Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[Valerie]

Mitt has a defeated look about him. It just seems like he is not confident at all, hope that look is genuine.

Whatever happens, I think it's good we should have a record voter turn-out! Mitt put up as good a fight as any of the other GOP contenders could have ever hoped for.

 

[decker]

Mitt has a defeated look about him. It just seems like he is not confident at all, hope that look is genuine.

Whatever happens, I think it's good we should have a record voter turn-out! Mitt put up as good a fight as any of the other GOP contenders could have ever hoped for.

well i hope we have good turn out for democray sake

 

[decker]

Mitt has a defeated look about him. It just seems like he is not confident at all, hope that look is genuine.

well i don,t think we can tell either way. he like obama is nervious as i doubt neither man is sure if he win or not

the networks at 7pm us time will start telling us from then on who will be in white house for next four years.

 

[Conservative]

could a mod merge this with one of the other 87 'Nate gives Obama a <insert number of the day> chance of winning' threads, please?

 

[Liability]

Oversampling Dems is a polite way of counting the non-living, the most dependable Dem voting bloc

You are an idiot.

This is not a poll, it is a confidence interval (PROBABILITY) based off of all of the state polls..

Which are conducted by various right/left/un biased groups, NOT Nate Silver himself.

And the polls (mostly left wing) all seem to have a problem with the over-sampling of Dims.

Assessing their conclusions as a valid predictor of the eventual outcome of actual voting in any poll-sampled state REQUIRES that one also make the assumption that the voter turnout is going to mirror the sample in the polling.

Yeah. That's laughable.

And it follows that all Nate is doing is basing some theoretical conclusion (an alleged statistical probability) on dubious data. GiGo. Nate seems not to grasp that. Evidently, neither do you.

 

[Liability]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Who is Nate Silver

After today, people are going to be asking, "Who is Mitt Romney?"

Because after today, people will want to know a bit more about our President-Elect.

 

[decker]

could a mod merge this with one of the other 87 'Nate gives Obama a <insert number of the day> chance of winning' threads, please?

in end nate got it wrong big time in general election in uk and midterm in us

so i don,t think we can look to one pollster as a guide

in end poll tonight from networks is most important one

 

[deaddogseye]

could a mod merge this with one of the other 87 'Nate gives Obama a <insert number of the day> chance of winning' threads, please?

in end nate got it wrong big time in general election in uk and midterm in us

so i don,t think we can look to one pollster as a guide

in end poll tonight from networks is most important one

you are right about the midterms for sure -- he wasnt even close AND he missed three senate races as well which is a real lot. its a big illusion -- picking 48 out of 50 states when anyone could predict 46 of them -- BFD

bottom line he really isnt very good and there isnt really much to what he does -- he just dresses it up to make it look like there is a lot to it and the media buys in because it can help be filler for their stories. Basically he is a snake oil salesman and of course a consultant to the obama campaign which he conveniently neglects to tell anyone.

at least the various pundits are openly identified with one side or the other and you can filter what they say accordingly. this guy tries to act like he isnt and hes just a dishonest person.

 

[Zander]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

nate's numbers seem to match the realclearpolitics average.

can both nate and rcp's poll of poll's be wrong?

and only the outliers at rasmussen and gallup be correct?

that is the question of the day.

if you're a stats' geek.

Nate is a perfect, living example of "confirmation bias"......I have a feeling we won't be hearing about him after today!

Best of luck!

 

[Toro]

On his blog, Silver has 10-15 polls taken on Monday showing that almost all of them have moved towards Obama over the past few days based on the difference between each poll and their last poll.

 

[The Rabbi]

On his blog, Silver has 10-15 polls taken on Monday showing that almost all of them have moved towards Obama over the past few days based on the difference between each poll and their last poll.

Nothing from nothing leaves nothing.
If the polls had a margin of error of say 4 [oints and the polls showed a 2 point movement then there is no actual movement at all. They would both be within margin of error.

 

[Zander]

On his blog, Silver has 10-15 polls taken on Monday showing that almost all of them have moved towards Obama over the past few days based on the difference between each poll and their last poll.

3 reason Nate is full of shit

1) Independents will decide this election. In the final CNN poll of the campaign, Romney crushes Obama by 22 points among Independents. In every poll leading up to this election Mitt is WAY ahead with Independents. But this time it's different?

2) The Economy. It sucks. But this time is different?

3) Voter enthusiasm. Think 2010 midterms. Does anyone really think the GOP is going to stay home today? The Tea Party is dead? This time it's different?

 

[tjvh]

I guess I'll stay home... Some guy named Nate Silver has already called the election.

 

[Zander]

I guess I'll stay home... Some guy named Nate Silver has already called the election.

that's what the Dems are hoping......

 

[Cheddarmelon]

Nate Silver: NYT polling expert gives Obama a big edge on Election Day.

WOWSA!!​

Also includes his appearance on Colbert last night.

the promblem with just following that is in uk i support the lib dems and he said they would get 120 seats in general election in 2010. they lost three seats and got 59.

just saying we won,t know who right or wrong till 12.00am uk time tonight or 7..00pm us eastern time.

After Obama wins, what are you going to concern troll about?

 

[Synthaholic]

@ 1:09 pm

 

[Conservative]

could a mod please merge this with one of the other 87 Nate Silver threads? thanks.

 

[Leweman]

looks like nate silver wont be touted much in 2016

 

[Zander]

 

[LordBrownTrout]

In a couple of hours, Silver will have O with 538.