Charles Stucker
Senior Member
- Oct 13, 2009
- 2,071
- 226
- 48
this is a variant on Pascale's Wager
The problem is that if we assign a probability to the different possibilities based on estimated human action and Solar activity, then we may decide that the expected cost/return of doing nothing is a better bet than that of taking action.
What we need most is a good model of the sun's current activity cycle; if it is about to heat up then we are probably in trouble whatever we do. If it is going to cool for the next thousand years, then we have little to worry about. It's probably out there somewhere, but the physicist with the data hasn't though of applying it to climate predictions. Once you have that in hand you can decide if Global warming is a serious threat or not. If it is a threat decisions can be made about what can be done to effectively respond. If not, then we can keep watch on the sun and return to typical environmental concerns.