My global temperature forecast for 2020 revised downward

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Matthew, Aug 10, 2012.

  1. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    Yep, it's now appearing that we're no longer following the .13-.15c per decade trend that would take us from .545, 2010 to .67-.695 by 2020 for the global means temperature. I'm not sure what root to believe 1# energy being stored deep in oceans Andrew Dauser or 2# Spencer theory of an increase in cloud cover reflecting it back into space. I'm going to play it safe in believe that the energy that's we know of is the main player and forecast the trend closer to .62-.64 by 2020. Avg means of .63c...

    Some of the factors why I believe this
    1# Most of the warming has occurred within the Arctic with very little throughout the remainder of the world. Most of it is being caused by arctic amplification of the exposed area of arctic ocean without ice. I believe look at increase in snowfall during the winter into spring should cause that time period to remain around 13-15 million sq miles of sea ice. While the summer and fall should grow with a steeper difference. Pretty much I expect by 2015 that sea ice during the minimum to reach ~3.2 million miles for avg summer sea ice and 2.7 million miles for avg sea ice by 2020. This will lead 80% of the global temperature increase. So the increase in snow fall during the winter-spring will be a negative on the warming.

    2# By 2015-2018 period we will start tracking into the next solar minimum. This one after this weak one could put a negative effect on the climate system.

    3# Overall cool ENSO period like 1970's. This will have some effect over the next 3-8 years. .03c mean negative factor.

    I see no increase in the rate of warming...In fact I see a flatting of the slope(decreasing rate of increase). I think a case could be made that the warming could be down to around .07-.09c per year from .013-.015c, 5 years ago and .018c/year in the late 1990's. Of course we won't know for sure until the middle part of this decade based on the rules of stats. :eusa_whistle:
     
  2. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    As you can see between 1976-2004 we seen a rapid rate of warming of around .15-.2/decade. But since 2004 we have been slowing down the rate of warming in a lot of the same way as we did in 1945.

    Doesn't mean global warming is stopping as the IPCC says since 1940 that most of the warming is caused by co2. I will guess that this could be a short slow down...Either way it will take a decade to know for sure.
     

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    Last edited: Aug 10, 2012
  3. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    I think that your estimate of the amount of melt in the Arctic is far on the conservative side, and that the effects of that melt will lead to a much larger increase in the temps than predicted at present. Guess we will see.
     
  4. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    If dauser and Hansen turn out to be right. Well, you do have a point.:eusa_shhh:
     
  5. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    3.2 million square kilometers, for the 9th of August. And the curve, at present, is headed nearly straight down. Plus the effects of an Arctic storm that may increase the melting by the dispersal of the ice into smaller, easier to melt peices.
     
  6. waltky
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    waltky Wise ol' monkey Supporting Member

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    Granny says, "Dat's right we all gonna die o' thirst `cause o' dat global warmin'...
    :eusa_eh:
    Global Warming Might Threaten Water Supply
    November 11, 2012 - Global warming over the next century could significantly reduce the amount of winter snowpack in mountainous areas in the northern hemisphere, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change.
     
  7. SSDD
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    SSDD Gold Member

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    The cardinal rule in medicine is "First, do no harm." It really seems that the cardinal rule in climate science is "First, ignore the facts".

    It seems that every one of these climate of doom reports contains more qualifiers than facts. They are chock full of wiggle words like could, forsee, might, project and the ever popular (and necessary) team of model and if.

    Where (in the real world) do they get the idea that the northern hemisphere snowpack is decreasing? If the looked out the window once in a while, they might get a clue that the snowpack in the northern hemisphere is on the increase and has been for quite some time.

    Are they, in their computer labs, completely unaware that three of the four snowiest winters ever recorded have been within the past five years? Did they miss the couple of weeks two years ago when there was a measurable accumulation of snow in 49 of the 50 states simultaneously. Have they missed the record winter snowfalls across europe and eurasia?

    Here, from the global snow lab at Rutgers University:

    [​IMG]
     
  8. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    If you get a good snowpack, you get growing glaciers. Virtually all of our glaciers are shrinking. Snowfall and snowpack are two differant things. In the Cascades, we have had many good years of snowfall, only to see it melt off earlier in the spring every decade.

    A warmer atmosphere holds more water, and the areas that get snow in the winter will get more snow, but at a warmer temperature.

    ESRL/GMD Barrow Snowmelt Date

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    Abstract


    Analyses of streamflow, snow mass temperature, and precipitation in snowmelt-dominated river basins in the western United States indicate an advance in the timing of peak spring season flows over the past 50 years. Warm temperature spells in spring have occurred much earlier in recent years, which explains in part the trend in the timing of the spring peak flow. In addition, a decrease in snow water equivalent and a general increase in winter precipitation are evident for many stations in the western United States. It appears that in recent decades more of the precipitation is coming as rain rather than snow. The trends are strongest at lower elevations and in the Pacific Northwest region, where winter temperatures are closer to the melting point; it appears that in this region in particular, modest shifts in temperature are capable of forcing large shifts in basin hydrologic response. It is speculated that these trends could be potentially a manifestation of the general global warming trend in recent decades and also due to enhanced ENSO activity. The observed trends in hydroclimatology over the western United States can have significant impacts on water resources planning and management.
     
  9. SSDD
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    SSDD Gold Member

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    What is it that you want? Do you wish to remain in the presently chilly global conditions forever? Are you wishing for stagnant, never changing climate? Or maybe go back to the good old days of glaciers covering half of the northern hemisphere?

    What exactly do you want? Personally, I would like to see temps akin to the holocene maximum come around. If we were beings that lived for eons, we would, at present be anticipating spring and summer after an altogether to long winter.

    Exactly what is it that makes you believe that the earth is presently at the ideal temperature and what makes you believe that we have any control whatsoever over the temperature the earth is going to be?
     
  10. PLYMCO_PILGRIM
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    PLYMCO_PILGRIM Gold Member

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    :lol: The meterologists can't even predict the temperatures next week, never mind next year or 20 years from now.

    Who are you the great profit of weather?

    I don't know if the changes in our climate are nautrual or made by man but I do know that you can't predict what you are trying to. Scientists who did so back in the early 90's about today were wrong.
     

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