Is Obamacare responsible for slow job growth?

[Conservative]

interesting opinion piece on the effects of Obamacare on the economy, regardless of the source...

Analysis: Job Growth Was 10-Fold Higher Before the Democrats Passed Obamacare | The Weekly Standard

Obamacare “discourages employers from hiring in several ways:

• Businesses with fewer than 50 workers have a strong incentive to maintain this size, which allows them to avoid the mandate to provide government-approved health coverage or face a penalty;
  
• “Businesses with more than 50 workers will see their costs for health coverage rise — they must purchase more expensive government-approved insurance or pay a penalty; and
  
• “Employers face considerable uncertainty about what constitutes qualifying health coverage and what it will cost. They also do not know what the health care market or their health care costs will look like in four years. This makes planning for the future difficult.”[/

“The fact that improvements in the job market ground to a halt after [Democrats] passed Obamacare does not prove that the health care law caused [this result] — correlation cannot prove causation. However, the fact does lend strong weight to the voices of businesses who say that the law is preventing hiring.”

 

[william the wie]

To some degree yes.

 

[Greenbeard]

• Businesses with fewer than 50 workers have a strong incentive to maintain this size, which allows them to avoid the mandate to provide government-approved health coverage or face a penalty;

The vast majority of businesses that make it to and past the 50-employee mark offer insurance (nationally, >96% of firms with 50 or more employees provide insurance coverage), meaning this disincentive doesn't exist for them. On the margins it will be a factor for those that don't but the magnitude of the effect you're postulating is a bit silly.

• “Businesses with more than 50 workers will see their costs for health coverage rise — they must purchase more expensive government-approved insurance or pay a penalty;

More than half of all folks with insurance are on self-insured plans; the vast majority of people at large firms are in self-insured plans. Self-insured plans don't need to offer "government-approved insurance," which one assumes refers to the still-undefined essential benefits package being discussed by the Institute of Medicine right now.

• “Employers face considerable uncertainty about what constitutes qualifying health coverage and what it will cost. They also do not know what the health care market or their health care costs will look like in four years. This makes planning for the future difficult.”

Small businesses can buy insurance through SHOP exchanges being set up in every state. Depending on how the state legislature wants to design it, that exchange for small businesses can operate under an employee choice model (like Utah's existing exchange). That means a defined contribution from the employer with a broad range of plan options for the employee. The employee then pays the difference between the cost of the plan he chooses and his employer's contribution. This is different from current set-ups in which the employer chooses the plan and then faces little shield from rising costs, little ability to shift the decision-making impetus in the face of rising costs to the employee (other than by relying on greater cost-sharing) and, yes, little certainty about future costs.

Greater certainty for employers, greater choice and personal responsibility for employees. Win-win, eh?

 

[rdean]

Weird the way right wingers mind thinks. Based on "opinion" "gut feeling" and "imagination".

 

[Patrick2]

Weird the way right wingers mind thinks. Based on "opinion" "gut feeling" and "imagination".

You have no arguments, facts, or debate - you lose.

 

[HenryBHough]

Evidence I have observed suggests that more jobs are being added than are being tallied. Said jobs are paid in cash, "under the counter", by businesses whose income is predominantly in cash. The owners cannot afford continually increasing unemployment taxes and live in fear of the cost of mandatory Obamacare or fines for not buying in. They want and need workers and are willing to pay for them but absolutely fear leaving any paper trail.

Sooner or later the Obamatopo will catch them but the potential reward is sufficient that they're willing to risk it. Of course some ARE doing CYA by making contributions, by check, to The Democrat National Committee....buying a primitive form of protection.

 

[Care4all]

looks like the Stimulus worked to me..... but when the dollars being pushed in to the economy began to dribble down, so did the number of hirings....

I suppose there is MORE than one way to look at this.....

 

[rdean]

looks like the Stimulus worked to me..... but when the dollars being pushed in to the economy began to dribble down, so did the number of hirings....

I suppose there is MORE than one way to look at this.....

Actually, way too much of it were tax breaks. There was the Bush tax cuts passed through reconciliation. Then the Bush tax extensions Obama agreed to, otherwise, Republicans were going to cut unemployment for millions of Americans who had just lost their jobs as victims of the Bush/Republican economy. The 12 largest American corporations paid zero in taxes and got back billions, I guess because they give money to Republicans.

Finally, Republicans only agreed to the stimulus if it included tax cuts and tax breaks. And what did it achieve?

Now this is what's hilarious. Republicans are actually running against their own ruinous policies. And their NEW policies? Tax cuts for the rich and tax breaks and subsidies for companies. Wait a second. Didn't we just do that?