Discussion in 'Environment' started by Sinatra, Oct 26, 2009.
Oh how the once- mighty Global Warming myth has fallen on hard (and cold) times!!!
Sinatra the boards resident credible climate scientist has spoken.
From Bill Steffen, WOOD-TV.
October 22nd. A weather station in Berchtesgaden National Park in Bavaria has recorded the coldest temperature ever in Germany during the month of October. The thermometer dipped to -24.3C or -11.7F. Clear skies, calm winds and fresh snow was the perfect combination for the record chill. The city of Augsburg, Germany has been 9.3 degrees colder than average during the past week. Prague in the Czech Republic is supposed to be in the mid 50s at this time of year. They had 3 days with temperatures stuck in the 30s and even picked up some snow flurries.
Watts Up With That?
Ineresting, that chart stops at 2009. A bit has happened since then. Like record ocean temperatures.
In hot water: World sets ocean temperature record (Update)
The water temperature was 72 degrees - more like Ocean City, Md., this time of year. And Ocean City's water temp hit 88 degrees, toasty even by Miami Beach standards.
Kramer, 26, who lives in the seaside town of Scarborough, said it was the first time he's ever swam so long in Maine's coastal waters.
It's not just the ocean off the Northeast coast that is super-warm this summer. July was the hottest the world's oceans have been in almost 130 years of record-keeping.
The average water temperature worldwide was 62.6 degrees, according to the National Climatic Data Center, the branch of the U.S. government that keeps world weather records. June was only slightly cooler, while August could set another record, scientists say. The previous record was set in July 1998 during a powerful El Nino.
Seems that real scientists do not agree with your analysis.
Earth Headed for Record-Setting Heat After 2009, Study Says - Bloomberg.com
Earth Headed for Record-Setting Heat After 2009, Study Says
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By John Lauerman
Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The Earth is headed for a record- setting heat wave after 2009, a team of U.K. climate experts said in the first such report based on observations from recent years.
Each year from 2010 through 2014 has at least a 50 percent chance of being warmer than 1998, the hottest on record, researchers led by Doug Smith of the Met Office, a government weather-forecasting agency based in Exeter, said today in the journal Science.
The estimate is the first stemming from data collected since 1990 on ocean temperatures, heat-trapping gases and other factors. Other forecasters used information gathered from 1960 to 1990, the researchers said. By focusing on the next few years, rather than the longer time frame in earlier studies, the new report adds urgency to the challenge of reducing emissions that heat the atmosphere, Smith said.
``Global warming is a problem that needs some action sooner rather than later,'' he said in a telephone interview on Aug. 7.
Smith said he has used the new data to estimate annual global average temperatures through 2037. The results for years beyond 2014, which haven't been published, suggest that heat records will continue to be set after that.
Cooling in the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific will forestall record annual temperatures for the next two years, Smith said. After that, global heat will resume an upward climb that has also been predicted by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he said.
The UN's World Meteorological Organization bolstered those estimates with a report saying that global surface temperatures were 1.89 degrees Celsius (3.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than average in January and 1.37 degrees above the mean in April. Extreme heat is likely to become more frequent, the UN said.
My local weatherman can't tell me with any reliability whether or not it'll rain, er...um...I mean snow, next week.
But change his name to "climatologist" and he can tell me what the weather is going to be next year!
If you changed your name to Einstien, you would still be a stupid troll.
By examining previous data, Ben Franklin made pretty shrewd deductions about weather a year in advance, which helped make Poor Richard's Almanac a hit back in the 18th century.
Climatologists predict a general climatic pattern, not a specific weather event, so the math is actually a bit more deterministic. However Solar activity is the Number One determinant in the climate and I know of no way to control solar output.
And if you had an honest independent analytical thought in your head, you'd rupture an aneurysm.
It was the primary deteminate. That was the reason for the little ice age at the Maunder Minimum. However, as continue to increase the amount of GHGs we put into the atmosphere every year, even with a decrease in the TSI, we may see an increase in global temperature.
A good example of this was in 2008, and the first months of 2009. With a decrease in the TSI, and a strong persistant La Nina, we should have some record cold years. But instead, both years ranked among the top ten warmest years recorded in the last 150 years.
The increase and decrease in the TSI is very small, a fraction of 1%, not enough to cancel out in the increase in heat retained by the atmosphere and ocean due to increased GHGs.
Separate names with a comma.