trump is drawing huge crowds while Shitlary can't fill a phone booth

I don't care who wins, or who people speculate will win. My point is that the OP provided a premise without links that with links showed to be the complete opposite of what he was asserting. Vigilante is a retard.

Unfortunately can't link from cell phone, but people with a 3 digit IQ can find it...leaves you out!

just now his site says updated 27 mins ago with HRC at 54.6

that has not changed, vigi

 

[HereWeGoAgain]

Bbbut the left says Nate Silver is some icon and is never wrong

Except the OP assertion is the complete opposite of what Nate Silver's website is saying.

54.6% Clinton - 45.4% Trump

Really?
If the election were held today, Trump would likely beat Clinton

It actually says Trump would likely win if the elections were held today.

When the other guy is in the lead polls don't matter until election day. But when your guy is in the lead what would happen today matters 50 days beforehand.

You cared enough to lie about it so.......

 

[Vigilante]

Bbbut the left says Nate Silver is some icon and is never wrong

Except the OP assertion is the complete opposite of what Nate Silver's website is saying.

54.6% Clinton - 45.4% Trump

IDK there wasn't a link...regardless I don't believe any polls right now. Trump is drawing huge crowds while Shitlary can't fill a phone booth

I don't care who wins, or who people speculate will win. My point is that the OP provided a premise without links that with links showed to be the complete opposite of what he was asserting. Vigilante is a retard.

Unfortunately can't link from cell phone, but people with a 3 digit IQ can find it...leaves you out!

just now his site says updated 27 mins ago with HRC at 54.6

that has not changed, vigi

So CNBC is wrong, and the link previously provided is wrong...lolol...you arever such a fool!

 

[JakeStarkey]

RCP just now and 538.com still 54.6 for HRC

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 46.2 44.0 Clinton +2.2

4-Way RCP Average 42.9 41.2 Clinton +1.7

Favorability Ratings -14.8 -21.8 Clinton +7.0
Betting Odds 65.0 35.0

Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 198 165 Clinton +33
No Toss Up States 272 266

 

[aaronleland]

Bbbut the left says Nate Silver is some icon and is never wrong

Except the OP assertion is the complete opposite of what Nate Silver's website is saying.

54.6% Clinton - 45.4% Trump

Really?
If the election were held today, Trump would likely beat Clinton

It actually says Trump would likely win if the elections were held today.

When the other guy is in the lead polls don't matter until election day. But when your guy is in the lead what would happen today matters 50 days beforehand.

You cared enough to lie about it so.......

No. Read the OP, and even his follow up posts. Vigilante isn't even pretending that's what he meant. He's defending it till this minute.

 

[Fueri]

Bbbut the left says Nate Silver is some icon and is never wrong

Except the OP assertion is the complete opposite of what Nate Silver's website is saying.

54.6% Clinton - 45.4% Trump

IDK there wasn't a link...regardless I don't believe any polls right now. Trump is drawing huge crowds while Shitlary can't fill a phone booth

I don't care who wins, or who people speculate will win. My point is that the OP provided a premise without links that with links showed to be the complete opposite of what he was asserting. Vigilante is a retard.

Unfortunately can't link from cell phone, but people with a 3 digit IQ can find it...leaves you out!

just now his site says updated 27 mins ago with HRC at 54.6

that has not changed, vigi

he's likely referencing the now poll, which showed those numbers this morning, was revised a few minutes ago (which it shows right at the top) and still shows trump with a narrow lead.....

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

 

[SassyIrishLass]

RCP just now and 538.com still 54.6 for HRC

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 46.2 44.0 Clinton +2.2

4-Way RCP Average 42.9 41.2 Clinton +1.7

Favorability Ratings -14.8 -21.8 Clinton +7.0
Betting Odds 65.0 35.0

Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 198 165 Clinton +33
No Toss Up States 272 266

Real Clear is a joke, you can't go by their averages they keep removing polls and adding polls and some of them are old polls

 

[JakeStarkey]

Vigilante is defending his lie though 538 has not changed

 

[Vigilante]

Yes I am, later i,ll put up the screen shot from computer!

 

[JakeStarkey]

RCP just now and 538.com still 54.6 for HRC

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 46.2 44.0 Clinton +2.2

4-Way RCP Average 42.9 41.2 Clinton +1.7

Favorability Ratings -14.8 -21.8 Clinton +7.0
Betting Odds 65.0 35.0

Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 198 165 Clinton +33
No Toss Up States 272 266

Real Clear is a joke, you can't go by their averages they keep removing polls and adding polls and some of them are old polls

We know you don't understand averaging.

 

[JakeStarkey]

the now has Trump at 51 something http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

the forecast has Hillary at 54.6 http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast-analysis

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Right now 538 says it's 50/50

 

[JakeStarkey]

the now says 49.7 to 50.3

 

[Vigilante]

Hannity just announced 54.9 Trump!

 

[JakeStarkey]

Hannity just announced 54.9 Trump!

sure he did nothing online

 

[Fueri]

the now has Trump at 51 something http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

the forecast has Hillary at 54.6 http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast-analysis

exactly.

the now poll is if the election were held today.

the polls only forecast extrapolates forward to election.

the polls plus factors in the economy and other stuff and shows it as HRC 52.9 - DJT 47.1

here's now the three models work:


A User’s Guide To FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 General Election Forecast

Three versions of the model

• Polls-plus: Combines polls with an economic index. Since the economic index implies that this election should be a tossup, it assumes the race will tighten somewhat.
• Polls-only: A simpler, what-you-see-is-what-you-get version of the model. It assumes current polls reflect the best forecast for November, although with a lot of uncertainty.
• Now-cast: A projection of what would happen in a hypothetical election held today. Much more aggressive than the other models.

Differences between polls-plus and polls-only

• Polls-plus combines polls with an economic index; polls-only does not.
• Polls-plus will include a convention bounce adjustment; polls-only will not.
• Polls-plus starts by assuming that likely voter polls are better for Republicans; polls-only makes no such assumption. Both models revise this assumption as more data becomes available.
• Polls-plus subtracts points from third-party candidates early in the race, while polls-only does not.
• Both models employ a regression that is based on demographics and past voting history. But polls-only weights the regression less and places less emphasis on past voting history.
• Polls-only accounts for more uncertainty than polls-plus.
• Polls-plus and polls-only will tend to converge as the election approaches.

Differences between polls-only and now-cast

• The now-cast is basically the polls-only model, except that we lie to our computer and tell it the election is today.
• As a result, the now-cast is very aggressive. It’s much more confident than polls-plus or polls-only; it weights recent polls more heavily and is more aggressive in calculating a trend line.
• There could be some big differences around the conventions. The polls-only and polls-plus models discount polls taken just after the conventions, whereas the now-cast will work to quickly capture the convention bounce.

 

[Vigilante]

Hannity just announced 54.9 Trump!

sure he did nothing online

Sorry, knowing you only listen to Msddow!

 

[JakeStarkey]

Hannity just announced 54.9 Trump!

sure he did nothing online

Sorry, knowing you only listen to Msddow!

I checked. He has nothing online.