Interesting read. I agree in that the current state of affairs are similar
-Geaux
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Interview of Eri Hotta by Jeff Baron
In Japan 1941: Countdown to Infamy, Eri Hotta tells the story of how Japan’s leaders led their country into war with the United States even though virtually the entire Japanese national security establishment expected to lose. Reading Hotta’s account, I couldn’t help but wonder: Japan 1941, North Korea 2017? The DPRK almost certainly understands that should it go to war with the United States, it would lose. But would the North Koreans do it anyway, as the Japanese did? With these questions in mind, I interviewed the author of Japan 1941 to see if she saw parallels, or found lessons to be learned, from US efforts in 1941 to change Japan’s aggressive behavior in Asia and US efforts in 2017 to change North Korean policy and action on its nuclear and missile programs.
The focus of the discussion was the danger of unintended consequences. Our conversation focused on sanctions, how the mindset that war is inevitable imparts momentum that can make that outcome more likely, and what the off-ramp from this sprint to the abyss might look like. Hotta cautioned against simplistic and overly broad comparisons between Japan 1941 and North Korea 2017. But she suggests important lessons could be applied today from our experience 75 years ago—lessons in avoiding the outcome that nobody should want. Excerpts from our interview are printed below.[1]
Sanctions and the Apocalypse
Jeff Baron: How important were sanctions in Japan’s decision to strike first against the United States, including the oil embargo imposed by the US in August 1941, at a time that Japan got 93 percent of its oil from the US?
Eri Hotta: Very important, for two reasons.
First, the oil sanctions gave the younger, mid-level military officers, those tasked with developing military plans—and the people who really thought in apocalyptic terms—the basis to argue that war with the United States was inevitable: ‘Look, the US is squeezing us dry. Each day the Navy is burning 400 tons of oil—we’ll have less tomorrow than we have today. So the time to attack is sooner rather than later—we have to be able to attack while we’re still able.’
Even though there were those who were convinced Japan would be defeated, they couldn’t turn back because the move to war was practically on autopilot by then. Well, it had the appearance of being on autopilot, though of course the Emperor could have said, ‘I’m vetoing this decision.’ But the Emperor was worried about a coup d’etat if he did that.
The second reason is that when discussing sanctions, the senior people—the decision-makers in the cabinet and military—were afraid of appearing weak and indecisive in the eyes of the younger officers.
In truth, almost nobody in the right frame of mind actually wanted to go to war. It was a bluff that gained its own momentum. But having this resolve to go to war—and that’s quite different from being prepared to go to war—having the resolve to go to war can impart its own momentum.
More here;
Japan 1941, North Korea 2017? | 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
-Geaux
===================
Interview of Eri Hotta by Jeff Baron
The focus of the discussion was the danger of unintended consequences. Our conversation focused on sanctions, how the mindset that war is inevitable imparts momentum that can make that outcome more likely, and what the off-ramp from this sprint to the abyss might look like. Hotta cautioned against simplistic and overly broad comparisons between Japan 1941 and North Korea 2017. But she suggests important lessons could be applied today from our experience 75 years ago—lessons in avoiding the outcome that nobody should want. Excerpts from our interview are printed below.[1]
Sanctions and the Apocalypse
Jeff Baron: How important were sanctions in Japan’s decision to strike first against the United States, including the oil embargo imposed by the US in August 1941, at a time that Japan got 93 percent of its oil from the US?
Eri Hotta: Very important, for two reasons.
First, the oil sanctions gave the younger, mid-level military officers, those tasked with developing military plans—and the people who really thought in apocalyptic terms—the basis to argue that war with the United States was inevitable: ‘Look, the US is squeezing us dry. Each day the Navy is burning 400 tons of oil—we’ll have less tomorrow than we have today. So the time to attack is sooner rather than later—we have to be able to attack while we’re still able.’
Even though there were those who were convinced Japan would be defeated, they couldn’t turn back because the move to war was practically on autopilot by then. Well, it had the appearance of being on autopilot, though of course the Emperor could have said, ‘I’m vetoing this decision.’ But the Emperor was worried about a coup d’etat if he did that.
The second reason is that when discussing sanctions, the senior people—the decision-makers in the cabinet and military—were afraid of appearing weak and indecisive in the eyes of the younger officers.
In truth, almost nobody in the right frame of mind actually wanted to go to war. It was a bluff that gained its own momentum. But having this resolve to go to war—and that’s quite different from being prepared to go to war—having the resolve to go to war can impart its own momentum.
More here;
Japan 1941, North Korea 2017? | 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
