John McCain is only 43 electoral votes away from the presidency

[Richard-H]

I think that a more accurate statement would be, "that this election seems over for Obama".

Even if the polls could be trusted, McCain leading by one percentage point in early September is a long way from being 'over'.

I would dare say that that statement is ludacrious.

Besides which, these 'poll of polls', always say 'There is no margin of error'. Do you know what that means? It means that they don't know how to calculate the margin of error in any meaningful way. Everything has a margin of error. If they'd say 'The margin of error is <0.5%', it would make sense, but saying that there is no margin of error shows that these polls are unscientific.

 

[Richard-H]

Anyone notice that the polls seem to be close to identical with the 2000 & 2004 elections? Kinda like they were using the same demographic analysis from back then.

 

[jillian]

Even if the polls could be trusted, McCain leading by one percentage point in early September is a long way from being 'over'.

I would dare say that that statement is ludacrious.

Besides which, these 'poll of polls', always say 'There is no margin of error'. Do you know what that means? It means that they don't know how to calculate the margin of error in any meaningful way. Everything has a margin of error. If they'd say 'The margin of error is <0.5%', it would make sense, but saying that there is no margin of error shows that these polls are unscientific.

they love wishful thinking.... It's actually a campaign tactic... kind of like trash talking your opponent in a basketball game and lying on the floor pretending you've been fouled til the ref calls it.

problem is these are really important issues and a really important election and they're busy trash talking ....

 

[Richard-H]

they love wishful thinking.... It's actually a campaign tactic... kind of like trash talking your opponent in a basketball game and lying on the floor pretending you've been fouled til the ref calls it.

problem is these are really important issues and a really important election and they're busy trash talking ....

Funny how wingers get nasty when challanged with facts

Wow, one percentage point ahead in early September and the election is over!

Sure, that's a real intelligent analysis!

 

[cristal]

Even if the polls could be trusted, McCain leading by one percentage point in early September is a long way from being 'over'.

I would dare say that that statement is ludacrious.

Besides which, these 'poll of polls', always say 'There is no margin of error'. Do you know what that means? It means that they don't know how to calculate the margin of error in any meaningful way. Everything has a margin of error. If they'd say 'The margin of error is <0.5%', it would make sense, but saying that there is no margin of error shows that these polls are unscientific.

Do I know what a margin of error means? You are kidding right? A margin of error is within four points of the polled numbers.

The reason why McCain's lead is such a big story, it is because Obama has been leading in the polls, until just a few days ago.

What I have noticed from the Obama supporters, is that when Obama is trailing, then they want to give the McCain supporters a lesson in poll numbers 101.

You cannot distort the truth and that is your candidate is behind in the polls. Accept it.

 

[jillian]

Funny how wingers get nasty when challanged with facts

Wow, one percentage point ahead in early September and the election is over!

Sure, that's a real intelligent analysis!

I don't even think THEY believe what they're saying... like I said, pure trash talking.... try to intimidate your adversaries, dry up the money with BS about the race being over.

Can't blame 'em for trying, I guess.

 

[SwingVoter]

Clinton's prediction of a 49 state Obama landslide seems alot more likely than any McCain victory.
!

I'll take that bet, PM me if you'll put your money where you mouse is.

 

[Silence]

Do I know what a margin of error means? You are kidding right? A margin of error is within four points of the polled numbers.

The reason why McCain's lead is such a big story, it is because Obama has been leading in the polls, until just a few days ago.

What I have noticed from the Obama supporters, is that when Obama is trailing, then they want to give the McCain supporters a lesson in poll numbers 101.

You cannot distort the truth and that is your candidate is behind in the polls. Accept it.

so McCain takes the lead FINALLY and suddenly it's all over for Obama? that's pretty fucking hysterical considering he's coming off his convention bump and none of the debates have taken place.

Most political experts agree that things will level out and go back to "normal' by next week... "normal" until this week was Obama in the lead.

 

[Isolde]

Even if the polls could be trusted, McCain leading by one percentage point in early September is a long way from being 'over'.

I would dare say that that statement is ludacrious.

Besides which, these 'poll of polls', always say 'There is no margin of error'. Do you know what that means? It means that they don't know how to calculate the margin of error in any meaningful way. Everything has a margin of error. If they'd say 'The margin of error is <0.5%', it would make sense, but saying that there is no margin of error shows that these polls are unscientific.

I hate to give advice to Obama, because he may be reading. However, in this stage of his campaign he must appeal to the independents, even if it means throwing his leftie base under the bus. He needs to focus on the issues that are important to this demographic and he must talk to them in a way that makes them want to vote for him - I don't believe negative campaigning will help him. Whoever secures the swing voters will win this election.

 

[cristal]

that's pretty fucking hysterical considering he's coming off his convention bump and none of the debates have taken place.

No, that is not fucking hysterical. It is downright fucking amazing, because "The One" is getting trounced in the polls. Talking about finally getting his comeuppance. I say, it is about time.

 

[cristal]

. Whoever secures the swing voters will win this election.

Good point. Since there a still 94 electoral votes tied up in the "swing states".

 

[Richard-H]

The poll that gives McCain a 1% lead is the poll of poll which is stated to have no margin of error. Most other polls (usually samples of less than 1000), claim to have a margin of error of less than 4%. However, anybody that actually works with statistical analysis knows that even this is false. A more correct statement would be that the is a >50%probability that the margin of error is <4%.

Pollsters are businessmen, they like to keep the costs down while over promoting their products. Polling costs money so they do as little of it as they can possibly get away with, while at the same time finding some way as make it sound like their product quality is good.

Hey, according to Republicans, the exit polls in the Florida elections were false and their sampling rate was more than 1000 per voting district. Remember how the networks declared Gore to be the winner based on exit polls?

 

[cristal]

The poll that gives McCain a 1% lead is the poll of poll which is stated to have no margin of error. Most other polls (usually samples of less than 1000), claim to have a margin of error of less than 4%. However, anybody that actually works with statistical analysis knows that even this is false. A more correct statement would be that the is a >50%probability that the margin of error is <4%.

Pollsters are businessmen, they like to keep the costs down while over promoting their products. Polling costs money so they do as little of it as they can possibly get away with, while at the same time finding some way as make it sound like their product quality is good.

Hey, according to Republicans, the exit polls in the Florida elections were false and their sampling rate was more than 1000 per voting district. Remember how the networks declared Gore to be the winner based on exit polls?

So you are saying??????

 

[Richard-H]

I'll take that bet, PM me if you'll put your money where you mouse is.

I personally don't believe than Obama will win 49 states. But I did used the word 'likely'. I'm starting to realize that probability and statistics are a bit over the heads of the wingers on this board.

Just keep using "Carl Rove mathematics' and you'll be able to sleep better at night.

 

[Richard-H]

I hate to give advice to Obama, because he may be reading. However, in this stage of his campaign he must appeal to the independents, even if it means throwing his leftie base under the bus. He needs to focus on the issues that are important to this demographic and he must talk to them in a way that makes them want to vote for him - I don't believe negative campaigning will help him. Whoever secures the swing voters will win this election.

I think that Health Care, lowered taxes on the working class, withdrawal from Iraq, energy policy and quite a few more of the issues that Obama talks about do appeal to the political middle.

Unfortunately, these are being eclipsed by 'Lipstick on a pig', 'Britney Spears commonalities' and other such weighty issues.

Right now Obama is waiting and saving his resources. He knows that the only polls that count are on election day. If nothing else Obama is smart.

 

[PeterS]

According to Clear Politics electoral map, John McCain is only 43 electoral votes away from the Presidency. Just a few days ago, Obama was leading with 217 electoral votes to John McCain 187 electoral votes. Now, John McCain has taken the lead with 227 electoral votes and just 96 votes in the "toss-up" states. Obama's electoral votes of 217, remains unchanged.

Unless there is some revelation of misdeeds from the John McCain camp, he is poised to become our 44th President.

From all intents and purpose, is appears as if Obama's reach of the brass ring, is being denied by the voters. Maybe he can try again to reclaim the Presidency in 2012. For now, the American voters seems prepared for a McCain/Palin presidency.

I say, welcome President McCain!

Why even bother going to the Polls, ya know...

 

[cristal]

Why even bother going to the Polls, ya know...

Because, we like it in writing.

 

[Silence]

No, that is not fucking hysterical. It is downright fucking amazing, because "The One" is getting trounced in the polls. Talking about finally getting his comeuppance. I say, it is about time.

trounced? wow...you really are deluded.....

I'm not sure which "poll" you're looking at and personally I don't put much weight into them anyway... I've been a registered voters since 1989 and have never once been contacted for one of these polls so I'm not even sure who they are talking to...

However, here are some polls you might or might not like

2008 Polls - Presidential Election, Latest Political - Democratic Candidate Poll - Tracking Current

9/13/08

Candidate Newsweek WA NJ NV
Pollster Newsweek Rass Marist Rass
Date 9/10-11 9/10 9/5-8 9/11
Barack Obama 46% 49% 47% 46%
John McCain 46% 47% 40% 49%

see that? the only poll McCain leads on is Rassmusean... which I've been watching and it seems to me is a right leaning organization... given they advertise for McCain on that site and all...

oh a comeupence is coming.... it'll be McCain's and I predict it'll start showing next week after a week of lies, fake outrage and downright stupid mistakes.....

 

[PeterS]

Because, we like it in writing.

According to RCP this is the fourth time McCain has taken a lead...he's lost it the previous three time. If you want to call it now go ahead but during the debates McCain is going to have to explain how Bush economics, which has done zero for the economy and less for Ohio and other battle ground states, will now, suddenly, work under McCain. I'm sure you'll buy it but will those not so ideologically pure buy it? That's the real question and one that should scare the shit out of you. Best enjoy it while you can because it won't be so enjoyable when you have to take your pig and lipstick and go home...

 

[Richard-H]

Because, we like it in writing.

If you have a keen understanding of statistics, the polls can be very helpful. Both Parties have a people with a keen understanding of statistics, so they are very useful in election strategies.

Here are the realities of this election:

McCain has to get a big increase (>5%) in turn out in white voters AND he has do do as well among white voters as Bush did in 2004. There will likely be an increase in white voters, but it's doubtful that McCAin will do as well among white voters as Bush did.

Obama has to prevent the above from happening while at the same time getting out an extremely strong turn out among African voters. This is very likely.

McCain's best hope is to turn out large numbers of white voters who'll vote against Obama based on race. This will most likely be offset by young white voters and people who are disillusioned by the Republicans.

If the changes in the White vote are a wash and Obama succeeds in getting out the Black vote, The Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana (all of which have a Black population between 25-36%) will all go to Obama. That will just be the start of an Obama landslide.

I do believe that no matter what, Texas, Arizona and Alaska will go to McCain. But not much more.

Demographically, an even smaller change in the voting pattern of womwn voters (who are the majority) towards the Dems will cause an Obama victory. The male vote will likely not change much.

There are about 6-7 likely demographic changes from the 2004 election all of which point to either and Obama victory or landslide. There is only one, which is fairly unlikely, that would cause a McCain victory.