Israel DM: A nuclear Iran unacceptable

[amir]

Israel's Barak tells NBC: 'A nuclear Iran is unacceptable'

In this exclusive interview, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak spoke with NBC's Richard Engel about Iran and its apparent effort to become a military power with a nuclear weapon.

By NBC News

A military strike against Iran to prevent the country from becoming a nuclear power is still very much a possibility, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told NBC News' chief foreign correspondent, Richard Engel, on Wednesday.

"A nuclear Iran is unacceptable," he said a week after world powers met with Iranian representatives in Baghdad.

"No option should be removed from the table," Barak told Engel.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Barak did not specify what would trigger military action.

“We all hope it will be solved through sanctions or diplomacy, we will be happy to wake up one morning and see it is all over. … It probably won’t happen,” Barak said, calling international talks with Iran "a ritual of self-delusion."

 

[RoccoR]

amir, et al,

The military option, no matter what anyone says, is always an option out there; whether it has a reserved space on the table or not.

Israel's Barak tells NBC: 'A nuclear Iran is unacceptable'

In this exclusive interview, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak spoke with NBC's Richard Engel about Iran and its apparent effort to become a military power with a nuclear weapon.

By NBC News

A military strike against Iran to prevent the country from becoming a nuclear power is still very much a possibility, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told NBC News' chief foreign correspondent, Richard Engel, on Wednesday.

"A nuclear Iran is unacceptable," he said a week after world powers met with Iranian representatives in Baghdad.

"No option should be removed from the table," Barak told Engel.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Barak did not specify what would trigger military action.

“We all hope it will be solved through sanctions or diplomacy, we will be happy to wake up one morning and see it is all over. … It probably won’t happen,” Barak said, calling international talks with Iran "a ritual of self-delusion."

(COMMENT)

I just hope that Israel, an undeclared nuclear power, doesn't become so afraid of Iran that it inadvertently starts a war that will not only affect the region, but the economics will beyond.

Most Respectfully,
R

 

[Sunni Man]

Everyone, whether you are for or against attacking Iran, should listen to this interview that was recently aired on 60 Minutes.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcfUQemO5WM]IRAN Ex-Mossad Chief: Attacking Iran Now Is The Stupidest Idea, Rational Regime & Diplomacy - YouTube[/ame]

 

[rhodescholar]

Israel's Barak tells NBC: 'A nuclear Iran is unacceptable'

In this exclusive interview, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak spoke with NBC's Richard Engel about Iran and its apparent effort to become a military power with a nuclear weapon.

By NBC News

A military strike against Iran to prevent the country from becoming a nuclear power is still very much a possibility, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told NBC News' chief foreign correspondent, Richard Engel, on Wednesday.

"A nuclear Iran is unacceptable," he said a week after world powers met with Iranian representatives in Baghdad.

"No option should be removed from the table," Barak told Engel.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Barak did not specify what would trigger military action.

“We all hope it will be solved through sanctions or diplomacy, we will be happy to wake up one morning and see it is all over. … It probably won’t happen,” Barak said, calling international talks with Iran "a ritual of self-delusion."

They are ALREADY nuclear, what exactly is israel/the West waiting for?

 

[rhodescholar]

Everyone, whether you are for or against attacking Iran, should listen to this interview that was recently aired on 60 Minutes.

Sunni turd, when this man was ordering the deaths of arabs and iranians, were you extolling his virtues then, too fuckface?

Or is it only when he utters phrases against netanyahu is he worth quoting, you idiot?

 

[eots]

Israel's Barak tells NBC: 'A nuclear Iran is unacceptable'

In this exclusive interview, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak spoke with NBC's Richard Engel about Iran and its apparent effort to become a military power with a nuclear weapon.

By NBC News

A military strike against Iran to prevent the country from becoming a nuclear power is still very much a possibility, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told NBC News' chief foreign correspondent, Richard Engel, on Wednesday.

"A nuclear Iran is unacceptable," he said a week after world powers met with Iranian representatives in Baghdad.

"No option should be removed from the table," Barak told Engel.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Barak did not specify what would trigger military action.

“We all hope it will be solved through sanctions or diplomacy, we will be happy to wake up one morning and see it is all over. … It probably won’t happen,” Barak said, calling international talks with Iran "a ritual of self-delusion."

Israel has no right to dictate to Iran

 

[RoccoR]

rhodescholar, et al,

I must have missed something.

They are ALREADY nuclear, what exactly is israel/the West waiting for?

(COMMENT)

Where in the world did you hear that Iran has a nuclear weapon? (I think that is what we are talking about here.)

Most Respectfully,
R

 

[rhodescholar]

Where in the world did you hear that Iran has a nuclear weapon? (I think that is what we are talking about here.)Most Respectfully,R

If you put the pieces together: many sites are unknown, thousands of spinning centrifuges, no inspections - and like pakistan, india and n korea - who all were far ahead of the clandestine services' perceived capabilities right up until they tested bombs, it is likely that iran has far more enriched uranium than even the large amount that is publicly known. They've already done extensive explosive testing, worked on triggers, shaping the uranium cones to fit on warheads, etc.

Given that as a general rule that a country is usually well ahead of where everyone else thinks they are, and that they have already gone 25 of the 26 miles needed to develop a weapon, have had years of help from n korea and aq khan, it is likely that they have already achieved the skillset/technical know how to accomplish building one.

 

[RoccoR]

rhodescholar, et al,

I understand and sympathize with your analysis; but, respectfully disagree.

This is based on the assumption that all the basic eyes and ears (intelligence systems, networks, and agencies close to the subject) have failed to assess the Iranian threat successfully and accurately.

Where in the world did you hear that Iran has a nuclear weapon? (I think that is what we are talking about here.)

If you put the pieces together: many sites are unknown, thousands of spinning centrifuges, no inspections - and like pakistan, india and n korea - who all were far ahead of the clandestine services' perceived capabilities right up until they tested bombs, it is likely that iran has far more enriched uranium than even the large amount that is publicly known. They've already done extensive explosive testing, worked on triggers, shaping the uranium cones to fit on warheads, etc.

Given that as a general rule that a country is usually well ahead of where everyone else thinks they are, and that they have already gone 25 of the 26 miles needed to develop a weapon, have had years of help from n korea and aq khan, it is likely that they have already achieved the skillset/technical know how to accomplish building one.

(COMMENT)

I do concur that Iran has the prerequisite knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSA's) to build a complete weapons system, as do many countries; however, there is no indication that they have gone there yet. They are using their KSA's as a set of bargaining chips at the P5+1 meetings to secure their expectations out of the negotiations. And it appears to be working quite well. Iran has sufficiently rattled most of the concerned nations.

But I don't believe that the entire intelligence apparatus of the western world has failed; just yet. In fact, I think that, to some degree, the Iranians are making sure that the clandestine systems are getting just enough information to neutralize the eminent threat scenario, and satisfy the major powers that immediate military action is not warranted (just yet).

There is a tendency to think that the Iranians are crazy, and possibly suicidal. But they are not. Based on their objectives, they may be acting in a very rational fashion. It may be hard to recognize, because they think differently. But I don't believe that the Iranians want a Regional War any more than any of the Persian Gulf neighbors. It is simply too dangerous for everyone and the Iranians know that they cannot achieve anything close to a "win." In fact, the Iranian risk losing everything that the Islamic Republic stands for, if hostilities breakout.

Most Respectfully,
R

 

[rhodescholar]

This is based on the assumption that all the basic eyes and ears (intelligence systems, networks, and agencies close to the subject) have failed to assess the Iranian threat successfully and accurately.

Uhhh, and you know this for a fact, how exactly? Are you going to tell us now you are head of the US NSC?

It is for quite obvious reasons why the services' would NOT have made public that a country as despised and feared as iran has attained nuclear weapons, there would be fury and outrage against every Western leader - and even in the arab world - for not stopping the program sooner.

I do concur that Iran has the prerequisite knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSA's) to build a complete weapons system, as do many countries; however, there is no indication that they have gone there yet.

A person with genuine clandestine experience would never phrase it this way; they would state: "given that most sites have not been inspected, we do not have first-hand experience on their weapons, but with their work on nuclear triggers, the massive volume of highly enriched uranium, and the existence of a blast chamber, it would appear they have either completed a weapon, or could do so quickly."

 

[amir]

rhodescholar, et al,

I understand and sympathize with your analysis; but, respectfully disagree.

This is based on the assumption that all the basic eyes and ears (intelligence systems, networks, and agencies close to the subject) have failed to assess the Iranian threat successfully and accurately.

Where in the world did you hear that Iran has a nuclear weapon? (I think that is what we are talking about here.)

If you put the pieces together: many sites are unknown, thousands of spinning centrifuges, no inspections - and like pakistan, india and n korea - who all were far ahead of the clandestine services' perceived capabilities right up until they tested bombs, it is likely that iran has far more enriched uranium than even the large amount that is publicly known. They've already done extensive explosive testing, worked on triggers, shaping the uranium cones to fit on warheads, etc.

Given that as a general rule that a country is usually well ahead of where everyone else thinks they are, and that they have already gone 25 of the 26 miles needed to develop a weapon, have had years of help from n korea and aq khan, it is likely that they have already achieved the skillset/technical know how to accomplish building one.

(COMMENT)

I do concur that Iran has the prerequisite knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSA's) to build a complete weapons system, as do many countries; however, there is no indication that they have gone there yet. They are using their KSA's as a set of bargaining chips at the P5+1 meetings to secure their expectations out of the negotiations. And it appears to be working quite well. Iran has sufficiently rattled most of the concerned nations.

But I don't believe that the entire intelligence apparatus of the western world has failed; just yet. In fact, I think that, to some degree, the Iranians are making sure that the clandestine systems are getting just enough information to neutralize the eminent threat scenario, and satisfy the major powers that immediate military action is not warranted (just yet).

There is a tendency to think that the Iranians are crazy, and possibly suicidal. But they are not. Based on their objectives, they may be acting in a very rational fashion. It may be hard to recognize, because they think differently. But I don't believe that the Iranians want a Regional War any more than any of the Persian Gulf neighbors. It is simply too dangerous for everyone and the Iranians know that they cannot achieve anything close to a "win." In fact, the Iranian risk losing everything that the Islamic Republic stands for, if hostilities breakout.

Most Respectfully,
R

***
Rocco R, few trust Iran claim that their nuclear facilities are built for peaceful purposes.
I personally believe their ambition to be a nuclear power is derived from their interest to be a regional power therefore taken seriously. I also believe they want to use it as a bargaining chip in addition to divert the average Iranian attention from the misery it's brought them in the last three decades.
Mullahs aren't that stupid. They realize in a best case scenario they can only build very few nukes and if they use them they'd be showered with hundreds.
Those who lived among or dealt with Mid Easterners can tell you they bluff all the time.
Lots and lots of big threatening words but very little action.
It's simple. An external threat unifies the population hence the regime can hang on longer.

 

[RoccoR]

rhodescholar, et al,

It's a POV, to be sure.

This is based on the assumption that all the basic eyes and ears (intelligence systems, networks, and agencies close to the subject) have failed to assess the Iranian threat successfully and accurately.

Uhhh, and you know this for a fact, how exactly? Are you going to tell us now you are head of the US NSC?

(COMMENT)

I don't happen to believe this assumption is true (as previously stated). You don't have to be a member of the clandestine services to understand how the system works. There are other disciplines (overt and covert), besides HUMINT, within intelligence that are just as productive in obtaining the necessary information to make such judgments (on this one issue).

Building and underground facility, contrary to popular belief, does not protect it completely from intelligence scrutiny. All such facilities have umbilicals that can be observed and exploited. Things have to go in and out. Basic services have to be maintained. Supplies are required and refuse disposed of on a routine schedule. All the customary utilities necessary for a surface facility are required for a subsurface counterpart.

It is for quite obvious reasons why the services' would NOT have made public that a country as despised and feared as iran has attained nuclear weapons, there would be fury and outrage against every Western leader - and even in the arab world - for not stopping the program sooner.

(COMMENT)

Building a weapon is not a real issue. There are plenty of development options related to CNWDI. It only takes about two years to independently come up with a workable design, from scratch. But having a weapon, as you correctly point-out, still requires a delivery system, a detonation device and fuel. Take any one away and there is no complete weapons system. Iran does not have a complete weapons system.

I do concur that Iran has the prerequisite knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSA's) to build a complete weapons system, as do many countries; however, there is no indication that they have gone there yet.

A person with genuine clandestine experience would never phrase it this way; they would state: "given that most sites have not been inspected, we do not have first-hand experience on their weapons, but with their work on nuclear triggers, the massive volume of highly enriched uranium, and the existence of a blast chamber, it would appear they have either completed a weapon, or could do so quickly."

(COMMENT)

Like I said, I've never been a member of the clandestine services. But no matter how you phrase it, it is all about content; not tradecraft vocabulary or intelligence syntax. And it must be credible; being both sound and valid.

• There is no evidence that Iran has made anything even approaching Weapons Grade (WG) material. Anything below 30% enrichment is simply insufficient. But they appear to have that capability; should they decide to do so.
  
• The recent articles released concerning the "Blast Chamber" seem to be computer animations of a conceptual project. The are not images of an actual device. The animations are reasonably accurate, but not detailed. If mini-tests were conducted, the radiation footprint would be obvious. There is an intent. We are just not sure what the intent is yet. But the more information that comes to light that suggest Iran is close to the development of a weapon, the stronger their cards become at the negotiation table.
  
• There is no reason to believe that Iran has a "massive volume of highly enriched uranium" as you suggest. The IAEA, and most of the intelligence activities estimate Iran could have acquired about 85 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 20% in April 2012; maybe 100 kg by the end of June/July. But that is not WG material. However, the accumulated stocks seem to exceed current reactor needs.
  
• No one has suggested that Iran has constructed a nuclear weapon. At this point, it is about the "break-out" volume. This revolves around the scenario that by limiting the amount of material to reactor needs and below the 20% enrichment mark (as low as the P5+1 can negotiate - some like the 5% level), Iran could not possibly "break-out" and rush the complete assembly, test, and delivery system deployment before the US can detect and neutralize the effort. So NO, Iran is not in a position to "do so quickly" as you suggest. The Western Strategy (P5+1) is built around this threshold as a trip-wire.

Most Respectfully,
R

 

[dilloduck]

If Israel wants Iran bombed for whatever reason they should do it themselves.

 

[RoccoR]

amir, et al,

There is a lot here for which we are in agreement.

Rocco R, few trust Iran claim that their nuclear facilities are built for peaceful purposes.

(COMMENT)

Yes, I get that distinct impression.

I personally believe their ambition to be a nuclear power is derived from their interest to be a regional power therefore taken seriously. I also believe they want to use it as a bargaining chip in addition to divert the average Iranian attention from the misery it's brought them in the last three decades.

(COMMENT)

Oh yes. It certain is about power and Regional Influence. And it wants to supplant the US as the Gulf Region protector.

Mullahs aren't that stupid. They realize in a best case scenario they can only build very few nukes and if they use them they'd be showered with hundreds.

(COMMENT)

Agreed!

Those who lived among or dealt with Mid Easterners can tell you they bluff all the time.
Lots and lots of big threatening words but very little action.

(COMMENT)

Also agreed. But they play well. They know exactly which string to pull in order to rattle regional chains.

It's simple. An external threat unifies the population hence the regime can hang on longer.

(COMMENT)

May be! I'm not sure what the Iranian society tends to think. What I see is that the Ruling Government has a much more feared and diabolical internal security apparatus than the Shah and SAVAK. And they learned from the Shah's mistakes.

Most Respectfully,
R

 

[Billo_Really]

They are ALREADY nuclear, what exactly is israel/the West waiting for?

Proof!

 

[Billo_Really]

People talk about an Israeli strike on Iran, even after Israeli DM and US Defense Secretary admit Iran has not weaponized its program...

Here's Israeli DM's comment...

Defense Minister Ehud Barak:

...on Jan. 18, the day before U.S. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey arrived for talks in Israel, Israeli Defense Minister Barak gave an interview to Israeli Army radio in which he addressed with striking candor how he assesses Iran’s nuclear program. It was not the normal pabulum.

Question: Is it Israel’s judgment that Iran has not yet decided to turn its nuclear potential into weapons of mass destruction?

Barak: … confusion stems from the fact that people ask whether Iran is determined to break out from the control [inspection] regime right now … in an attempt to obtain nuclear weapons or an operable installation as quickly as possible. Apparently that is not the case. …​

Question: How long will it take from the moment Iran decides to turn it into effective weapons until it has nuclear warheads?

Barak: I don’t know; one has to estimate. … Some say a year, others say 18 months. It doesn’t really matter. To do that, Iran would have to announce it is leaving the [UN International Atomic Energy Agency] inspection regime and stop. responding to IAEA’s criticism, etc​

Here's US DS's comment...

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta:

...on Jan. 8, Defense Secretary Panetta told Bob Schieffer on “Face the Nation” that “the responsible thing to do right now is to keep putting diplomatic and economic pressure on them [the Iranians] … and to make sure that they do not make the decision to proceed with the development of a nuclear weapon.”

Panetta was making the implicit point that the Iranians had not made that decision, but just in case someone might miss his meaning, Panetta posed the direct question to himself: “Are they [the Iranians] trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No.”

So there it is, confirmation from Israel and the US, that Iran doesn't have the bomb and has not weaponized their program.

 

[RoccoR]

et al,

As I said earlier, don't assume our Intelligence resources are deaf, dumb and blind.

This is based on the assumption that all the basic eyes and ears (intelligence systems, networks, and agencies close to the subject) have failed to assess the Iranian threat successfully and accurately.

(COMMENT)

It would appear that the Iranian were caught by overhead platforms (IMINT/MASINT) doing some very suspicious cleaning up one of the suspect sites (Parchin Military Complex).

Evidently, a couple buildings were demolished and heavy equipment was seen engaged in earthmoving operations. While not a smoking gun, fit with other circumstantial evidence, it is strengthening a case.

The Iranians seem to be stalling the re-institution of IAEA Inspections until they get the area cleaned-up and clear of forensic evidence that could demonstrate the Iranians were testing military applications of their nuclear technology. But it also appears that Western Intelligence already had this site under surveillance for quite some time.

The Iranians seem to think that they are close to attaining what they wanted out of the P5+1 negotiations and are willing to halt R&D into the military application of their technology.

(SIDEBAR)

There is a secondary implication if military R&D is confirmed. It would demonstrate that the public Islamic FATWA by the Supreme Leader - was much less than honest - and that an Islamic decree the the Islamic Republic based on the Quran is not worth the paper on which it was written.

While many already believed that the Supreme Leader would openly lie using his Islamic Leadership Credentials as cover and collateral; if the IAEA Inspection finds evidence of military R&D, it will establish that the Islamic Leaders will lie and use their religion to shield them.

I am just wondering if it will make any difference to the greater Islamic Community.

Most Respectfully,
R