Make a prediction (economy)

[SAYIT]

More whining. You sound like someone who missed the last few years of market gains. I'm really sorry 'bout that ... wait ... no I'm not. Your bad.

Lol.. you just exposed yourself. Liberal. What abour that middle class? How about we cut through the bullshit and get straight to the point.

Interesting. Please explain how my comments led you to that conclusion (this should be good).

Sure no problem. Has the middle class shrunk under obama or increased? Answer this question and you will have your expected answer.

Definitely shrunken but your question didn't answer my question. What about my posts led you to believe I'm a liberal?

Then now you know why and who that 36% in the market is. The rich and whats left with the middle class which ok isnt many. Your not liberal just misinformed.

Really? You have absolutely no idea who has investments and you're just talking outta your ass but that's OK.

 

[SteadyMercury]

I never made that claim about the rich. You mentioned it not me. 36% of the nation are in the market.

Sure you did. You said only the rich are in the market, and that 36% of nation are in the market. Therefore 36% are rich.

high stock prices aren't really a good things because the rich are the only ones in the market.

Only 36% of the nation is in the market.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

PRINCETON, NJ -- Even as stocks have returned to lofty heights from their March 2009 lows, the percentage of Americans saying they hold individual stocks, stock mutual funds, or stocks in their 401(k) or IRA fell to 54% in April -- the lowest level since Gallup began monitoring stock ownership annually in 1999. Self-reported stock ownership has trended downward since 2007 -- before the recession and financial crisis began -- when 65% of Americans owned stocks.

but that does not seem to include large pension funds that invest for millions more in the stock market

 

[SteadyMercury]

Really? You have absolutely no idea who has investments and you're just talking outta your ass but that's OK.

Yep, he definitely one of those people where whatever pops into his head he'll type it out as fact.

Here is another recent gem from him:

While my money is safe in gold getting 3-5 times the original value

This notoriously volatile commodity becomes "safe" once natrualgas invests in it. I guess doesn't surprise me though, there is definitely a big overlap between clueless people and gold bugs.

 

[SteadyMercury]

More whining. You sound like someone who missed the last few years of market gains. I'm really sorry 'bout that ... wait ... no I'm not. Your bad.

In fact you're 100% correct. Natrualgas previously stated that for the past few years his money has been in his checking account waiting to dive into gold.

 

[Judicial review]

More whining. You sound like someone who missed the last few years of market gains. I'm really sorry 'bout that ... wait ... no I'm not. Your bad.

In fact you're 100% correct. Natrualgas previously stated that for the past few years his money has been in his checking account waiting to dive into gold.

And thats exactly where it will stay.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

And thats exactly where it will stay.

probably better to buy dividend paying stocks to try to keep up with inflation

 

[Freemason9]

Downward Spiral . . . inevitable, based upon systemic inefficiencies in this economic system.

 

[SteadyMercury]

Well hey there is a great prediction, something that is both impossible to measure and has no timeline.

Let me guess.... if by end of 2015 GDP is up, stock market is up, unemployment is down, median pay is up, etc. you'll cling to your "downward spiral" thing by saying you meant longer horizon. Or you'll say you meant just debt or whatever other measure you can find that isn't improving.

 

[Freemason9]

Well hey there is a great prediction, something that is both impossible to measure and has no timeline.

Let me guess.... if by end of 2015 GDP is up, stock market is up, unemployment is down, median pay is up, etc. you'll cling to your "downward spiral" thing by saying you meant longer horizon. Or you'll say you meant just debt or whatever other measure you can find that isn't improving.

In aggregate . . . if wealth continues to concentrate into the hands of a relatively few and wages don't increase substantially, distributable income will reduce consumer spending. That is the downward spiral, as business will react by reducing wages/workforce to maintain profit levels.

 

[SteadyMercury]

Okay so in concrete terms you are predicting a downward spiral of consumer spending over the next year?

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

In aggregate . . . if wealth continues to concentrate into the hands of a relatively few

so do you propose conservative measures to end this concentration:
1) eliminate corporate taxes to keeps jobs and corps here?
2) make unions illagal again ?
3) end liberal domination of schools
4) close borders to instantly create 10 million jobs etc etc

as typical liberal illiterate you will have no idea how to answer.

 

[Freemason9]

Okay so in concrete terms you are predicting a downward spiral of consumer spending over the next year?

Sure, in relative terms. The larger effect will be an imbalance between marginal costs of businesses as affected by sales. In gross dollars, the increase in demand will not match the increase in cost.

Then layoffs, hour reduction, and other "productivity increases."

Then less aggregate income.

Then lower sales, and less tax revenue--followed by lowered federal spending (if Republicans remain in power), and less money in circulation.

It is a downward spiral.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

less money in circulation.

.

dear, money in circulation is controlled 100% by Fed, not by anything you mentioned. As a liberal you have no shame about your ignorance.

 

[SteadyMercury]

Sure, in relative terms. The larger effect will be an imbalance between marginal costs of businesses as affected by sales. In gross dollars, the increase in demand will not match the increase in cost.

Then layoffs, hour reduction, and other "productivity increases."

Then less aggregate income.

Then lower sales, and less tax revenue--followed by lowered federal spending (if Republicans remain in power), and less money in circulation.

It is a downward spiral.

Okay so you're talking the whole shebang, since spending impacts sales which impacts production which impacts GDP etc.

So we see this in 2015?

 

[ShackledNation]

When the money expansion stops and interest rates rise, the stock market will slow down/decline. There may be some restructuring of the economy resulting in a recession, however I don't think it would be too major since there is no massive bubble in something like housing. Once we are off the caffeine high and over the slump we can get back to healthier growth.

The only caveat is banks still have all those excess reserves, which are really unprecedented. Those reserves would have the opposite effect, so it is hard to make a prediction because it hinges on if those reserves enter the economy or not.