Lifting of export ban unlikely to fuel growth anytime soon by By Kevin Robinson-Avila / Journal Staf

Will US Oil export save the shale boom?

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bluewill67

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Sep 12, 2015
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The complete article is here--> Lifting of export ban unlikely to fuel growth anytime soon
"
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — The federal government is preparing to lift its ban on crude oil exports for the first time in 40 years, but most producers and industry analysts expect little benefit, at least in the short to medium term.

Congress agreed to suspend the ban in its new omnibus spending bill approved on Friday and since signed by the president. That could pave the way for the first crude exports since 1975, when the federal government originally imposed restrictions to shore up domestic supplies in response to the Arab oil embargo that decade.

U.S. producers have lobbied heavily to eliminate the ban, given that modern drilling technologies have opened up vast new U.S. crude reserves. That has pushed domestic output to its highest levels since the early 1970s, contributing to global oversupply and a fierce price war with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that began last year.

To sustain U.S. production, oil companies want to access foreign markets where prices are higher than that paid by domestic refineries.

But the battle with OPEC has sharply cut prices across the board, greatly narrowing the gap between what foreign refineries now pay for Brent oil — the international benchmark — and what domestic ones pay for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate.

The price differential has shrunk to less than $3 per barrel, down from $20 or more a few years ago, said Tom Kloza, chief petroleum analyst with the Oil Price Information Service in Maryland. As a result, the benefits for accessing foreign markets are now minimal for U.S. producers.

“At this point, with the compression of crude oil prices across the board, the prices for Brent and West Texas Intermediate are very close to one another,” Kloza said. “That’s made the advantages of eliminating the export ban a moot point for the foreseeable future.”

U.S. exports could actually aggravate the price war with OPEC, driving markets even lower, said Daniel Fine, associate director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy at the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology.

“OPEC will likely move now to retaliate against U.S. crude exports,” Fine said. “U.S. producers will be unable to compete against severe price discounting by OPEC, particularly by Saudi Arabia and Iran. No country or refiner out there is going to take U.S. oil at a premium price against discounted prices from OPEC.”
 
The complete article is here--> Lifting of export ban unlikely to fuel growth anytime soon
"
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — The federal government is preparing to lift its ban on crude oil exports for the first time in 40 years, but most producers and industry analysts expect little benefit, at least in the short to medium term.
This isn't about "short to medium term". It's about seizing overseas markets NOW in order to prepare for the "long term". The U.S. was placed behind the 8 Ball over 40 years ago. We have a lot of catching up to do. It's going to take time but we will come out on top.
 
Granny says, "Dat's right - dem Arabs is gougin' us atta gas pumps again...
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Oil ends up 3 percentt as OPEC meets; volatility hits post-Doha high
September 26, 2016 - Oil settled up 3 percent on Monday as the world's largest producers gathered in Algeria to discuss ways to support prices, with nervous trade driving volatility to its highest since a similar meeting to freeze output in April in Doha which failed.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producers led by Russia are meeting informally on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Algeria from Sept. 26-28 to tackle a crude glut that has battered prices for two years now. Key OPEC member Iran, the fourth largest crude exporter which is still trying to recapture output before Western sanctions in 2012, downplayed the chances of a deal while some OPEC members remained hopeful. "Unless there's an impressive production cut by OPEC on top of a freeze, I think we'll give back everything we've gained by the end of this week," said Tariq Zahir, an oil bear at Tyche Capital Advisors in New York.

Brent crude futures <LCOc1> settled up $1.46, or 3.2 percent, at $47.35 a barrel after trading between $45.74 and $47.66. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures <CLc1> rose $1.45, or 3.3 percent, to settle at $45.93 after a session high of $46.20 and low of $44.43. Both benchmarks moved in a near $2-band between the highs and lows, one of the widest swings in weeks.

Implied volatility, a gauge of how much oil prices move, was at its highest since April 18, when the meeting in Doha among OPEC members to discuss an output freeze ended in an impasse, leaving crude at just above $40. Scepticism about a deal being reached in Algiers had prompted money managers to cut their bullish bets on U.S. crude futures to a one-month low last week, with prices falling nearly 5 percent. Some analysts believe an output freeze will only be implemented after OPEC's all-important policy meeting beginning in Vienna on Nov. 30. Until then, the group and non-members, including No. 1 producer Russia and top oil consumer the United States, are likely to ramp up production.

OPEC pumped near a multi-year high of 33.24 million barrels per day in August, data showed. Russian production hit record highs of 11.75 million bpd last week. U.S. output has fallen this year but its oil rig count, which signals future production, has risen for 12 of the past 13 weeks. "If more Libyan and Nigerian production come online and Iranian production continues to increase, then by November the surplus could be high enough and prices low enough to encourage OPEC to act," said James Williams, analyst at WTRG Economics in London, Arkansas. A Reuters poll showing that U.S. crude stockpiles had risen by as much as 2.8 million barrels last week after three prior weeks of declines also caused concern for some market participants, analysts said.

Oil ends up 3 percentt as OPEC meets; volatility hits post-Doha high
 

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