Median Ocean Temps have dropped 1 Deg C

[Billy_Bob]

Median Ocean Temps have dropped 1 Deg C

From the "Its the sun, stupid" department; A German paper is out showing how fast we are already cooling globally. The IPWP (median) oceans have lost 1 deg C since 2013 according to the ARGO buoys.

The average temperature of the IPWP has decreased by about 1°C since spring of 2013. Since the beginning of the Argo measurements in 2004, it has never been cooler than today. Note that this refers to a huge water mass of about 16 million cubic kilometers. For comparison: The energy that has been released from here corresponds to the amount that the whole earth receives from the sun by the solar radiation flux during a 4 days period. This huge amount of energy increases the global surface temperature which leads to increased radiation of a good part of the heat into space. An El Nino in the end therefore generates a heat loss of the system earth. The current pulse of warming is partly a consequence of this natural process. The recent temperature records therefore are more related to the natural ENSO cycle than to global warming of probably about 0.01° C / year by the effect of moderate greenhouse gases, when allowing for a reduced CO2 climate sensitivity.

As the El Niño continues to die this massive amount of heat loss is going to become very apparent. The flip to La Niña is going to be massive. There will be whole lot of gnashing of teeth from alarmist by mid summer as most of the western states, mid-west, and central planes are now predicted to be BELOW NORMAL temps with an early onset of the coming winter.

Time to get out the popcorn as the cooling cycle is about to go into full swing.. The sun is now going quiet, low solar wind, and low polar magnetism... were in for one hell of a cooling cycle.

 

[Billy_Bob]

This La Niña is going to be a big one.. The amassing cold pool is massive.. And absolutely no sign of Trenberth's missing heat...

 

[Billy_Bob]

One more inconvenient data set that MUST BE ADJUSTED AND HOMOGENIZED! /Sarc

The data clearly shows that all the warming, we have seen to date, was due to natural variation and the ENSO cycle. This one is going to leave a big mark!

And this one is from German Scientist's... Ones who will be flogged for telling the truth.. I wonder how Merkel is handling this bit of bad alarmist news?

 

[Billy_Bob]

The heart of the EU socialist green agenda is breaking apart... The AGW agenda is truly dieing a sorted death.

 

[Old Rocks]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 1.5ºC
Niño 3.4 1.8ºC
Niño 3 1.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.2ºC

The El Nino, as of last Monday, at 1.8. That is still a very strong El Nino. And we will feel that effect to three months from now. As in June.

The official forecast has the El Nino ending in June of this year. However, the CFSv2 forecast has it continuing through December, and on the increase at that point. Yes, going to be an interesting year in many respects.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Once again Old Fraud fails to read the links provided or go find the paper cited.. And Once again he posts up huge drivel that focuses on a very narrow band of ocean that is warm and ignores the data which was shown...

In other words he has missed the point and posts up shit that has very little to do with the predictions of not only German climate scientists but a world wide growing group of scientists who dont believe the AGW hype.

 

[Billy_Bob]

The Farmers Almanac, with its 86% correct predictions over 178 years, are in line with the German scientist projections.

NASA and NOAA however are full blow AGW hype "were gonna burn" this year..

We will see....

 

[Crick]

86% correct predictions? Bullshit

Probing Question: Is the Farmers' Almanac accurate? | Penn State University

 

[mamooth]

To the "It's the sun!" loons ...

If the earth's climate is so sensitive to tiny shifts in solar energy, then why doesn't the earth freeze each year at aphelion, when it's getting a relatively massive 6.5% less solar energy than it got at perihelion?

Oh, Fritz Vahrenholt is a Shell employee who has spent his life crusading against wind power. And he's spent years predicting the imminent ice age that never seems to arrive.

 

[Billy_Bob]

The change is rather dramatic and fast.. by end of May first part of June the flip to cold will be in full process.. When it happens it will be a dramatic change in air mass temp above the US.

 

[Crick]

That sound almost exactly like the NWS ENSO diagnostic discussion page at Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion which reads:

Synopsis:A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with close to a 50 percent chance for La Niña conditions to develop by the fall.

Who knows, for once, you might actually be right! That'll be novel. Perhaps you should film it.

 

[edthecynic]

To the "It's the sun!" loons ...

If the earth's climate is so sensitive to tiny shifts in solar energy, then why doesn't the earth freeze each year at aphelion, when it's getting a relatively massive 6.5% less solar energy than it got at perihelion?

Oh, Fritz Vahrenholt is a Shell employee who has spent his life crusading against wind power. And he's spent years predicting the imminent ice age that never seems to arrive.

The deniers have been predicting the coming Ice Age since the 1970s.

 

[Crick]

I found an interesting comment in the OP:

As an aside: David Evans and I are always harping on about the importance of water vapor, but this graph doesn’t necessarily tell us as much as you might think, because it’s not the total water vapor that matters, it’s only the layer at the top, where the water vapor emits freely to space (that’s from the WVEL, the water vapor emissions layer).
***********************************************************************
The layer at the top. Where the water vapor emits freely to space.

From Wikipedia's article on water vapor:

Water in Earth's atmosphere is not merely below its boiling point (100 °C), but at altitude it goes below its freezing point (0 °C), due to water's highly polar attraction. When combined with its quantity, water vapor then has a relevant dew pointand frost point, unlike e. g., carbon dioxide and methane. Water vapor thus has a scale height a fraction of that of the bulk atmosphere,[18][19][20] as the water condenses and exits, primarily in the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere.[21] Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane, being non-polar, rise above water vapor. The absorption and emission of both compounds contribute to Earth's emission to space, and thus the planetary greenhouse effect.[19][22][23] This greenhouse forcing is directly observable, via distinct spectral features versus water vapor, and observed to be rising with rising CO2 levels.[24] Conversely, adding water vapor at high altitudes has a disproportionate impact, which is why methane (rising, then oxidizing to CO2 and two water molecules) and jet traffic[25][26][27] have disproportionately high warming effects.
********************************************************************************************

Virtually NONE of the Earth's thermal IR emissions come from water vapor molecules.

 

[mamooth]

The IPWP (median) oceans have lost 1 deg C since 2013 according to the ARGO buoys.

Nobody except Billy here puts any special focus to the IPWP, a small piece of the world's oceans. Yep, the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool is much cooler than normal. The rest of the oceans are very warm. Billy is cherrypicking majorly.

As to why Billy calls the IPWP "median", I have no idea. It's just some of his weird babbling. Nobody else anywhere uses that terminology.

And as to the El Nino forecast, everyone is basically pointing out it will be tapering off, but the model average points to neutral conditions at year's end, not a La Nina. A few outliers say La Nina, and a single model even says a big one, but that's not the consensus. And air temperatures still lag the ENSO state by 3-6 months, so air temperatures remain hot for the year no matter what.

 

[jc456]

To the "It's the sun!" loons ...

If the earth's climate is so sensitive to tiny shifts in solar energy, then why doesn't the earth freeze each year at aphelion, when it's getting a relatively massive 6.5% less solar energy than it got at perihelion?

Oh, Fritz Vahrenholt is a Shell employee who has spent his life crusading against wind power. And he's spent years predicting the imminent ice age that never seems to arrive.

The deniers have been predicting the coming Ice Age since the 1970s.

dude, we are still in an ice age. What the hell do you think sits at the poles?

 

[Crick]

ice age

• Examples
• Word Origin

See more synonyms on Thesaurus.com
noun, Geology.
1.
(often initial capital letters) the glacial epoch, especially thePleistocene Epoch.


The Pleistocene (/ˈplaɪstəˌsiːn, -toʊ-/;[1] symbol PS[2]) is the geological epoch which lasted from about 2,588,000 to 11,700 years ago, spanning the world's recent period of repeated glaciations.

The most recent ice age ended 11,700 years ago.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Alarmist meme DEAD!!

 

[Crick]

Alarmist meme DEAD!!

The description accompanying your graphic

Figure 3 illustrates the 6-month changes in global surface temperature anomalies over the term of the NOAA land+ocean surface temperature data. The recent 6-month change (February 2016 minus September 2015) in surface temperature anomalies (+0.29 deg C) has been exceeded many times in the past.

More Alarmist Nonsense with the Release of the Redundant* NOAA Global Temperature Data for February 2016

So, what "alarmist meme" do you think this has slain?