Is It Too Late?

[jwoodie]

I am starting to give up hope (and lose interest) that anything can be done to reverse our economic decline. We seem to be on a set course through 2016, after which our financial obligations and debt will have exceeded any reasonable expectation of our economy's ability to support.

Are we like a hopelessly underwater homeowner who lost his job and has been putting his mortgage payments on a credit card? Will we keep doing this until we hit our credit limit and then wait for our creditors to foreclose? I know people who have done this and came out pretty well, so maybe this is the way to go.

Seriously, do any of you, Left or Right, think we can keep on this course indefinitely? If not, what are our options, or is it too late?

 

[FA_Q2]

It is not to late and it is to late.

What I mean by that is that we can make changes that would deal with this problem BUT we simply are not going to. No one in Washington – and I really means no one – want to actually fix this problem. All the suggestions and demands that I hear from people all center around the same thing – someone else. I just got done listening to a centrist demanding that taxes go up on, get this, everyone BUT himself poor rich etc. The worst part is that he didn’t even recognize that he was asking for this. In the same breath, he bitched about how the rich don’t pay enough and the poor get money back yet HE pays to little taxes. On that same vein of conversation, the elderly want welfare and other programs destroyed but don’t touch their Medicare or SS. The poor want the rich to pay more and an end to corporate welfare but don’t you touch the welfare or unemployment benefits. The Oil industry wants you to end this bullshit green energy payoff but payment to oil companies for discovery is a good thing. Farmers want corporate welfare eliminated BUT farm subsidies are different….

Basically it boils down to a lot of people demanding that THEIR government cheese is good but it is everyone else that is taking unfairly and should be stopped. The actual person that believes in true small government and freedom is VERY rare. I mean VERY VERY VERY rare.

 

[oldfart]

I am starting to give up hope (and lose interest) that anything can be done to reverse our economic decline.

First to the existential question: of course it is too late. It is always too late.

Second, in 2008 and 2009 I had a lot of people on another board very interested in the economic questions of the day. Many people were afraid and did not know what to do. Now virtually all of them do not give a shit. They are resigned to the fact that their lives and the lives of their children's children are probably ruined forever. Faith in the political system to be able to begin to climb out of the hole is "less than zero".

We seem to be on a set course through 2016, after which our financial obligations and debt will have exceeded any reasonable expectation of our economy's ability to support.

Poppycock and balderdash. If we give up acting like the flagellant orders during the Black Death, this whole mess could straighten out in less than a year. All this misery is inflicted on the great majority of society by a small elite of policymakers.

Seriously, do any of you, Left or Right, think we can keep on this course indefinitely? If not, what are our options, or is it too late?

Of course we can keep on this course. Some folks are doing very well by staying this course. The rest of us are displaying an infinite capacity to accept decade after decade of falling standards of living. The Irish Famine never killed enough Irishmen to spark a revolution (at least not in the following decades) or to cause a change in government policy. As Johnathan Swift famously noted, we are more likely to accept cannibalism of small children than to raise the poor tax.

 

[Rozman]

The focus of the administration,the Democrat party and most of the media which is just an extension
of the WH communications department is social issues.Guns and gays.

Not too much interest in a stagnant economy and crushing debt.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Is It Too Late?

No.

And no one is proposing we “keep on this course indefinitely.”

As soon as economic recovery is realized we can address the deficit.

Economic recovery and the deficit are two separate and distinct issues; indeed, attempting to balance the budget now won’t contribute to recovery, and could in all likelihood jeopardize it.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

As long as Americans play cheerleader to their party and believe it is all the other party's fault - which is exactly what they want us to do...then absolutely it is too late.
We have seen nothing yet. Currently this administration is outright handing $85,000,000,000 PER MONTH to the central banks to maintain the facade of Wall Street. On top of that they threw $trillions at the economy and here we still are.
We are currently in an oligarchy. Period. We are not a republic, not for a long time. And a deaf/dumb/blind divided public plays right into the hands of the corrupt system. And that is also not going to change.
We are in a transitional phase in this country. We will see some pretty nasty things coming soon. Of that, I have zero doubt.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

Is It Too Late?

No.

And no one is proposing we “keep on this course indefinitely.”

As soon as economic recovery is realized we can address the deficit.

Economic recovery and the deficit are two separate and distinct issues; indeed, attempting to balance the budget now won’t contribute to recovery, and could in all likelihood jeopardize it.

It has been proven over and over again that the Government ( any government) can not BUY its way out of this problem. Meanwhile Obama and cohorts keep passing or enacting business crushing policies via Congress or the Executive order.

Ask Japan how well it went for them a few years back when they spent 10 years trying to buy themselves out of the same problems with Government money.

 

[FA_Q2]

Seriously, do any of you, Left or Right, think we can keep on this course indefinitely? If not, what are our options, or is it too late?

Of course we can keep on this course. Some folks are doing very well by staying this course. The rest of us are displaying an infinite capacity to accept decade after decade of falling standards of living. The Irish Famine never killed enough Irishmen to spark a revolution (at least not in the following decades) or to cause a change in government policy. As Johnathan Swift famously noted, we are more likely to accept cannibalism of small children than to raise the poor tax.[/QUOTE]

Is It Too Late?

No.

And no one is proposing we “keep on this course indefinitely.”

As soon as economic recovery is realized we can address the deficit.

Economic recovery and the deficit are two separate and distinct issues; indeed, attempting to balance the budget now won’t contribute to recovery, and could in all likelihood jeopardize it.

The two problems are separate but they are connected.

The truth is that this government has spent and increased the deficit by a greater percentage than the growth of the economy virtually every single year. There are a VERY few years that such has not happened and those were facades, times when the economy was growing faster than it should and a fall happened shortly after.

The reason why we are in this mess is because we spent our way out of previous economic hardships but they were not preceded by the massive debt that we have incurred. As Keynesian Economics advocates, you are SUPPOSED to pay that debt incurred from a large recession during the good times. An important part of a stable economic plan that we have, as a nation, simply ignored.

Simply put, debt is ONLY sustainable indefinitely IF economic growth outpaces it. We have ignored that fact and now we are beginning to see the results. Beginning mind you, we are nowhere near the end of this hole.

Further, we are not taking on an ever increasing debt load as well as we INCREASE our promises for the future. If you really believe that we can continue on this trend or that we will address the problems when the good times return, history is simply against you.

 

[Circe]

We are in a robust recovery right now; stock market soaring, house prices going up ---

I don't know what you are complaining about.

In Europe they are going into another double-dip recession, unemployment in double digits and rising, no credit, unstable banks and governments. Now THEY have a situation.

This bad and long recession we are coming out of was wholly the Dems fault with their Frank--Dodd "let's roll the dice!" requirements that housing be supplied to poor people via liar loans they couldn't or wouldn't pay. We crashed the world economy with that little act, including Europe, so we are getting off darn easy and should be glad things aren't as bad as we deserve.

 

[FA_Q2]

We are in a robust recovery right now; stock market soaring, house prices going up ---

I don't know what you are complaining about.

In Europe they are going into another double-dip recession, unemployment in double digits and rising, no credit, unstable banks and governments. Now THEY have a situation.

This bad and long recession we are coming out of was wholly the Dems fault with their Frank--Dodd "let's roll the dice!" requirements that housing be supplied to poor people via liar loans they couldn't or wouldn't pay. We crashed the world economy with that little act, including Europe, so we are getting off darn easy and should be glad things aren't as bad as we deserve.

?

No, it was not wholly the responsibility of one party.

Truth be told, this crash was IDENTICAL to the last. Same problem, different product. The bad part is that this product was more readily available. A person I trust that predicted the last 2 busts thinks that commodities are next and I am apt to believe him. Oil in particular.

 

[Circe]

Truth be told, this crash was IDENTICAL to the last. Same problem, different product. The bad part is that this product was more readily available. A person I trust that predicted the last 2 busts thinks that commodities are next and I am apt to believe him. Oil in particular.

Are you saying this one and the dotcom bust were both asset bubbles that broke?

Could be a good way to look at it.

Though I'm still breathing fire about the housing scam. That certainly did cause a LOT of trouble. But it's true it was an asset bubble.

I have not noticed oil going into a bubble, but I haven't been looking. Other commodities?

 

[Katzndogz]

This is not a robust recovery. It is an anemic hold on the static. The stock market is roaring because the government is printing money at the fastest rate in history. The housing market is improving because of expressed plans to help people who don't pay their bills buy houses. Exactly the same thing that caused housing prices to rise last time around.

 

[Circe]

This is not a robust recovery. It is an anemic hold on the static. The stock market is roaring because the government is printing money at the fastest rate in history. The housing market is improving because of expressed plans to help people who don't pay their bills buy houses. Exactly the same thing that caused housing prices to rise last time around.

Yes, well, you may be right. It LOOKS like a robust recovery, but I agree, I'm mostly looking at the stock market.

And I should pay more attention to this incredible run of cheap credit going on. Boy, that'll monetize that nasty ol' deficit.

Here's another asset bubble for you all: college costs. Student loans. Going out of sight: classic asset bubble, but a sort of weird commodity for it. It's happening, though. Can't be any weirder than tulip bulbs, I guess.

 

[FA_Q2]

Truth be told, this crash was IDENTICAL to the last. Same problem, different product. The bad part is that this product was more readily available. A person I trust that predicted the last 2 busts thinks that commodities are next and I am apt to believe him. Oil in particular.

Are you saying this one and the dotcom bust were both asset bubbles that broke?

Could be a good way to look at it.

Though I'm still breathing fire about the housing scam. That certainly did cause a LOT of trouble. But it's true it was an asset bubble.

I have not noticed oil going into a bubble, but I haven't been looking. Other commodities?

More than just asset bubbles. They were directly ties to ‘perceived’ values of products that were worthless. In the dot com bubble, companies were assigning an arbitrary vale to their stocks, splitting them when they needed more money and people were swallowing it hook line and sinker without an single cent in profit to back it up. Then they would go on about ‘market share’ as though that was a replacement for profit. I can think of only ONE company that it worked for and there was real assets to tie into that, not worthless web sites and other such junk. Then you ran into the same exact problem of bundling the products and increasing their value, sometimes creating a product that was realistically worth less than 1/30 of actual value. The EXACT same thing happened in the housing bubble where loans were made that no one in their right mind would think could be paid off and then they were bundles and increased in value even though they were worthless.

The one thing that we did accomplish after the last bust was to ensure that such products would be forever covered by the government when the next one occurs (at least for the rich because the poor are just going to get shafted by it again).

My friend believes that oil will be next but I don’t know. He is damn good at this and truthfully I don’t watch that closely to be as knowledgeable as he is. Gold would not surprise me though. Too many people are buying it up by the truckloads and gold itself is damn near worthless. When the commercials start to air, you already missed the boat. At least oil and many other commodities have intrinsic value in that they can be consumed. Gold only has value for a few electronic applications and in its rarity. Quite frankly, rarity does not matter when people are hungry.

 

[FA_Q2]

Here's another asset bubble for you all: college costs. Student loans. Going out of sight: classic asset bubble, but a sort of weird commodity for it. It's happening, though. Can't be any weirder than tulip bulbs, I guess.

THAT is going to be something also. Now that government has taken that industry over though, they are going to play that whole thing off as though it never happened.

 

[Dugdale_Jukes]

Two inputs are driving stock prices, neither is related to the US domestic economy, which hasn't been real since about 1983 or maybe 1984, and in a state of almost incredible risk; risk almost certainly equal to the risks of 2008 because of the constant state of recession for about 33% of Americans since then.

1. speculators - most infamously, short sellers - doubling down, which has the perverse effect of driving prices up in the short term (some believe, perhaps accurately, as the FED buys to drive shorts back)
2. foreign profits now drive the US stock markets too much for any US stock market to be an accurate indicator of either the present or the near term future of the US economy
​

A third, even less savory factor, is some investment houses are investing because the coming correction gives them a public place to prove off-book losses in 2008-2009. In other words a fair number of small investors have in the last year had their accounts churned for the purpose of being butchered in the next correction.

Anyone familiar with inventory adjustments understands what the third item is: a chance to clean up the books publicly of inventory that has been missing all along. It is a little more complicated in the securities industry, but the idea is the same. And the longer these folks can pump up the market, the more bad paper they can either clean up with profits or justify keeping at risk. It's win-win in the securities industry from here to the correction no matter what happens.

Only readers here and other ordinary people with 401ks stand to lose.

 

[editec]

I am starting to give up hope (and lose interest) that anything can be done to reverse our economic decline. We seem to be on a set course through 2016, after which our financial obligations and debt will have exceeded any reasonable expectation of our economy's ability to support.

Are we like a hopelessly underwater homeowner who lost his job and has been putting his mortgage payments on a credit card? Will we keep doing this until we hit our credit limit and then wait for our creditors to foreclose? I know people who have done this and came out pretty well, so maybe this is the way to go.

Seriously, do any of you, Left or Right, think we can keep on this course indefinitely? If not, what are our options, or is it too late?

Do NOT lose hope.

As the fiscal mess is ENTIRELY MANMADE, this contrivance we call the national debt is as FAKE as our democracy.

No, I am not being glib, I am not kidding one bit.

There is more than enough wealth. its the system we have of sharing it that must be solved.

 

[midcan5]

This thread and several comments remind me of an attitude I just can't figure out? It's the new 'American can't do attitude.' Instead of solutions you get wringing of hands and groans the end is near. Surely the great depression was worse, I wonder did Americans then cry about it? FDR and the war got America through that failure of capitalism, and today both the stimulus and the reversal of Bush's war spending and unfair tax policies are helping. But lots more can be done. Support America rather than whining, buy American made and shop where wages support people not just corporations. If you call a company and get an overseas worker ask why, ask for an American and tell the company. Support higher taxes on the greedy who take but do not give. Read the the link in my Sig if you doubt that works. And much of the debt came from republican policy, blaming Obama is off base and wrong even though republican propaganda manages that message. See articles below, open your eyes and you too shall see.

And read about the GD so you get some sense of reality. Timeline of the Great Depression and Summary


"This is when the Republican Party set its trap. Meeting in closed sessions at the beginning of the Obama regime, the party of tax cuts for the rich, unfunded wars, and the largest deficit in the history of the country redefined itself. It suddenly became the party of deficit reduction through lean government joined to supreme confidence in unregulated financial and corporate markets. It even opposed the bail out of General Motors and Chrysler, though these actions stopped unemployment from reaching a dangerous tipping point, allowed the two companies time to reconstruct themselves, and enabled them to pay back the loans within two years–-creating one of the most successful bailouts in the history of Euro-American economic life." William E. Connolly See The Contemporary Condition: The Republican Pincer Machine


"We do face an entitlement crisis, then. But it is not the one identified by Fox News and the Neoliberal Right. It is the one concealed by the nomenclature and attacks by the Right. What’s more, as the recent economic meltdown in 2008 demonstrated, these entitlements are not only unjust, they are extremely dangerous. A class entitlement to escape regulation while putting at risk a whole society, and indeed world, is nothing to sneeze at. And as we have seen most recently, even if a world wide depression is avoided after such a meltdown, its costs and sacrifices gradually trickle down the social ladder until they, too, reach those at the middle and bottom layers of society. So, the rich and the superrich feel entitled to monopolize the largesse when growth occurs and to pass down the costs of their adventurism when the bottom falls out. That is a hell of a lot of entitlement. That is precisely why so many are so eager to publicize the false version of “the entitlement society” today, within state legislatures controlled by the Republican Party, through Superpacs allowed by the gang of five neoliberals on the Supreme Court, and on the 24 hour News Media. Reduce the deficit, they chant, by curtailing programs supporting the middle and poor classes. Quietly accept the double-trickle down process. But don’t you dare touch the entitlements of the rich that put everyone else at risk." William E. Connolly The Contemporary Condition: The Real Entitlement Crisis

 

[editec]

The RULES of the game lead us into this ACCOUNTING DISASTER.

The solution is to change the rules of the game.

Again, no I am NOT kidding.

Its time to rewrite the social contract.

Capitalism is a social contract that can easily be modified to work better than our contract is working today.

 

[FA_Q2]

I am starting to give up hope (and lose interest) that anything can be done to reverse our economic decline. We seem to be on a set course through 2016, after which our financial obligations and debt will have exceeded any reasonable expectation of our economy's ability to support.

Are we like a hopelessly underwater homeowner who lost his job and has been putting his mortgage payments on a credit card? Will we keep doing this until we hit our credit limit and then wait for our creditors to foreclose? I know people who have done this and came out pretty well, so maybe this is the way to go.

Seriously, do any of you, Left or Right, think we can keep on this course indefinitely? If not, what are our options, or is it too late?

Do NOT lose hope.

As the fiscal mess is ENTIRELY MANMADE, this contrivance we call the national debt is as FAKE as our democracy.

No, I am not being glib, I am not kidding one bit.

There is more than enough wealth. its the system we have of sharing it that must be solved.

So, in your opinion, we don’t have a debt problem because the real problem is that we don’t take enough wealth from the people and redistribute it?

Sorry but that is crazy. There is no redistribution problem. We have been redistributing the crap out of our wealth for decades. It is not working. We have a real deficit problem. The government has outgrown the economy almost every single year, tax receipts have fully recovered already and we are still running trillion dollar debts. Tax receipts hit 2.4 trillion in 2012 and have only been higher in 2 other years. 07-08 they were 2.5 and that was entirely based on a false economy of lies.

There is a REAL deficit problem and I cannot fathom how you can ignore it? How do you rationalize the debt increasing a trillion dollars a year as meaningless? Our spending level a full 45 percent over receipts!

That is NOT sustainable and yet we don’t see anything pointing to a change any time soon. If only we could steal more from people to pay that off right? That does not work. I am sorry but there is no way to tax our way to that king of cash.