June 3, 2014: Super Tuesday primary thread (8 states)

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Mississippi could be in play whatever the results after Tuesdays primary ... for the Senate.

.

No, it can't. The Democrats have no chance of winning that seat in November. Mississippi is like the opposite of Vermont.

That's a very blind viewpoint. Childers is very conservative, more conservative then Matheson or Manchin. Democrats get elected in Mississippi state elections all the time in the last 20 years, there was a period of time sometime around 2009 or something where democrats held a majority in both state houses. Also democrats had 3 of the 4 congressional districts just 8 years ago. The only reason we haven't seen Democratic senators is because in the last 70 years Mississippi has had 5 Senators (two of the early ones democrats, Eastland and Stennis), the only modern age Mississippi senators are Cochran, Wicker, and Loft.

They don't elect democratic presidents, but Presidential elections are not everything. The candidate is what matters.

The historical political landscape of Mississippi is irrelevant. The recent trend is heavily Republican. Democrats in statewide elections haven't stood a chance and they aren't going to win a Senate seat in an off year election with their party on the ropes.

20 years ago Republicans dominated Vermont. Look at them now.

 

[Manonthestreet]

McDaniel, Chris GOP 149,347 50%
Cochran, Thad (i) GOP 146,835 49%
98% counted he has reached magic number

 

[Nyvin]

Oh really? I didn't know what rules are in Mississippi...should be interesting no doubt!

I *think* a candidate needs to break 50% to avoid runoff. McDaniel is almost exactly at 50% right now and that's with 98% in....maybe he will win it afterall. Tonight was a surprise, never would've thought

 

[Manonthestreet]

51% is magic number?

 

[Nyvin]

51% is magic number?

no, I think it's 50%...? isn't it?

 

[Nyvin]

Can Cochran demand a recount?

 

[Manonthestreet]

Probably either could I'm guessing this close.....Politico says simple majority.....

 

[Pogo]

No, it can't. The Democrats have no chance of winning that seat in November. Mississippi is like the opposite of Vermont.

That's a very blind viewpoint. Childers is very conservative, more conservative then Matheson or Manchin. Democrats get elected in Mississippi state elections all the time in the last 20 years, there was a period of time sometime around 2009 or something where democrats held a majority in both state houses. Also democrats had 3 of the 4 congressional districts just 8 years ago. The only reason we haven't seen Democratic senators is because in the last 70 years Mississippi has had 5 Senators (two of the early ones democrats, Eastland and Stennis), the only modern age Mississippi senators are Cochran, Wicker, and Loft.

They don't elect democratic presidents, but Presidential elections are not everything. The candidate is what matters.

The historical political landscape of Mississippi is irrelevant. The recent trend is heavily Republican. Democrats in statewide elections haven't stood a chance and they aren't going to win a Senate seat in an off year election with their party on the ropes.

20 years ago Republicans dominated Vermont. Look at them now.

I get your comparison, and it's catchy, but having lived in both states I think it's one-sided. A Republican in Vermont has a considerably better outlook generally than a Dem in Mississippi.

But I tend to agree with your conclusion about the latter.

20 years ago was right about the time I lived in Vermont. I don't remember Republicans (or Democrats) "dominating". It was a blue state but not all that blue.

 

[Manonthestreet]

How can you have a county with absolutely no results so far?

 

[Statistikhengst]

My alarm clock didn't go off. Crap.

With 99% in:




That "looks" like 304,190 total votes right now, which translates exactly to:

McDaniels 49.61%
Cochran 48.83%
Carey 1.55%

current margin: Daniels +2,373 (+0.78%)


I write "looks" because the list shows no write-in votes and some of them may actually we write-ins for McDaniels or Cochran. This happens invariable in almost every election. But +0.78% is above the traditional trigger for an automatic recount.

We also don't know where the last 14 precincts are.

But right now, McDaniels has not broken the 50% mark.

As I wrote in the OP, Mississippi is notorious for getting results out late.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Oh and hey add me to your little list of who you tag on election stuff.I love nights like this.

[MENTION=48981]DiabloBlanco[/MENTION] -

will do.

 

[Statistikhengst]

 

[Statistikhengst]

In Alabama, as predicted, Gov. Bentley won his primary with 89% of the vote.

 

[Statistikhengst]

In California, incumbent Harris Kamala (D) won her primary, with 53%. So did incumbent Gov. Jerry Brown (D), with 55%, a +37% lead over his next opponent, pretty much EXACTLY what SUSA predicted in it's poll. The primary for SOS, however, is a tie, with Pete Peterson and Alex Padilla both at 29%. BTW, Nancy Pelosi won her primary with 73%.

 

[Statistikhengst]

In Iowa, Joni Ernst won the GOP Senatorial primary with 56%.

 

[Statistikhengst]

In Montana, Republican Steve Daines won his primary with 83%. Incumbent Senator John Walsh (D) won his primary with 64%. About 131,000 votes were cast in the GOP primary. About 69,000 were cast in the DEM primary.

 

[Statistikhengst]

In New Jersey, Jeff Bell won the GOP senatorial primary with 30%.

 

[jon_berzerk]

In Iowa, Joni Ernst won the GOP Senatorial primary with 56%.

Joni Ernst won the GOP Senatorial primary with 56%.

i dont follow this stuff all that much

is that the castration lady by chance

 

[Statistikhengst]

In New Mexico, Gary King won the Democratic gubernatorial primary with 34%. Incumbent Susana Martinez was unopposed for the GOP gub. ballot.

Allen Weh won the GOP senatorial primary, with 64%. Incumbent Tom Udall was unopposed for the DEM senatorial ballot.

Circa 116,000 votes were cast in the DEM gubernatorial primary.
Circa 65,000 votes were cast in the GOP senatorial primary.

Now, that can't be a 1:1 comparision, for those are two different offices, but we can often measure voter intensity for party based on overall vote count in the party.

New Mexico, in terms of voter intensity in 2014, looks like a mirror-image of Montana.

 

[Statistikhengst]

In Iowa, Joni Ernst won the GOP Senatorial primary with 56%.

Joni Ernst won the GOP Senatorial primary with 56%.

i dont follow this stuff all that much

is that the castration lady by chance

Yes, that is her.

The GOP just threw away this Senatorial race, imo.