Markets might drop by 50%?

[Toro]

Eventually the market's gonna crash. It's inevitable as the valueless currency we use can't be sustained forever. At some point, like other countries (most recently Argentina,) we too will default on our debt and the house of cards will come crashing down. I don't know what's gonna happen then, but as the line in "Ultraviolet" went, "What would have happened if I didn't pass one of these tests?" - "Nothing good."

Those may all happen, but they may happen 100 years from now. In the meantime, people huddled in their bunkers waiting for such a crash will all be dead and have missed great investment opportunities.

 

[saveliberty]

Managing market risk is as important as recognizing investment opportunity.

 

[jwoodie]

The market is currently buoyed by prospects for a GOP Senate. If that fails to materialize, the crash will come sooner. If it does materialize, the crash will come later: 2017 if Hillary wins, 2018 if she doesn't.

 

[OnePercenter]

I believe the market is overvalued, but a 50% drop is highly unlikely. I'd be more concerned with the stability of the dollar.

The market is investors betting against each other. How do you place value on that?

 

[Mr Liberty]

The market is currently buoyed by prospects for a GOP Senate. If that fails to materialize, the crash will come sooner. If it does materialize, the crash will come later: 2017 if Hillary wins, 2018 if she doesn't.

Elections don't cause crashes. The market may go up or down a little as it always does on news; however, it does not crash because a Democrat is elected.

 

[SteadyMercury]

In the meantime, people huddled in their bunkers waiting for such a crash will all be dead and have missed great investment opportunities.

I suspect the overwhelming majority of the people singing the non-stop "market gonna crash" song don't have much money to invest anyway.

 

[saveliberty]

I'm completely happy with an average 8.5% annual return and only three weeks exposure to the stock market. I just play the big drops and get out with a 2 or 3% gain each time.

 

[Zander]

I'm completely happy with an average 8.5% annual return and only three weeks exposure to the stock market. I just play the big drops and get out with a 2 or 3% gain each time.

Until you don't.

 

[saveliberty]

Five consecutive years and I'm on pace to beat my average by quite a bit this year.

 

[rightwinger]

It s more likely for the market to go up 50%

 

[KissMy]

The stock market is based on after tax corporate profits. Since the 2001 Bush's tax cuts & loopholes, the tax system heavily subsidizes big corporations by burdening workers. There is little chance corp profits will decline much crashing the market. The market may correct a bit if profits drop, but it wont be very far because there is currently no stock bubble.

Since Bush's tax cuts. the loopholes have cut the effective corporate taxes to 12.6% That is less than payroll tax deductions from their paycheck before income tax pay deductions on minimum wage workers. Middle class pays almost half their earnings in those tax pay deductions. This tax burden makes US workers very expensive to employ & gives corporations a huge tax cut. Corps fire all the tax burdened expensive workers & employ the low tax cheap foreigners. Only a tax overhaul will lower worker taxes, subsidized corp profits & stock prices while bringing more high paying jobs back to the USA.

Subsidized Corp After Tax Profits VS Jobs

There is currently no stock market bubble. The market is currently undervalued & more likely to go up than down.

Subsidized Corp After Tax Profits VS Stock Prices

 

[SteadyMercury]

Five consecutive years and I'm on pace to beat my average by quite a bit this year.

Five consecutive years of success during one of the greatest five year bull market runs in history? You could have had great success plopping all your money in a total market index fund, and you'd have swept up some dividends as well.

 

[saveliberty]

Point is your money is at risk everyday, mine was only three weeks a year.

 

[OnePercenter]

The market is a large financial bubble that can burst at any time. There are a handful of people that control the market to make sure that doesn't happen. Predicting what these people do makes you LOT'S of $$$$.

 

[KissMy]

Q3 GDP will be huge & will beat the street. Sell on that news. The election turmoil & QE cuts may ding Q4 GDP & corp profits. That may cause a 10%+ market correction. Keep eyes on GDP, Earnings, Fed & congress for Q4.

Q2 GDP was heavily impacted by bad weather. Construction in the Midwest was up 28%, the Northeast was up 14%. But that was driven negative by a 30% drop in the South due to very wet conditions. That has built up huge pent-up demand in the South that builders will currently will not be able to meet. Construction hiring & spending will have to explode. Get ready for a hot Q3 GDP & earnings report sending the market soaring. Then sell, sell, sell because QE is supposed to end in October.

 

[Zander]

Five consecutive years and I'm on pace to beat my average by quite a bit this year.

Everyone is a genius in a bull market.

 

[SteadyMercury]

Point is your money is at risk everyday, mine was only three weeks a year.

Those three weeks have the same chances of positive/negative returns as any other days of year.

Everyone who yanks their money in and out thinks they are smart enough to beat the market, but studies show most do not and you've obviously got a sample bias having brilliantly pulled in and out during a five year strong bull market.

 

[Zander]

The stock market is based on after tax corporate profits. Since the 2001 Bush's tax cuts & loopholes, the tax system heavily subsidizes big corporations by burdening workers. There is little chance corp profits will decline much crashing the market. The market may correct a bit if profits drop, but it wont be very far because there is currently no stock bubble.

Since Bush's tax cuts. the loopholes have cut the effective corporate taxes to 12.6% That is less than payroll tax deductions from their paycheck before income tax pay deductions on minimum wage workers. Middle class pays almost half their earnings in those tax pay deductions. This tax burden makes US workers very expensive to employ & gives corporations a huge tax cut. Corps fire all the tax burdened expensive workers & employ the low tax cheap foreigners. Only a tax overhaul will lower worker taxes, subsidized corp profits & stock prices while bringing more high paying jobs back to the USA.

Subsidized Corp After Tax Profits VS Jobs

There is currently no stock market bubble. The market is currently undervalued & more likely to go up than down.

Subsidized Corp After Tax Profits VS Stock Prices

Thanks for the laugh!!

 

[saveliberty]

Point is your money is at risk everyday, mine was only three weeks a year.

Those three weeks have the same chances of positive/negative returns as any other days of year.

Everyone who yanks their money in and out thinks they are smart enough to beat the market, but studies show most do not and you've obviously got a sample bias having brilliantly pulled in and out during a five year strong bull market.

Not everyone has the same investment objectives. Some want to maximize returns, some look for an income stream and others good return with more moderate risk.

As far as yanking money in and out of the market, brokerage houses do it everyday in fractions of a second trades. These same people tell you to let it ride. Might want to think about that.

 

[SteadyMercury]

As far as yanking money in and out of the market, brokerage houses do it everyday in fractions of a second trades. These same people tell you to let it ride. Might want to think about that.

What on earth are you talking about? Brokerage houses don't tell me to let it ride, they only make money if I trade.