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America’s young voters are no longer reliably Democratic and should be considered “swing voters,” a new poll by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics finds.
Among 18-to-29-year-olds who say they will “definitely” vote in the Nov. 4 midterms, 51 percent prefer a Republican-led Congress, while only 47 percent want the Democrats in charge, the survey finds.
That’s a significant reversal from just before the last midterm election in 2010, when young voters told the survey they preferred Democrats by a spread of 12 points.
“The youth vote is very much up for grabs politically,” said John Della Volpe, the institute’s polling director, in a press conference Wednesday.
This poses a huge challenge for Democrats, who face the very real possibility of losing control of the Senate in Tuesday’s election. Their prospects of holding that chamber depend on how well they can turn out their base: women, minorities, and young people.
The youth vote was typically a swing vote when the institute first began polling in 2000. But Hurricane Katrina, two wars, and the advent of social media moved them into the Democrat camp, according to the survey’s analysis.
For the past decade, Democrats have successfully mined the so-called “millennials” – America’s largest generation. These voters sparkled for Democrats, favoring them by 12 percent in 2004, 22 percent in 2006, and a huge 30 percent in 2008, when they elected President Obama. The double-digit advantage for Democrats continued in the midterms of 2010 and the presidential election two years later.
Now, that luster is gone. Millennials say they are as disenchanted with President Obama as everyone else. Only 43 percent of young people approve of the job the president is doing, according to the Harvard survey – the same percentage in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll of American adults.
“Millennials are no longer the political outliers they once were,” said Mr. Della Volpe.
This cohort is losing another distinctive feature, Della Volpe points out. It doesn’t look like they’re quite the “post-racial” generation that people thought. The Harvard survey, conducted with more than 2,000 young people in English and Spanish, found deep racial and ethnic gaps in political preferences.
For instance, 31 percent of young whites approve of the president’s job performance, while 78 percent of young African-Americans think he’s doing well on the job.
Hispanics fall in the middle, with 49 percent approving of his performance. But that’s a big drop-off from 60 percent in April and an 81 percent approval rating in November of 2009, when expectations for immigration reform ran high.
Overall, 26 percent of the young people surveyed say they plan to vote next week – about the same as in the 2010 midterm, when 24 percent actually did vote. And, as in general polling, it’s the Republican millennials who are revved up. They lead Democrats by 12 points when asked if they “definitely” plan to vote.
Still, Republicans have their work cut out for them with young voters.
“While Democrats clearly perform less well in the eyes of young voters,” the survey’s summary reads, “there are few signs of Republicans gaining ground.” Less than 1 in 4 approve of the GOP’s performance in Congress.
As with the overall electorate, young Americans are disgruntled with both parties. Interestingly, their approach to fixing things is less likely to be through the ballot box than through community service – one of the millennial characteristics that doesn’t seem to have changed.
Depends on whether a state has moved on from the same-sex marriage debate, actually having same-sex marriage does Republicans a favor, as Democrats like to use minority voters to win elections - Obama won the Presidential election several times by pretending to cater to minority group x or care for the 'small guy'. I don't know what Democrats in most states could honesty promise that a Republican couldn't.Young people will always trend toward the underdog. This is good news for our country. Once the youth understand they have been played by Democrats, they will vote Republican from then on.
No they vote for who they think will give them the most free shit. They didn't get their free shit.Young people will always trend toward the underdog. This is good news for our country. Once the youth understand they have been played by Democrats, they will vote Republican from then on.
Okay any political scientist will tell you politics shift at the 6 year mark of most presidents. I guarantee you the youth vote will shift democrat again in the coming years.Among 18-to-29-year-olds who say they will 'definitely' vote on Nov. 4, 51 percent prefer a Republican-led Congress, while 47 percent want the Democrats in charge, a survey by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics finds.
America’s young voters are no longer reliably Democratic and should be considered “swing voters,” a new poll by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics finds.
Among 18-to-29-year-olds who say they will “definitely” vote in the Nov. 4 midterms, 51 percent prefer a Republican-led Congress, while only 47 percent want the Democrats in charge, the survey finds.
That’s a significant reversal from just before the last midterm election in 2010, when young voters told the survey they preferred Democrats by a spread of 12 points.
“The youth vote is very much up for grabs politically,” said John Della Volpe, the institute’s polling director, in a press conference Wednesday.
This poses a huge challenge for Democrats, who face the very real possibility of losing control of the Senate in Tuesday’s election. Their prospects of holding that chamber depend on how well they can turn out their base: women, minorities, and young people.
The youth vote was typically a swing vote when the institute first began polling in 2000. But Hurricane Katrina, two wars, and the advent of social media moved them into the Democrat camp, according to the survey’s analysis.
For the past decade, Democrats have successfully mined the so-called “millennials” – America’s largest generation. These voters sparkled for Democrats, favoring them by 12 percent in 2004, 22 percent in 2006, and a huge 30 percent in 2008, when they elected President Obama. The double-digit advantage for Democrats continued in the midterms of 2010 and the presidential election two years later.
Now, that luster is gone. Millennials say they are as disenchanted with President Obama as everyone else. Only 43 percent of young people approve of the job the president is doing, according to the Harvard survey – the same percentage in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll of American adults.
“Millennials are no longer the political outliers they once were,” said Mr. Della Volpe.
This cohort is losing another distinctive feature, Della Volpe points out. It doesn’t look like they’re quite the “post-racial” generation that people thought. The Harvard survey, conducted with more than 2,000 young people in English and Spanish, found deep racial and ethnic gaps in political preferences.
For instance, 31 percent of young whites approve of the president’s job performance, while 78 percent of young African-Americans think he’s doing well on the job.
Hispanics fall in the middle, with 49 percent approving of his performance. But that’s a big drop-off from 60 percent in April and an 81 percent approval rating in November of 2009, when expectations for immigration reform ran high.
Overall, 26 percent of the young people surveyed say they plan to vote next week – about the same as in the 2010 midterm, when 24 percent actually did vote. And, as in general polling, it’s the Republican millennials who are revved up. They lead Democrats by 12 points when asked if they “definitely” plan to vote.
Still, Republicans have their work cut out for them with young voters.
“While Democrats clearly perform less well in the eyes of young voters,” the survey’s summary reads, “there are few signs of Republicans gaining ground.” Less than 1 in 4 approve of the GOP’s performance in Congress.
As with the overall electorate, young Americans are disgruntled with both parties. Interestingly, their approach to fixing things is less likely to be through the ballot box than through community service – one of the millennial characteristics that doesn’t seem to have changed.
Millennial poll Why the youth vote now leans Republican - Yahoo News
Hmm so what specific republican policies are young people missing out on? I'm dying to know.Young people will always trend toward the underdog. This is good news for our country. Once the youth understand they have been played by Democrats, they will vote Republican from then on.
Ones that produce jobs so they dont have to live in mom's basement. Like you.Hmm so what specific republican policies are young people missing out on? I'm dying to know.Young people will always trend toward the underdog. This is good news for our country. Once the youth understand they have been played by Democrats, they will vote Republican from then on.
Always looking for what the gov can do,always??!! Sometimes its not what they can do,its what they don't,the left just cant get that around their little heads!Hmm so what specific republican policies are young people missing out on? I'm dying to know.Young people will always trend toward the underdog. This is good news for our country. Once the youth understand they have been played by Democrats, they will vote Republican from then on.
Hmm so what specific republican policies are young people missing out on? I'm dying to know.
No one could ever be as manly as you, tough guy.Young people will always trend toward the underdog. This is good news for our country. Once the youth understand they have been played by Democrats, they will vote Republican from then on.
Lol um okay so why even vote republican then? You people are unbelieveable lolAlways looking for what the gov can do,always??!! Sometimes its not what they can do,its what they don't,the left just cant get that around their little heads!Hmm so what specific republican policies are young people missing out on? I'm dying to know.Young people will always trend toward the underdog. This is good news for our country. Once the youth understand they have been played by Democrats, they will vote Republican from then on.
Lol you people are so deranged. What the fuck is the point of even electing gov officials then?Hmm so what specific republican policies are young people missing out on? I'm dying to know.
You're clearly locked into the mindset of "what's the government gonna do for me?"
As lousy as conservatives are at articulating it, they believe you're better off doing for yourself.
Democrats will always have more "ideas" and "programs", but they're always government-based.
We'd be better off with proper equilibrium, but the partisan ideologues don't want to talk about that.
.
Lol you people are so deranged. What the fuck is the point of even electing gov officials then?Hmm so what specific republican policies are young people missing out on? I'm dying to know.
You're clearly locked into the mindset of "what's the government gonna do for me?"
As lousy as conservatives are at articulating it, they believe you're better off doing for yourself.
Democrats will always have more "ideas" and "programs", but they're always government-based.
We'd be better off with proper equilibrium, but the partisan ideologues don't want to talk about that.
.
Lol um okay so why even vote republican then? You people are unbelieveable lolAlways looking for what the gov can do,always??!! Sometimes its not what they can do,its what they don't,the left just cant get that around their little heads!Hmm so what specific republican policies are young people missing out on? I'm dying to know.Young people will always trend toward the underdog. This is good news for our country. Once the youth understand they have been played by Democrats, they will vote Republican from then on.
Billy Triple Zip has a hobby--Chief Troll on USMB. Almost every day he posts an obvious troll thread: Do Republicans Really Drink Children's Blood? Was Hitler a Republican? And a coming favorite, Will The Catholic Church Canonize Obama In His Lifetime?Lol you people are so deranged. What the fuck is the point of even electing gov officials then?Hmm so what specific republican policies are young people missing out on? I'm dying to know.
You're clearly locked into the mindset of "what's the government gonna do for me?"
As lousy as conservatives are at articulating it, they believe you're better off doing for yourself.
Democrats will always have more "ideas" and "programs", but they're always government-based.
We'd be better off with proper equilibrium, but the partisan ideologues don't want to talk about that.
.
Another great example.
Partisan ideologues like you live in a binary, black & white world.
All government or no government.
Finding equilibrium is a little more complicated, yes, but it would be worth it.
We just need partisan ideologues like you to find another hobby.
.
